Leaders of 11 African countries that signed onto the United Nations-funded Peace, Security and Co-operation Framework for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Region in Addis Ababa on February 24, will be attending a high level meeting on Monday, September 23, in New York, a day before the 68th UN General Assembly goes into session.

The countries are Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Central African Republic and South Sudan.

The objectives of the meeting under the auspices of the UN include reviewing the implementation of the regional commitments under the Framework, adopting its benchmarks and indicators of progress that have remained absent until now, and agreeing on a monitoring and reporting mechanism.

The Framework assigns particular commitments to the DR Congo government, the region, and the international community. It was hastily designed on the back of faltering talks in Uganda’s capital Kampala between the Congolese government and M23 rebels.

Regional leaders sanctioned the Kampala dialogue in December 2012 to defuse renewed conflict in eastern Congo, which saw North Kivu’s provincial capital, Goma, overrun and held by rebels for 11 days in November of the same year.

The Kampala dialogue resumed on September 10 this year, following the 7th Extraordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region early this month, which was precipitated by yet another round of deadly clashes that left an unknown number of people dead and others displaced.

The leaders set a 14-day deadline for the dialogue to have ended.

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According to Dr Crispus Kiyonga, Uganda’s Defence Minister and the Kampala talks’ chief facilitator, the dialogue is on course and is nearing conclusion after a consolidation of agreements isolated the core issues to be finally negotiated upon.

There is a sense in which the conclusion of the talks is important to the Framework’s progress as the UN is keen not to be seen as torpedoing regional initiatives.

“There have been discussions on amnesty; release of prisoners; transformation of M23; integration and demobilisation; return of refugees; and resettling IDPs in their homes; return of properties that have irregularly exchanged hands and how they should be handled; national reconciliation and more or less agreement that certain issues need to be formally investigated by a commission of inquiry,” Dr Kiyonga told reporters on September 17.

“We shall soon conclude the dialogue. So I urge the government delegation and that of the M23, let’s take our commitment to a higher level and work even harder so that we can conclude as soon as possible,” he added.

Analysts, however, have cast doubt on the two sides’ commitment, saying there is double speak on the part of both.

“The two sides remain far apart on core principles such as disarmament and demobilisation of M23 troops, amnesty for the senior leadership of M23, and discussion on dealing with strategies to disband the FDLR and return of the Congolese Tutsi refugee population from Rwanda — recent demands made by M23 as precondition to disarmament,” Aaron Hall, a senior field researcher at Enough Project, wrote on the non-profit body’s website on September 17.

“The M23 appears, at least rhetorically, more willing to strike a deal now that its military posture around Goma has been weakened.

Conversely, the Congolese government team seems bolstered with confidence from recent military gains on the ground and positive international backing. In the short term, it is difficult to determine whether or not a deal will be struck within the 14-day deadline given in advance of the UN General Assembly,” he added.

Commitment

The UN has demonstrated heightened commitment to resolving instability in eastern Congo, which has repeatedly returned to haunt the world body since its largest peacekeeping mission in the world is stationed there.

It appointed a new special envoy, Mary Robinson, and even sent its first-ever offensive force — the 3,069 strong Force Intervention Brigade — which went into combat in July.

Moreover, the brigade’s singular focus on M23 out of nearly 50 such groups, ranging from small rag-tag militias to well-organised armies such as the FDLR, all of which it is mandated to tackle, has raised questions about its motivation and more critically, how its success can be measured.

“Given the multiplicity, not only of groups but also of types of actors and styles of warfare, the Force Intervention Brigade will have immense problems to tackle all of these. The brigade’s own constraints in terms of numbers and equipment makes is impossible to fight, let’s say, more than two or three battles at the same time,” Christoph Vogel, who researches on the DR Congo, told The EastAfrican.

The matter of the FDLR has gained new urgency since Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete advised his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in May to open talks with the group, which Kigali accuses of having committed the 1994 genocide.

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President Kikwete’s advice saw relations between the two countries deteriorate to an all-time low. They have thawed slightly following a face-to-face meeting in Kampala recently.

While most analysts say FDLR has become weakened over the years to the extent that it poses no serious security threats to Rwanda, they agree that given the fact that it remains one of the most skilled guerrilla fighting force in eastern Congo, it should not be ignored.