Like previous pacts, the test for the latest agreement signed by South Sudan’s belligerents will be the extent to which the parties implement it, analysts say.

Although many praised the Arusha Accord, saying it goes a long way towards addressing the root cause of the ongoing conflict and will ease the work of the mediators at the Addis Ababa peace talks, they also pointed out that the warring parties needed to follow up on the resolutions by ending the violence and negotiating in good faith to reach a political agreement.

The agreement, which came on Thursday afternoon after talks in the northern Tanzanian town of Arusha, mainly focuses on the restructuring and running of the ruling Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) party. It also calls for unhindered humanitarian access and an end to hostilities in the young nation.

READ: South Sudan warring factions sign new peace deal in Tanzania

The deal is the fourth by the protagonists since war broke out in the capital Juba 14 months ago following a political falling-out among the top leaders. The war however quickly turned ethnic, pitting mainly the Dinka, to whom President Salva Kiir belongs, against the Nuer, his deputy-turned-foe Dr Riek Machar’s tribe.

Under the deal, the parties agreed to “reunify and reconcile” the three factions within the party.

Although the two principals did not attend the dialogue leading to the agreement, brokers of the deal and some leaders in the region are positive it will hold because the duo met before the signing ceremony following the intervention of South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma and regional leaders.

Speaking after signing the deal, President Kiir promised: “This bleeding will stop. Nobody will again open fire on another person.”

But Dr Machar was more guarded, saying: “I hope the other side will be serious.”

The deal however faces several challenges that analysts say will, if not tackled, make it fail just like the previous ones, which collapsed in a matter of hours.

The US national security adviser, Susan Rice, urged President Kiir and Dr Machar to follow up the ceasefire with “ending the violence and negotiating in good faith to reach a political agreement.”

A spokesman for United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon demanded that both sides “immediately translate these commitments into action on the ground.”

Regional security expert David Pulkol described the deal as “comprehensive,” saying “it gets to the root cause of the conflict in terms of the issues that first cropped up within the party, the internal democracy and running of the party.”

He said the principles contained in the reunification agreement go far enough in addressing the root causes of the war and will thus ease the work of the mediators.

“It is an indication that, for once, they have reached the bottom of the issues,” said Mr Pulkol. “Forming the government of national unity is now possible.

“This now paves the way for speeding up the Addis Ababa peace process and reduces the speaking points for Addis Ababa delegates.”

He, however, warned: “We should remain cautiously optimistic. Many agreements signed in the past have been violated immediately Kiir reached Juba.”

The test for the deal, conflict professor Phillip Kasaijja says, will however come when the Obasanjo Commission’s report on war crimes is released this month. The report, sources said, places responsibility for the war and war crimes on the top leaders in both the government and the opposition.

Not eligible to hold public office

“Any individual SPLM member convicted by a competent court or tribunal of crimes against humanity, war crimes, crimes against peace or gross human-rights violations and abuses during the crisis that erupted in the country since December 15, 2013 shall not be eligible to hold public office in the party and the government,” the deal signed in Arusha says.

This means that those implicated will cease to be not only leaders but also members of the SPLM.

“What will then happen to them? Will Kiir or Machar agree to step down?” posed Prof Kasaijja.

Among those who could be implicated are Kiir’s ministers for defence and military chiefs on both the government and rebel sides.

“Will Kiir be able to carry his part of the bargain or they arrest him or find a way of quashing this deal?” asked Mr Pulkol. If there is a danger of not implementing this agreement, then there is a need for Tanzania, as guarantor, to be on the ground in South Sudan, supported by the Ethiopian forces already there, he added.

“With intervention troops on the ground, it will create an enabling environment for implementation and the safe return home of Machar, as it was in Burundi when South African forces were deployed for Buyoya to hand over and remain safe,” Mr Pulkol said. “That is what the Ethiopian generals have to do.”

There is a need, the experts say, to make default expensive. Prof Kasaijja and Simon Mulongo point out that the deal will not advance the Addis talks unless it is implemented, and that is where the test for this truce will come.

“The agreement can only add value to the history of the South Sudan dialogue but will not resolve the impasse,” said Mr Mulongo. “You do not expect Machar to march into Juba with his troops and have Kiir allow him to do so. For future reference, it is a good framework.”

He added: “It is not just political within the party but about governance of South Sudan; it goes deeper into the question of leadership of the country. The party is just a by-the-way; the core of the issue is, Machar wants to be president and so does Kiir.

“Who wants to lead the party and not the country?”

Nonetheless, the experts observed, the truce ignored several other players in the conflict.

“What about the others?” Prof Kasaijja asked. “How about the others who are not part of the process?

“How about internal disagreement? The Yao Yao group? How about those militias in Equatorial?

“Yes, this may be a step forward in that it tries to restructure the party but it has to be broadened to include other parties in the process, then you can talk about it.

“It will bring respite but does not resolve the problem.”