Turkiye pushes Somalia, Ethiopia close to a deal on sea access

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Ankara on Wednesday.

President Erdoğan, who has sought stronger ties with both Ethiopia and Somalia, including building the biggest diplomatic mission on African soil in Mogadishu, may be succeeding where other mediators have failed.

But it also signals efforts to resolve a crisis that could have been exploited by militant groups such as al-Shabaab and ISIS. 

A dispatch from Ankara said the leaders “reaffirmed their respect and commitment to one another’s sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity, as well as the principles enshrined in international law, the Charter of the United Nations and the Constitutive Act of the African Union.” This has been Mogadishu’s demand all along.

The statement also said the two sides agreed “to forgo and leave behind differences and contentious issues and forge ahead in a cooperative manner to pursue shared prosperity.”

But the dispatch did not directly refer to the MoU signed on January 1, 2024, but it says any further discussions for sea access will have Somalia’s sovereignty as an irreducible minimum. Somalia insists Somaliland is part of its territory, and Ethiopia could only negotiate with any of administrations in Somalia with a nod from Mogadishu.

Addis has in the past signed an MoU with Mogadishu to develop four ports, but didn’t follow through. But the latest quest for a seaport was more driven by security needs, especially in the Red Sea, which is closer to landlocked Ethiopia.

Read: Somalia, Ethiopia to resume talks on port deal under Turkey mediation

Commercially, Ethiopia has access to Djibouti as well as the Lamu Port in Kenya, and both countries vigorously pitched the facilities to Addis to have it tame its ambitions which experts saw as a threat to regional security.

“This significant accord marks a substantial step towards strengthening the longstanding social fabric between the two sisterly nations and demonstrates a commitment to resolving bilateral issues amicably,” said Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad).

Dr Workneh said the move will foster “stability and prosperity in the Horn of Africa.”

Idd Bedel Mohamed, a former Somali diplomat, now chair of the US-Somalia Business Council, said the agreement could be the basis to strengthen cooperation in other areas that were facing a risk.

“The progress achieved is expected to yield far-reaching benefits for the Horn of Africa and the broader international community. This is setback for some Somali actors who want to use foreign government to destabilise the country and region.”

The tension between Ethiopia and Somalia has been problematic, with their allies such as the Kenya and the US warning it could hurt intelligence sharing on violent extremists.

On December 15, the UN Security Council is due to discuss sanctions on al-Shabaab, as well as the mandate of the successor mission to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) to which Ethiopia and Kenya are troop contributors.

Atmis’ mandate expires on December 31, and Mogadishu, after the Somaliland MoU, had insisted that Ethiopia be excluded from the successor mission, African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom).

Some experts suggest that the next phase of talks involve regional bodies.

“While the outcome of Turkiye’s mediation is encouraging, the absence of the African Union and Igad in the process is a missed opportunity,” said Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a former spokesman of the Igad Executive Secretary, now a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London.

“The AU and Igad are not only stakeholders but also custodians of regional stability, with the mandate to mediate and ensure African solutions to African challenges. Their inclusion could have amplified regional ownership of the process and enhanced the prospects for lasting peace by embedding the agreement within a broader regional framework.”

Critics have in the past blamed the AU for failing to resolve other regional disputes.

Read: Somalia, Ethiopia in failed talks over sea MoU, but they were better than none

Sheekh said integrating the agreement into the broader regional agenda can “demonstrate their indispensability in maintaining peace and advancing development across Africa.”

Both sides are to start technical talks from February 2025 on how to grant Ethiopia’s rights to the sea while enhancing Somalia’s commercial viability of those seaports.

From the look of things, Turkiye avoided fronting the security needs of Ethiopia as the basis for sea access, instead focusing on the economics. Somalia conceded that Ethiopia should be granted such access.

The Ankara Agreement does not rule out a seaport in Somaliland. Indeed, Mogadishu’s beef with Ethiopia had been largely based on the fact that Addis Ababa promised to recognise Somaliland’s independence.

“They acknowledged the potentially diverse benefits that could be derived from Ethiopia’s assured access to and from the sea, whilst respecting the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” the dispatch said. 

The technical teams are to “finalise mutually advantageous commercial arrangements,” which will allow the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia “to enjoy reliable, secure and sustainable access to and from the sea, under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia.”

Tarekegn Bululta Godana, Ethiopia’s State Minister for Industry, said the new pact is profitable to both countries.

“This cooperation could potentially benefit both countries economically and geopolitically,” he said.

“Ethiopia's access to the sea through Somalia could facilitate trade and improve its economy by providing an outlet for exports and imports. The deal may also contribute to stability in the Horn of Africa and fostering regional cooperation.”