The civil war in South Sudan entered its second year on December 15, with little hope of a lasting political solution. Hope hinges on President Salva Kiir and Dr Riek Machar narrowing their differences over the structure of the power-sharing arrangement suggested by Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad) by the end of the year.

The regional body has also managed to get the warring parties to accept the Declaration of Principles that will form the basis of power-sharing, even though both sides are still haggling over the structure of the proposed Transitional Government of National Unity.

The fighting has left nearly 20,000 dead, a looming famine, about 1.8 million internally displaced and over 500,000 taking refuge in neighbouring countries.

For a year, the fighting has been concentrated in three out of the 10 states — Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile, but in November, a new front was opened in by the Equatoria Defence Forces (EDF) led by liberation veteran Gen Martin Kenyi. The new force, which is based in Central Equatoria, is allied to Dr Machar and is seeking to unite all the three Equatorian states to express their unhappiness over the war.

Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya have come out strongly in the past one year with their own diplomatic initiatives to pacify South Sudan — with little success.

READ: Igad puts aside sanctions, cites talks progress

Uganda, for instance, is emerging as the main player in the process having sent troops soon after the outbreak of the fighting in December 2013 to keep President Kiir in power. Still, 2014 started on a positive note with the Igad partner states mediation in Addis Ababa on January 2.

By January 23, the two principals — President Kiir and Dr Machar — had signed the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. The agreement contained various mechanisms such as a Joint Technical Committee and a Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (MVM).

By the end of January, the South Sudanese government released seven of the 11 high-ranking political figures who were detained shortly after unrest erupted but left four others who the government said were to face trial.

The seven — Deng Alor Kuol, Gier Chuang, Kosti Manibe, Chol Tong Mayay, Cirino Hiteng, Madut Biar Yel and John Luk Jok — were handed over to the custody of the authorities in Kenya. This was to help move the peace talks forward after the international community doubted President Kiir’s assertion that the rebels had planned a coup.

In March, East African states agreed to send a “protection and deterrence” force to South Sudan by mid-April to help enforce a ceasefire deal.  Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda and Djibouti offered to send troops, but so far, only Ethiopia has put 90 boots on the ground out of the 2,500 required.

The same month, the Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan that had been established by the African Union Peace and Security Council in January — two weeks after the fighting broke out — started working.

The commission, led by former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, has the mandate to investigate human-rights abuses and make recommendations on accountability, healing and reconciliation. It was the first time AU had instituted a commission of inquiry into crimes against humanity and war crimes on the continent.

Again in response to regional and international pressure and to help move the peace process forward, in April, Juba released four political figures accused of plotting a coup in December the previous year.

These were Pagan Amum, the former secretary general of the governing Sudan People’s Liberation Movement; Oyai Deng Ajak, the former minister of national security; Majak D’Agoot, the former deputy minister of defence; and Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth, the former ambassador to the US.

The government argued that the case had not been dismissed but “frozen.”

In May, the UN issued a report describing the atrocities committed by both sides in the civil war in South Sudan; an account likely to boost calls for sanctions, it documents crimes against humanity, including arbitrary killings and attacks on churches, hospital and international aid facilities.

In the same month, the UN warned of a looming food crisis in South Sudan because the civil war disrupted the planting season, raising the possibility of famine.

Washington immediately imposed economic sanctions. President Barrack Obama, through an executive order imposed an asset and travel freeze against Marial  Chanuong, the commander of the Presidential Guard, who was accused of leading the  attacks against civilians in and around Juba, and  Peter Gadet,  a rebel commander in Bentiu, Unity State.

The move jolted the warring parties, forcing President Kiir and Dr Machar to sign another agreement in Addis Ababa, on May 9, recognising that “there is no military solution to the crisis in South Sudan and that sustainable peace can be achieved only through inclusive political dialogue.”

Towards the end of May, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution to shift its peacekeeping operations in South Sudan away from nation-building to safeguarding civilians threatened by ethnic violence and political instability.

The United Nations Mission in South Sudan ( Unmiss), was authorised to use “all necessary means” to protect civilians, to police rights abuses, to ensure aid delivery and to enforce ceasefires among rival factions.

In mid-September, China announced it would send 700 troops to join a UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan,  the first time that China had contributed an entire battalion to the mission. The purpose was mainly to protect China’s oil interest in South Sudan, where about five per cent of its oil imports come from.

The China National Petroleum Corporation has a 40 per cent stake in a joint venture that is developing South Sudan’s oil fields.
Towards the end of October, Tanzania which had so far stayed out of the South Sudan crisis came into the picture, with President Jakaya Kikwete convening a meeting of President Kiir and Dr Machar in Arusha to discuss internal problems within SPLM.

The two accepted moral responsibility for the political crisis in South Sudan and signed a framework agreement to address the root causes of the conflict.

“The parties recognise that the Arusha process is essentially an intra-SPLM dialogue and is separate and distinct from the Igad mediated peace talks among South Sudan stakeholders. Yet the parties are fully aware that the two processes, although separate, are mutually interdependent and reinforcing,” read the communiqué.

In early November, the US delegation to the UN informed members of the Security Council that it would circulate a draft resolution establishing a sanctions regime for conflict-torn South Sudan, targeting individuals undermining South Sudan’s political stability and abusing human rights.

Soon after, President Kiir and rebel leader Dr Machar agreed on a  power sharing formula in a deal to establish a national transitional government that would help steer the world’s newest nation to elections.

The two agreed on the creation of the position of the prime minister, but the division of power remains contentious to date.
At the same Igad summit ion November 7, the regional countries and mediators gave the warring factions a deadline of 15 days till November 28 to agree on power sharing or face sanctions from countries in the region.

However, the deadline passed without an agreement; Igad member countries are still locked in a dilemma over how to impose sanctions on those opposed to power sharing agreements on both sides without endangering their own economic and political links with South Sudan.