Why task ahead will be tough for the next AU Commission chairperson

The implementation of the AU Agenda 2063 faces challenges, with some of the targets already missed. Africa is particularly concerned about losing multilateral deals such as economic partnership agreements, strategic trade and investment partnerships, and even the good old African Growth Opportunity Act (Agoa).

As Trump effects these changes while implementing his America First agenda, there are fears that other Western partners could follow suit.

Agoa, which has enabled the eligible African countries to export some of their produce to the US without paying taxes since 2000, will be a key source of concern for the AUC as it is not clear as to whether Trump will renew it.

Dr Benson Musila, a political scientist and lecturer at Riara University in Nairobi, says the declarations by Washington and specifically on Agoa, should be a cause for worry for Africa.

“We can argue whether Agoa has served Africa or not, but that’s besides the point. It is whether it will be renewed. That’s something of concern to Africa, and in this case the African Union, and more specifically the chairperson,” he said.

“Trump is threatening to banish the Brics, and Africa, Russia and all those countries want to strengthen the Brics, because that’s probably the only hope. And with South Africa being the chair of the G20, it now becomes an issue,” the don said.

President Trump said on Thursday that Brics+ nations could face 100 percent tariffs from the United States “if they want to play games with the dollar."

South Africa is part of Brics+, an alliance of major developing countries, originally comprising itself, Brazil, Russia, India and China, that is attempting to challenge the political and economic power of the wealthier nations of North America and Western Europe. Ethiopia and Egypt are also members.

Security

The continent is also faced with security problems in the Sahel, Central Africa, and the Horn of Africa at a time when the deadline the AU had set for silencing of guns long passed and was pushed to 2030.

The conflicts in Sudan, eastern Congo and Somalia are of grave concern, and the AU would need to work with the UN and economic blocs such as Igad, EAC and SADC to find a way to silence the guns.

Read: Fears mount as M23 capture towns outside Bukavu

In the race to fill the AUC chair seat after the exit of Chadian Moussa Faki Mahamat, one school of thought has been that a political solution is required to these conflicts and therefore a dyed-in-the-wool politician at the AUC may be better placed to deal with it.

The three candidates, former prime minister of Kenya Raila Odinga, Djibouti Foreign Affairs minister Ali Youssouf and former Foreign minister Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar, had during their campaigns, highlighted their plans for peace and security on the continent. The vision of the winner of the seat will also have to align with the recommendations of Kenya President William Ruto, the champion of AU reforms.

President Ruto in January held a high-level retreat of the extended Bureau of the African Union Institutional Reforms in Nairobi, and said it was necessary for the AU to “reimagine, rethink, reorganise” its peace and security architecture.

“As things stand today, Africa is a big theatre of conflict and, unfortunately, terrorism. And our response has been uncoordinated, under sourced and not very well planned,” he said.

The retreat, featuring presidents Azali Assoumani (Comoros), Umaro Sissoco Embalo (Guinea Bissau), Taye Atske Selassie (Ethiopia) and John Dramani Mahama (Ghana) and outgoing AUC chair Moussa Faki, recommended that “a high-level panel interrogate our peace and security infrastructure, including the invoice across the continent, the infrastructure around the Africa Union Commission, the Peace and Security Fund, and also the effects of Resolution, 29, 17, that now makes it possible for African-led peace efforts to be funded by the United Nations with the resolution of the United Nations Security Council.”

The man who replaces Faki will have to push this to fruition.

One of his headaches will be the Sudan conflict, now approaching its second anniversary. A High-Level Humanitarian Conference was convened on Friday in Addis Ababa, on the sidelines of the Summit, bringing together key regional and international actors to mobilise resources for Sudan and address the devastating humanitarian crisis caused by the war under the auspices of the AU, Igad, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The forum featured UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, President Ruto, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan, Mr Faki, and Igad Secretary-General Workneh Gebeyehu.

They highlighted the scale of the crisis in Sudan, describing it as one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world today. Over half of Sudan’s population is facing food insecurity, with millions on the brink of famine, while the war has displaced more than 11 million people, collapsed the healthcare system, and led to the spread of preventable diseases.

The dire situation demands immediate and coordinated regional and global intervention, they stressed, emphasising that it is time to end the war and ensure humanitarian aid reaches those in desperate need.

Ruto also announced that Kenya would honour its pledge of $1 million in humanitarian aid for Sudan, a commitment made during the Sudan Humanitarian Pledging Conference in Paris in April 2024. He emphasized that humanitarian aid must go hand-in-hand with diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.

He also condemned obstruction to humanitarian access by warring factions, stressing that all parties must allow the free movement of humanitarian convoys, enable healthcare workers to operate, and permit the resumption of agricultural activities to improve food security.

The AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) was set to meet in Addis to discuss the situation in eastern DRC, amid fears that the fall of Bukavu, South Kivu’s provincial capital, was nigh.

The fighting in South Kivu has created fears in neighbouring Burundi which has its forces deployed in eastern DRC as part of a bilateral agreement with the Congolese government. The UN warned that the conflict could spill over beyond Congo borders.

Calls for ceasefire by two economic blocs, EAC and SADC, have largely been ignored. These dimensions of the volatile situation necessitate urgent de-escalation initiatives by the AU, building on the decisions that the PSC ministers adopted and the outcomes of the EAC-SADC summit that took place a week ago in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Read: M23 rebels take another town in eastern Congo despite ceasefire

The other issue of concern for the PSC is how to ameliorate the dire humanitarian situation in the conflict areas of DRC, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and the Sahel, which have some of the largest humanitarian crises in the world.

The worsening humanitarian situation has been compounded by the disruption of critical infrastructure and basic services.

The AU is a key source of support for the Somali government as it works to build up its security forces and battle al-Shabaab insurgency.

The AU peace mission, in place since 2007, is now in its third phase dubbed AU Support and Stabilisation Mission to Somalia (Aussom) which came into force in January 2025.

Aussom is essentially a continuation of the African Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) and Amisom before it. Mogadishu has not made sufficient progress in fighting al-Shabaab to go it alone.

Read: Same old script as new AU Somalia mission takes position

Whoever takes over from Faki will also have to deal with challenges in the Sahel. The AU is struggling to find a role for itself in the central Sahel, which has seen a rash of coups in recent years – six in the past three alone.

Efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to reverse the trend have failed.

Governance, democracy and justice

Another key issue that the new chair will need to wrestle with relates to the organisation’s role in promoting good governance in accordance with the Lomé principles.

At present, the AU has suspended Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, Gabon and Sudan after the military grabbed power in these countries.

Of the regimes in suspended countries, only the junta in Gabon has shown an interest in working to restore relations with the AU.

In their campaigns, the three contestants described their preferred conflict resolution plans. Mr Odinga said he would work with leaders to address the causes of instability, and promote functional institutions. Mr Youssouf said he would strengthen mediation and arbitration, and address the causes of conflict such as poverty.

Randriamandrato said he would pursue informational and strategic monitoring of mediation efforts.

President Paul Kagame’s reforms had seen creation of the Africa Peace Fund which has since mobilised some $400 million and influenced the United Nations Security Council to approve UN financing of three quarters of the AU peace operations.

During the 37th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the AU last year, the heads of state and government declared 2025 the “Year of Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations.”

The theme highlights the enduring impact of colonisation, trans-Atlantic slavery, and systemic discrimination on global inequality and Africa’s underdevelopment.

The reparations agenda aims to address historical injustices while tackling contemporary issues like systemic racism, economic exclusion, and Africa’s marginalisation in global decision-making. It represents a call for unity among Africans and the African diaspora to advocate for justice, equity, and redress, a role the AUC is expected to play.

As part of this agenda, President Ruto has recommended operationalisation of the Africa Court of Justice, and the appointment of judges so that by “June this year we can have a mechanism for conflict resolution on our continent.”

He said this move would ensure disputes between countries, institutions of the Africa Union, and a reference for the tribunals that currently exist are addressed.

“It is a very important forum that we have engaged in that will go all the way to a presentation on the Pan-African Parliament to make it much more accountable to agree on the election process of members of the Pan-African Parliament to look at the responsibility of the Pan-African Parliament to enact modern laws that will serve the greater interest of the continent and support institutions like the Africa continental free trade area,” he said.

Financial independence, regional trade and integration

African leaders have endorsed a plan to establish a homegrown credit rating agency in efforts to foster financial independence. The African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) will help counter bias among the existing global credit ratings that have long hindered the continent’s economic growth.

Read: African leaders back Ruto's push for home-grown credit rating agency

Africa loses $75 billion in opportunities due to biased credit ratings, according to the Africa Peer Review Mechanism and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

President Ruto, the champion of AU reforms, lamented that despite Africa’s natural wealth, fertile land, large diaspora remittances, and vast carbon sinks, credit agencies have issued 94 percent of downgrades in the past decade, granting investment-grade status to only two African nations.

He said that the potential impact of the AfCRA would be profound, quoting research that shows that a one-level improvement in Africa’s average credit rating would unlock $15.5 billion in additional funding.

“This alone would outstrip Official Development Assistance by 12 percent and meet 80 percent of Africa’s infrastructure needs. The opportunity is within our grasp, and we must seize it,” Ruto told the high-level Presidential Dialogue on the Establishment of the Africa Credit Rating Agency.

Alongside this are calls for a visa-free continent, with the AUC and the African Development Bank (AfDB) urging governments to fast-track the removal of visa restrictions that hinder regional integration, trade and economic growth.

AU officials, policymakers and business leaders highlighted the contradiction between Africa’s regional integration goals and the reality that many Africans still need visas to travel across the continent.

“We cannot talk about a united Africa if Africans themselves cannot move freely within their own continent. It is time for our governments to evaluate what has worked and what has not worked,” said Ambassador Albert Mudenda Muchanga, African Union Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals.

He said that visa restrictions remain one of the biggest barriers to intra-African trade.

The Africa Visa Openness Index, a joint initiative by AfDB and the AUC, has consistently shown slow progress in easing travel restrictions, despite policy frameworks like the AU Free Movement Protocol and Agenda 2063’s vision of a borderless Africa.

The ninth edition of the index shows that while some countries, such as Rwanda, Gambia, Seychelles, Benin, and Ghana, have embraced visa-free policies, many remain restrictive.

“The vision of an integrated Africa will not happen by chance. It requires bold leadership and collective commitment to dismantle visa barriers,” said Nnenna Nwabufo, Vice-President for Regional Development, Integration and Business Delivery at AfDB.

With more than 50 percent of African nations requiring visas for Africans, restricted mobility hampers labour migration, business and trade, skills, and innovation, slowing development.

“If we truly believe in the AfCFTA, then free movement must be the backbone of our integration. We must align trade facilitation with mobility—because goods do not move themselves; people move them," said Prudence Sebahizi, Rwanda's Minister of Trade and Industry.

With the momentum building for change, the AU and AfDB announced the launch of the 2025 Visa-Free Roadshow, a campaign designed to engage policymakers, businesses, and civil society in accelerating visa liberalisation efforts across the continent.

The initiative aims to showcase success stories, highlight economic benefits, and push for political commitments to break down travel barriers.

Mr Odinga has envisioned a visa-free continent as one of his priority areas should he get elected.

Read: Collapse borders to promote trade, African leaders urge

Mr Odinga says he aspires to enhance intra-African trade, noting that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a transformative opportunity to establish a common market and boost intra-African trade.

“Currently, intra-African trade is paltry, the lowest among other continents, hindering our economic independence, and interdependence. I will advocate for open skies, visa policy harmonisation, and infrastructure development to facilitate seamless connectivity and movement of goods, and peoples across Africa,” Mr Odinga said.

Mr Randriamandrato advocates creation of a continental Customs union which he says would boost intra-Africa trade by more than 50 percent alongside infrastructure development.

Mr Youssouf promised to build socioeconomic development, including education, health and technology. All candidates acknowledged the role of infrastructure in achieving economic development.

The other areas that they will have to work hard at include, ensuring gender equity and combating climate change.