Forum for Democratic Change flagbearer Kizza Besigye is closing the gap with the leading contender NRM’s President Yoweri Museveni, especially in the areas where he has been campaigning in recent weeks.

Eastern Uganda is one of the regions where Dr Besigye’s campaign has gained steam and attracted big crowds to its rallies — first in the Elgon area, and this past week in the sub regions of Busoga and Bukedi.

In the 2011 elections, FDC’s support in the entire region — which includes the Teso sub region — had actually declined.  
Soroti municipality legislator Mike Mukula, who is also the National Resistance Movement vice-chairman for eastern Uganda, said it will be difficult for the ruling party to stop the Besigye juggernaut.

He attributes Dr Besigye and FDC’s gains to the disaffection and contradictions that divided in the party after the chaotic NRM primaries in October 2015, as well as to prominent FDC MPs from Eastern Uganda.

These are Nandala Mafabi (Budadiri county West), Wafula Oguttu (Bukooli ounty Central), Geoffrey Ekanya (Tororo county), Abdu Katuntu (Bugweri county), Elijah Okupa (Kasilo county), Alice Alaso (woman  MP for Serere district) and  Kevinah Taaka (Busia municipality).

“Dr Besigye seems to be undergoing a resurrection in Mbale, Busia, Iganga, Tororo and Bugiri because these districts have had representation issues.

READ: Emulate Kenya, Tanzania on term limits, urges Besigye in campaign

ALSO READ: Uganda urged to respect media freedom on eve of polls

NRM is still strong in the eastern region, but the presence of very strong opposition MPs in some of these districts means we still have a lot of work to do,” Mr Mukula told The EastAfrican.

Eastern Uganda has 32 districts in the sub-regions of Elgon, Bukedi, Busoga and Teso. In 2011, out of the 2,027,853 valid votes cast in the region, Museveni won 68.17 per cent and Besigye 28.78 per cent.

Today, the tide is turning: First, the ruling party has had issues of service delivery in the region.

Second, the latest opinion poll by Research World International released on January 20 shows President Museveni at 51 per cent — a 4 per cent drop from the August 2015 opinion poll. Over the same period, Dr Besigye has risen to 32 per cent.

Third, voters are contributing money towards Dr Besigye’s campaign; along with the money are goats, chicken, turkey, rabbits and matooke.

Some popular local artistes serenaded President Museveni at the start of his campaign with the song Tubonga Naawe (We Stand With you), prompting the incumbent to donate Ush400 million ($116,845) to the group.

However, the criticism that followed led to the song’s failure to catch on. In contrast, songs in praise of Dr Besigye have become signature tunes at his rallies and are among the most requested on radio.

Buoyed by large crowds on the campaign trail, the FDC leaders are appealing for an end to Museveni’s 30-year rule, during which three leaders in Tanzania and two in Kenya have stepped down and handed over to a successor.

“This country is in a mess… broken down systems, corruption stinking to the high heavens, and we have a man who after 30 years still wants to stay on. To do that which he hasn’t done in 30 years?” FDC president Maj-Gen Mugisha Muntu asked the voters at rallies in Iganga and Tororo.

“I have heard people say if Museveni leaves there will be problems. What problems? It is his continuation that will bring problems. God gave us the same intelligence as those people in countries that change leaders. Let’s use that intelligence,” he added.

As the candidates head into the homestretch for the February 18 election, the seemingly increasing support for Dr Besigye is a cause of concern for NRM officials.

“People here want change. They used to vote for President Museveni, but now they want change because we are tired of empty promises,” said 60-year-old Clement Onyami, a voter and resident of Tororo County.

Mr Onyami has two sons with university degrees — one in finance and accounting and the other in journalism. Both are jobless, despite promises five years ago by President Museveni that the government would create jobs by setting up processes to employ jobless university graduates.    

Mr Onyami, who is also the chairman of the Kamuli Health Centre II management committee, said the centre is understaffed despite promises made five years ago by the ruling party to improve the quality of health services and staffing.

“Our health infrastructure is appalling; there is only one nurse and no support staff. For four years, I have been writing to remind district officials, requesting for staff, but there is no response. What sort of government is this?” he asked, displaying several letters, the last of which was written on October 29 last year to Tororo resident district commissioner and chief administrative officer.

Tororo district NRM campaigns coordinator Apollo Yeri Ofwono said concerns over healthcare are genuine.

“It is true that the services are poor, that’s why we keep changing these local leaders,” he said. “Leaders who are supposed to implement programmes don’t do anything, and the money is returned to the central government.”

Dr Besigye has used the appalling state of Uganda’s healthcare system into one of his top election issues. He has visited several ailing public health facilities, prompting security to block him from entering any more.

Mr Mukula said that although the government has a social contract with Ugandans, it has been financially constrained and hence failed to deliver on some promises such as improved health.

For instance, he said, 78 per cent of Ugandans are below the age of 30 — many are unemployed and dependent on a government with constrained resources. In spite of this failure, he projects that NRM will sweep the eastern Uganda vote.

“Our people are crying about poverty and having no jobs. This government says the money is not enough. Solving our problems is not a problem of money, but how we use it. There is a lot we can do with the money we have,” Dr Besigye told his supporters in Tororo on January 19.

Besides health, eastern Uganda has other grievances, top of which is about unemployment brought by loss of its past stature as the country’s industrial heawrtland. In addition, the land on which some factories stood is now vulnerable to land grabbers.

Chinese firms and local sharks have been named in various land rackets.

“As soon as we come to government in June, we are instituting a moratorium on all contested land; no one will take away your land,” Dr Besigye promised.

FDC also promises to raise primary and secondary school teachers’ pay. “This money is already there; we will shift it from misuse to use,” Dr Besigye said.