South Sudan peace talks in Nairobi adjourned, again, without deal

The South Sudan Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNoU), it said, requested an adjournment for further consultations.

“The eight Tumaini Protocols were developed through a process of sustained negotiations and had been agreed by the parties and stakeholders to include trust and confidence building, permanent ceasefire, security arrangements and reforms, humanitarian access and support, communal conflicts, armed civilians, and land disputes, economic recovery, resources. And financial management reforms, justice sector reform, transitional justice and accountability, permanent constitution-making process, and guarantors; only the protocol on responsibility sharing was outstanding” the communique said.

During the talks, negotiators adopted agenda and discussed the causes of the conflict in South Sudan, the relationship between the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) and the Tumaini Protocols, as well as responsibility sharing. The R-ARCSS was the peace deal signed in 2018, mediated by regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) which ended five years of civil war and created a coalition government of former warring factions, known as TGNoU.

But some groups refused to join in and have been labelled as hold-outs. These groups are the subject of Tumaini Initiative, which Kenya has been trying to mediate to be formally admitted into a structure of government.

Since May 2024, however, these talks brought hope and fears, with some in the TGNoU questioning whether they would bring a parallel peace deal to the 2018 one.

“The root causes of the conflict were extensively deliberated through a joint technical committee, summarising them as: political, governance and leadership crisis, power struggle, structural and institutional weaknesses, economic crisis and resource mismanagement, insecurity and militarisation of society, lack of social cohesion and historical factors, and external and geopolitical influences” the communique said.

The negotiating parties acknowledged that while the implementation of R-ARCSS is ongoing, it faces significant challenges. Given the acute human insecurity and humanitarian crisis in South Sudan, the mediation emphasised the need for effective mechanisms for implementation.

“The Mediation is of the view that there are three priority areas of critical importance necessary to ending the perpetual transition in South Sudan and ushering in a new dispensation. These priority areas are the unification of forces and security sector reforms, the permanent constitution-making process, and the holding of free, fair, credible, and transparent elections.”

An expert involved in the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that one of the issues that angered the Juba government was the recent formation of the United People’s Alliance (Upa). The unity government reportedly stated that it would not proceed with negotiations if the opposition alliance remained intact — a stance Upa has refused to change. Upa is led by R-SPLM leader Pagan Amum, with Gen Paul Malong and Gen Mario Laku as his deputies, and Lual Dau as secretary-general.

Read: South Sudan peace talks resume in Nairobi

To avoid a deadlock, the chief mediator appealed to all parties to set this issue aside for now and focus on the core agenda, an appeal that was accepted.

Upa seeks to replace the 2018 peace agreement with the Tumaini Initiative, a proposal the government strongly opposes. Juba maintains that the 2018 accord laid the foundation for the current government and has achieved significant progress, making it impossible to discard.

In contrast, Upa argues that the 2018 agreement has failed to address the real issues affecting South Sudanese.

Another major issue in the discussions is Gen Thomas Cirilo, whose forces remain active in Equatoria and along key roads, contributing to instability. The mediators have reached out to him, but Gen Cirilo has expressed concerns about Nairobi’s handling of key issues, particularly the reported abductions and kidnappings of opposition leaders. However, there is hope that he may join later, as the talks are addressing the root causes of conflict — the very reason he rebelled in the first place.

A source said that the government requested the adjournment to return to Juba, launch the two-year transitional period and develop a clear implementation matrix for the transition.