Egypt and Ethiopia vie to join Somalia peacekeeping mission
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan poses with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (right) and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed following a press conference in Ankara, Turkey, on December 11, 2024.
Egypt and Ethiopia are vying to remain relevant in Somalia’s security transition as Mogadishu turns over a new leaf with a fresh African Union-backed mission.
But that comes with a dilemma as Ethiopia has fought to normalise ties with Somalia just as Egypt cemented relations with Mogadishu.
According to the plan endorsed by the African Union, and the UN Security Council, the African Union Transition Mission (ATMIS) will change to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom), which is expected to help rebuild Somalia’s institutions for on-ward management of the country’s affairs in the near future.
The number of countries contributing troops to the new mission has yet to be identified. As a stop-gap measure, the UN Security Council generally agreed with the African Union to allow current Atmis troop contributors to continue in Somalia, under the new hats of Atmis.
Somalia said earlier new peacekeepers will comprise armed personnel, police units and a civilian unit from Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti and Kenya but will exclude Ethiopia.
Instead, Somalia agreed for Egypt to contribute forces to the new mission estimated to be 11,900 peacekeepers, half of whom will be brought in under a bilateral deal.
On November 9, Somali government officially said Ethiopia will not be part of the mission.
The Minister for Defence Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, told State media at the time that Ethiopia is solidly excluded from taking part in Aussom that is going to be established to technically support the Somali forces.
“I can say that Ethiopia is the only government we know of so far that will not participate in the new AU mission because it has violated our sovereignty and national unity,” he told Voice of America.
Nur justified the decision, stating that the neighbouring country abused Somalia’s integrity and national unity by its Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signing an MoU with former Somaliland leader, Muse Bihi Abdi.
Somalia considers Somaliland its territory, not an independent authority capable of striking foreign agreements on their own.
But since then, the language on both sides has changed. Two weeks ago, Turkey mediated a deal in which both sides agreed to “forgo and leave behind differences and contentious issues and forge ahead in a cooperative manner to pursue shared prosperity.”
They agreed that Ethiopia will respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia.
That Somalia recognises the continuing need for Ethiopia to access the sea, that they will agree bilaterally on how Ethiopia can gain the sea access for commercial purposes.
Under the Ankara Declaration of December 11, Turkey managed to remove the security attachment to Ethiopia’s bid, instead focusing on the commercial need, something experts say could blunt tensions.
As a troop contributor to Atmis, Ethiopian officials now say they want to play a role in Aussom and have said they are working hard to improve relations with Mogadishu.
“Ethiopia values and upholds its commitment to revitalise and deepen the fraternal relations between the two countries in the spirit of Ankara Declaration,” Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday.
“The resolve and courage of the two countries will also continue to bolster the bilateral partnership and broader regional cooperation.”
This statement was meant to guarantee thawing relations. But it was also fighting an allegation raised in Somalia on Monday: That Ethiopian troops had attacked Somali forces. Addis refuted the claims, blaming it on unnamed third parties it said were spoiling the relations.
Yet these suspicions had been opportunity for Egypt to prove itself in Somalia. As a regional enemy of Ethiopia, Egypt sought to supplant Addis Ababa which has had bilateral troops in Somalia just as well as under Atmis.
On Monday, Egypt declared its readiness to contribute troops to Somalia peacekeeping mission.
While hosting a Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Cairo, its counterpart Badr Abdelatty said, “Egypt has decided to participate in the mission based on the Somali government’s request and welcoming of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council.”
This week, however, Somalia sent its first official delegation to Ethiopia since the MoU saga erupted on January 1. Ethiopia said the visit by the delegation led by the State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Omar, showed “commitment to the implementation of the Ankara Declaration, highlighting the significance of strengthening bilateral ties to esnsure lasting peace, stability and development in the region.”
Omar met his Ethiopian counterpart Mesganu Arga Moach. Later, Omar said Somalia was keen on working together. “collaboration, not division, drives progress,” he said on X
“Somalia is committed to partnerships with its neighbors that prioritize mutual respect and regional stability for the benefit of all.”
The apparent mixed signals in Somalia haven’t helped though. Barely ten days before the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) mandate expires, have been preparing for another improvised transition, seeking to plug gaps they fear could undermine previous successes.
They generally agree to the technical rollover, as it emerged that the deployment of Egyptian forces to replace the Ethiopians remains a contentious issue and a subject of ongoing discussions.
The EastAfrican learnt that despite ongoing discussions, partners, including donors, United Nations agencies, the AU and the five troop contributing countries, have not reached an agreement on the reconfiguration of the replacement force, the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom).
Yet some of those troop contributors said they still see playing a role in Somalia's peacekeeping forces. Korir Sing'oei, the Principal Secretary in Kenya's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Nairobi will retain troops in Somalia.
"I think the longer the short of that is that Kenya will continue to be a troop contributor country. Our host Somalia has requested that we continue," he told news conference in Nairobi on Friday while giving a briefing on the ministry year-long achievements.
"We are working with other countries that are also troop contributor countries, including new ones such as such as Egypt, amongst others."
"With regard to Somalia, Kenya has been of course a contributing country under the framework of ATMIS for the last couple of years. We went into Somalia as part of ATMIS to be able to deal with the challenge of terrorism, a challenge that was not only affecting Somalia but has a direct implication in the workplace and security as a country. We have succeeded by and large in degrading the capability of al-Shabaab and other terrorist elements, working closely with Somalia authorities.”
ATMIS was funded heavily through contributions from the European Union as well as the US and other agencies, including the African Union system itself, the African Peace Fund. But Aussom future has not secured funding guarantees yet.
The current discussions around funding of the post-ATMIS infrastructure revolves around leveraging on resolution to the 719 which was adopted recently by the United Nations Security Council, which would allow African peace keeping missions to tap into UN funding.
Some Council members have been reluctant, and want to study how Aussom works first. The AU Peace and Security Council authorised Aussom to take over from the current mission on January 1 2025.
However, this is unlikely as a final decision to deploy the force is pending the UN Security Council mandate. The UN Security Council has not yet convened on this issue.
But in December, it generally extended status quo of sanctions on al-Shabaab by two months to allow what it called discussions on the "shape" of a new regime on counterterrorism.
“The UNSC may consider granting a technical roll-over for ATMIS of three to six months to allow for reconfiguration to Aussom,” a source told The EastAfrican, adding that the issue of troop reconfiguration is still under discussion by the partners.
The uniformed personnel for the current force comprises troops from Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia and Djibouti. Uganda and Kenya also contribute to the police component, along with Zambia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.
The partners are also divided about funding for the mission, which is authorised to have up to 11,911 personnel, including 680 police officers and 85 civilian staff, according to independent news site Security Council Report. This is less manpower than the missions before it – Atmis had 19,626 personnel while the pioneer force, the African Union Mission in Somalia, had 22,000 personnel.
In October, the independent pan-African policy research think tank Amani Africa said in a briefing that donors are divided on financing options for Aussom, despite broad agreement among Security Council members on the need for the post-Atmis mission to deeply quickly to preserve the security gains in Somalia.
The US has stated that it is premature to authorise a new mission in Somalia under Resolution 2719, and thus proposed a bridging mechanism to address the financing issue for the next two years, and sent a team to discuss this position with the AU; the UK, on the other hand, supports authorizing Aussom under Resolution 2719.
For months, planning, design and unresolved funding issues have dogged the creation of a post-Atmis force, prompting the Security Council on August 15 to adopt Resolution 2748 which extended the mission’s authorization to the end of this year and requested the UN Secretary General to submit a report on Aussom’s configuration and financing by November 15.
It is also understood that the deployment of Egyptian peacekeepers has set the international community partners apart, with some, alongside the TCCs, uncomfortable that the exit of Ethiopian troops, who have experience in fighting al Shabaab, creates a security vacuum.
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