Raila Odinga and the AUC election. How does the vote work?
Kenya's Raila Odinga makes his remarks during the launch of his bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship candidate at State House, Nairobi on August 27, 2024.
Kenya’s former prime minister Raila Odinga may be a seasoned politician, but how much does he have left in the tank to cross the finish line in the race for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC)?
There’s no direct answer. But officials in Nairobi say his own political experience may be the best tool in his box right now.
The African Union will hold elections for the chairperson and commissioners on February 15, after the opening ceremony of the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of AU Heads of State, according to Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, who is also heading Odinga’s campaign team.
The chairmanship election could be decided by secret ballot, with the outright winner needing to secure at least two-thirds of the voting members in the Assembly. Either that, or it could go to subsequent rounds where the winner needs a simple majority. Sometimes, members can vote by acclamation also known as consensus, where they all agree on a candidate. The latter can be less acrimonious, but often tedious, as a single “no” can stall the vote and could lead to a delay or postponement of the election.
What happens if the election is postponed?
If the vote is postponed, it could add several months to the term of incumbent Moussa Faki Mahamat, which is due to end in February this year.
How are the other candidates faring?
Depending on how things go, each of the three candidates has a stake in the outcome. Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has been foreign minister since 2005, perhaps the longest-serving diplomat in the post on the continent.
Madagascar’s former foreign minister, Richard James Randriamandrato, was once an influential diplomat in the Francophonie, then his President fired him for voting against his capital’s desires at the UN General Assembly on the Russia-Ukraine war. That his country backed him for the race was either interesting or a way of getting him out of local politics.
Could this be the end of the road for Odinga in Kenyan politics?
For Odinga, the race is a new frontier: he has never competed abroad. It has implications for local politics, and yet his experience back at home may be the grit he needs.
At home, the former prime minister has made five unsuccessful attempts at the presidency: in the 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022 elections.
At 80, this AUC could be his last political battle, although he has insisted he will be available for other roles even if he loses the election.
“If we win, very good for us. If we lose, so what! We are here in Kenya, there will be basically other things for us to do.
“So, we are not worried about losing. But we are not competing to lose, but to win,” Mr Odinga said in a recent interview on Citizen TV.
Analysts argue that for Odinga, the AUC chairmanship could be the ‘crowning jewel’ of a career defined by grit.
Odinga says that he is transitioning from Kenyan to continental politics in his bid to chair the AUC, signalling his possible exit from active local politics.
“I will start working with the continent as soon as I’m elected...At the moment I am involved in the campaign but that doesn’t mean Kenya ceases to exist,” Mr Odinga said last year.
“I will not be very active in Kenyan politics from now on because I will continue to focus on the continental campaign. But it is a transitional period from active participation in Kenyan politics to the African continental politics.”
Odinga wrapped up his campaign in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) states on Thursday January 16, after holding talks with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Pretoria.
He had also met Botswana President Duma Gideon Boko in Gaborone and Lesotho Prime Minister Sam Matekane at State House in Materu.
Despite of the intense campaigning, none of the regional blocs have endorsed a candidate, making the tour of these countries’ capitals an obligation.
In Africa, regional economic blocs do not necessarily follow the pattern of regions established by the African Union. For example, while it is now the turn of the eastern region to contest the chairmanship of the African Union, some of its members belong to southern blocs.
Madagascar belongs to the SADC, even though it is considered ‘eastern’ by the AU. And as is tradition, some African countries belong to more than one regional bloc. Some of the blocs in Africa are
East African Community (EAC)
Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas)
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad)
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa)
Arab Maghreb Union (AMU)
Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD)
Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
A book on Odinga’s AUC bid
Kennedy Mongare, a former Kenyan senator for Nyamira County, argues that despite many challenges, Mr Odinga has a realistic chance of winning the regional post.
“Odinga’s unique political journey, his legacy as a Pan-African statesman and his ability to navigate complex political environments make him a compelling candidate for this important role,” Mongare says in a book he published this month, titled; How and Why Raila Odinga Can Win AUC Chairmanship Against All Hurdles.
He argues that Odinga’s “decade’s long experience as a reformist, democrat and political leader – combined with his vision for a more united and prosperous Africa aligns with the key responsibilities and objectives of the AUC chairmanship.”
“Odinga is not only qualified to take on this role, but his leadership could profoundly shape Africa’s future for the better.”
At home, Mongare says, Odinga’s political career, which spans more than four decades, has taught him how to ride political challenges as he has championed democracy, constitutional reform and social justice, giving him an edge over his rivals. During that time, he has been detained, worked with rivals, and learned how hard it is to win votes.
Africa’s agenda
At the AU, however, candidates are competing on how to end wars, tackle unemployment and stabilise the continent in an era of climate change. Odinga’s 10-point priority areas include: peace and security, infrastructure, economic transformation, harnessing Africa’s youth potential, gender equity and equality, and agricultural transformation.
“We must return unity to the top of our priorities. Without unity in a fast-consolidating and changing world, Africa will continue to be marginalised, exploited and irrelevant,” Odinga said recently.
“Africa’s Agenda 2063 cannot be achieved unless the multilateral normative frameworks that speak to marginalisation, exclusion and discrimination against women and girls are fully implemented.
“Throughout my life, I have been an indefatigable champion of the rights of women and girls. As chairperson of AUC, I will prioritise gender equity and equality, including opportunity, dignity, and security for women and girls across the continent.”
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