More than four million Kenyans will face an acute shortage of their staple food, maize, as early as April this year.

Egerton University’s research arm — Tegemeo Institute — says the country’s food security situation is precarious. It adds that there is a potential food crisis occasioned by erratic rains during the long rains season.

Kenya will depend heavily on neighbouring countries for maize imports.

Tegemeo maize researcher Francis Karin says the maize reserve will last up to the first quarter of 2010 only.

“From April, Kenya will have to import maize to save its people from starvation. The situation will improve only after major harvests are realised towards the end of the year in September and October,” Mr Karin said.

The thinktank says the situation has been worsened by the failed El Nino rains, which many farmers had pegged their hopes on.

Continuing export bans in neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda have worsened the problem. They are likely to reduce cross-border maize inflows by approximately 46 per cent.

The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) says other issues affecting Kenya’s maize outputs include inefficient market competition, lack of enough agricultural extension systems and poor infrastructure.

Production from the long rains usually accounts for 85 per cent of the national output, which is currently estimated at 30 million bags. As a result of the intermittent rains this year, this production level is set to fall below last year’s.

Estimates by Tegemeo place the long rains production at 18 million bags. This represents 65 per cent of the Ministry of Agriculture’s target of 28 million bags.

Crop performance analysis by the ministry shows that the country’s major production zones will record massive declines in maize production.

South Rift, Eastern and Central and North Rift Provinces have an annual crop performance rate of 50 per cent. Nyanza’s lowlands recorded a 60 per cent production decline while the highlands had a 35 per cent decline. Western and Central registered 30 per cent and 70 per cent decline, respectively.

On average, out of the country’s 1.3 million hectares of land under maize, only 18.2 million bags were achieved, representing an average 14.3 bags per hectare. This is 65 per cent of Kenya’s target of 28 million bags.

The ministry estimates the short rains production at 6.5 million bags, with 2.6 million bags coming from Eastern province. Another 1.6 million bags is expected from Nyanza province.

This is quite optimistic. Ukambani and upper Eastern have already lost their maize crop due to the failed El Nino rains. Nyanza has not fared any better.