EA countries divided over military intervention in South Sudan as talks flounder
What you need to know:
President Salva Kiir, in an interview with the BBC last week, expressed his frustration with neighbouring countries for their failure to sanction military intervention to help him quell the rebellion led by his former deputy, Dr Riek Machar.
Kenya and Ethiopia have resisted Kiir’s appeal for military intervention, opting to pursue diplomatic options.
So far, it is only Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni who favours the military option. Rwanda last week announced that it would be sending more policemen to South Sudan and Darfur to boost the already existing mission there.
Countries in the East African region are sharply divided over military intervention in South Sudan, as the talks in Addis Ababa flounder over political detainees and the presence of Ugandan troops.
President Salva Kiir, in an interview with the BBC last week, expressed his frustration with neighbouring countries for their failure to sanction military intervention to help him quell the rebellion led by his former deputy, Dr Riek Machar.
President Kiir said that regional leaders ought to have come in with military support immediately the fighting started on December 15 to ensure that “the rebels are crushed once and for all.”
But Kenya and Ethiopia have resisted Kiir’s appeal for military intervention, opting to pursue diplomatic options.
President Kiir had hoped for regional military intervention after realising that neither side was strong enough to overcome the other, while at the same time neither is willing to back down.
So far, it is only Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni who favours the military option; he responded immediately by sending troops to Juba to protect vital installations, but the rebel side viewed this as foreign interference in the internal affairs of South Sudan.
Rwanda last week announced that it would be sending more policemen to South Sudan and Darfur to boost the already existing mission there.
The talks in Addis Ababa appeared to hit a dead end on Friday as Dr Machar’s team continued to demand the withdrawal of Ugandan troops and the release of political detainees ahead of proper negotiations, while the government side insisted it would not “negotiate with preconditions.”
President Kiir’s approach to the current crisis seems to favour the military option over the political process going on in Addis Ababa, saying that his government was ready to talk to the rebels but if they were not responsive, he was ready to fight.
“We cannot just sit by and say that South Sudan has failed,” he said in the BBC interview.
But on a visit to Juba on January 8, the head of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad) mediation team, Ethiopia’s Seyoum Mesfin, in the company of special envoys Lazaro Sumbeiywo of Kenya, who is a South Sudan peace-making veteran, and Igad executive secretary Mahboub Maalim, reported that President Kiir had reaffirmed his full support for the search for a political solution.
The Igad group — optimistic that a ceasefire would be signed soon — further reported that the detainees expressed their support for cessation of hostilities and that their status as detainees should not be an impediment to reaching peaceful solution.
Aly Verjee, a senior researcher with the Rift Valley Institute, said that President Kiir was reluctant to participate in the Addis talks from the outset, and has clearly limited the mandate of his negotiators in Addis Ababa, while the situation is further complicated by the belief by both sides that they are right.
“The government of South Sudan has the right to invite troops from regional and African member states to enter the country, but that doesn’t mean it would be a good idea.
It would be a definite escalation of the conflict. The rebels have decades of experience, and will not have qualms about attacking forces that they see as partisan. Regional militaries risk being drawn into a war they cannot decisively win,” said Mr Verjee.
Sources in the Foreign Affairs Ministry revealed that Kenya has taken a position against military intervention but has intensified behind the scenes diplomatic pressure for the release of political detainees.
The EastAfrican has learnt that Kenya had in late December successfully lobbied Juba to release the detained political prisoners if any meaningful negotiations were to take place. Juba reluctantly agreed to have the detainees transported to Nairobi.
But as the Kenya delegation was waiting in Juba for the release of the detainees, forces loyal to Dr Machar retook the city of Bor on New Year’s Eve.
President Uhuru Kenyatta appears to be going by Kenya’s longstanding foreign policy, which has been consistently guided by the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of other states and preservation of national security.
This was only broken in October 2011 when Kenya Defence Forces entered Somalia in pursuit of Al Shabaab militants.
Sources privy to President Museveni’s military involvement in South Sudan say it was mainly informed by his historical differences with Dr Machar, who at one time during the 21-year civil war hosted Joseph Kony of the Lord’s Resistance Army.
South Sudan ambassador to Kenya Nguadong Majok denied that the government is pursuing a military option, maintaining that the position of the government is to resolve the issue peacefully and that is why Juba has sent the delegation to Addis Ababa.
“As an elected and legitimate government of South Sudan, it has the responsibility of maintaining territorial integrity of the country, even though peace is the first priority,” said Mr Majok.
President Kenyatta, who is also the current chairman of the East African Community, maintained that Kenya will continue working with regional countries and the international community to support “constructive dialogue” for a lasting and sustainable solution to the current crisis in South Sudan.
However, President Kenyatta, while meeting South Sudan Foreign Minister Barnaba Benjamin Maryal, did not mention the possibility of Kenya’s military involvement in South Sudan.
But also raising concern in both Nairobi and Addis Ababa is the growing involvement of Sudanese President Omar al Bashir. Earlier in the week, media reports that Sudan and South Sudan had agreed to form a joint military force to protect oil sources had raised fears that this would scupper the talks in Addis Ababa and increase internal opposition to Kiir.
Later, Khartoum, through Minister of Information Ahmed Bilal, denied the media report, saying that the two presidents only agreed to send 900 Sudanese oil experts to South Sudan to help with the recovery of oil production lost as a result of the ongoing conflict.
Sources privy to al Bashir’s position on South Sudan revealed that Khartoum would have wished to take advantage of the situation to deploy its forces close to the border with South Sudan so as to maroon Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan rebels who are are fighting the government.
Before the outbreak of conflict in South Sudan on December 15, Khartoum and Juba had agreed to deploy a joint force along their shared border to prevent rebels in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan from crossing into either country.