Kenya was this week drawn into the simmering dispute between the federal government of Somalia and the Jubbaland state administration, a clash that could potentially distract the Horn of Africa country from pursuing the militant group al-Shabaab.
And while Jubbaland has always been important to Kenya’s counter-terrorism strategy, Nairobi was forced to take in fleeing Somali troops after they met strong resistance from Jubbaland forces.
Kenya’s Interior Cabinet Secretary Raymond Omollo said the Somali National Army (SNA) troops had surrendered to Kenyan authorities and that Nairobi was planning to repatriate them over the weekend.
The revelation may have been an embarrassment for the Somali authorities, but it could embolden Jubbaland’s defiance. Last week, Somalia deployed troops to Jubbaland after its president, Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe, won a controversial third term Mogadishu didn’t want him to contest. It then charged him with treason, a crime punishable by death in Somalia.
Things escalated very quickly as Madobe responded by deploying his own forces to against the SNA. The clash on Wednesday at Ras Kamboni near the border with Kenya was said to be fierce, although Mogadishu was tight-lipped about the casualties.
Jubbaland issued a press statement on Thursday blaming the federal government.
“It is very unfortunate that Somali youths killed each other. Jubbaland promises to help those in need,” the statement said.
“There was no need for a war for a crisis that could be solved through discussions and compromises.”
Somalia had earlier refuted claims that it deployed troops to target Jubbaland forces. Instead, it said the SNA was replacing the departing forces serving under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), whose mandate ends on December 31, unless the UN Security Council extends it this week. Kenyan troops have been serving under Atmis in the southern Jubbaland sector.
“Instead of using SNA to liberate area controlled by Al-Shabaab, the soldiers have been brought to area that has been free from terrorist since 2011,” Jubbaland claimed on Thursday.
Even after the clashes, both sides were insisting on dialogue rather than violence, an important gesture that experts say will help Somalia stay the cause of political and security reforms.
The federal government argues that Madobe committed treason by seeking an “illegal” third term. It also says the election schedule was premature because Somalia wants to harmonise electoral calendars for federal member states from next year.
A major problem with the latest wrangling, experts say, is the potential distraction from concerted efforts to tackle the terrorist group al-Shabaab, an enemy President Mohamud identified from day one of his 2022 re-election. He cited the SNA, regional state forces, vigilante groups and support from neighbouring countries (known as frontier countries) as crucial to take down the extremist group.
The military, countering narratives of al-Shabaab and cutting off financial access were the main strategies for dealing with the militant group.
“Somalia’s security challenges are mainly political rather than military or ideological in nature,” said a former senior government official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he still has some working relationship with the federal government.
“That includes Madobe. I think he has been there for too long. But it also includes interference from neighbouring states.”
Difficult relations
But President Mohamud has not had an easy time with the federal states. Puntland has “suspended cooperation” with Mogadishu, and the tensions with Jubbaland are another headache.
Map showing Somalia states.
Photo credit: Nation Media Group
Some experts say Madobe should be given an exit door to rebuild relations.
“Ahmed Madobe, who has lost the legitimacy of many in Jubbaland and Somalia at large, must step down to prevent further destabilisation,” argues Idd Bedel Mohamed, a former Somali diplomat now chairing the US-Somalia Business Council, a trade lobby.
“The immediate and organised facilitation of his exit is essential.”
But that exit may not be easy, and Madobe may be taking advantage of recent tensions between Somalia and neighbouring Ethiopia to buy time. So far, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya, the three frontier countries in the war on al-Shabaab, have steered off the issue.
Ethiopia, especially, has another bone to chew with Somalia after signing a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a self-declared autonomous state that is still considered part of Somalia. Mogadishu protested the move, saying it amounted to a violation of its territorial integrity. The two are in talks, mediated by Turkey.
Beef in NCC
The source of the dispute in Jubbaland is in the National Consultative Council (NCC), a forum for the federal government of Somalia (FGS) and the federal member states, representing the two tiers of the Somali administration.
Puntland president Said Abdullahi Deni has been at odds with Villa Somalia (President Mohamud's office) over NCC policy, and Madobe has followed suit, protesting a lack of progress and meetings that have extended the tenure of the federal member state leaders. Madobe then held the controversial elections.
The NCC, chaired by President Mohamud, had reached a consensus in May 2023 that municipal council elections would be held in June 2024 and parliamentary elections in November 2024. Neither took place.
Madobe justified his departure from the NCC, arguing that the planned one-person, one-vote (universal suffrage) elections were not feasible. He also wanted to address a potential power vacuum as his term was coming to an end and there had been no elections for the 75-member local legislative assembly.
The move was promptly rejected by the FGS.
“I cannot accept any additional term extension in the pretext that the country was going to hold an unattainable universal suffrage,” Madobe said, ignoring repeated calls to rejoin the NCC.
Last week, President Mohamud told worshippers at a mosque in Villa Somalia after midday prayers of his plans to forge ahead with the one-person, one-vote, despite the difficulties.
“For nearly 25 years, Somalis have been using an indirect clan-based election formula that denied the public their rights to elect their leaders,” the President said, emphasising the need to return power to the people.
Political opponents have expressed dissatisfaction with the way the NCC is working under Mohamud's chairmanship, saying that he has ulterior motives.
Somalia parliament has amended the first four chapters of the provisional constitution, but critics say that changes cannot be made without inclusivity and consensus.
Puntland, which has been operating semi-autonomously since early 2023, has insisted that it will only return to the federal system if the “unlawful” changes made to the provisional constitution are reversed.
“Completing the provisional constitution is vital. But, since it is a national document that reflects social agreement, a small group cannot claim its ownership and play with it,” the Puntland leader Deni said.
Other eminent figures have also raised their concerns.
Former Somalia president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire and Abdurahman Abdishakur Warsame, an outspoken lawmaker, issued a statement on December 4 saying: “President Mohamud assumed the presidency (May 2022) empowered by inclusively agreed provisional constitution, regulation for election and political parties and electoral commission. He altered the constitution, fabricated regulations for election, parties and appointed an (electoral) commission based on self-interest.”
They warned that the country would make faulty laws on political parties, elections and electoral commission if based on the amended constitution.
Deni-Madobe unity
Some believe that the Jubbaland crisis could unite Deni and Madobe. Since Deni lost his 2022 presidential bid to Mohamud, the Puntland leader felt that Madobe did not rally enough support for him, creating tension between them, according to Abdurahman Tamam, a political observer in Somalia.
Deni’s suspicions were almost confirmed when Hamza Abdi Barre, who hails from Jubbaland, was appointed prime minister by President Mohamud.
However, Madobe believes that PM Barre allied himself with Mohamud against him.
Last month, Madobe said: “The young man (Barre) we sent there (Mogadishu) is now turning against us (Jubbaland).”
Madobe is a former warlord, hardened by years of militancy. He served in the Al-Ittihad Al-Islami, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU, the precursor of al-Shabaab), Ras Kamboni Brigade and Muskar Anole and later in Hizbul Islam.
If the opposition of Madobe, Deni and other politicians prevails, it is likely to disrupt President Mohamud’s plan.
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