When Uhuru Kenyatta begins work this week as Kenya’s fourth president, he will be counting on old and new friendships with the other East African heads of state to help him navigate regional politics and shield him from any possible backlash from the international community over the charges he faces at the International Criminal Court.

While he may not really know who his true international friends are — going by their earlier reservations over his candidature — he can at least count on his regional colleagues.

Over the past week since the Supreme Court threw out a petition challenging Mr Kenyatta’s election, Western diplomats have struck a friendlier note, sending him congratulatory messages and calling on him and deputy president-elect William Ruto, who also faces ICC charges.

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Out of the four regional leaders, Mr Kenyatta already enjoys friendly relations with Presidents Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania and Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi, all of whom are expected to attend his inauguration on Tuesday, April 9.

Mr Kenyatta is also expected to forge a friendship with Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, whose attendance at the inauguration ceremony has also been confirmed.

“The positions Mr Kenyatta held in the Kenyan government did not bring them into much contact, but that is not to say there isn’t potential for affinity. They’re close in age and are both of modern thinking, so we see an affinity developing,” said an official of the Rwandan government.

It is also not lost on observers that Rwanda is not a signatory to the ICC and President Kagame has publicly denounced The Hague-based court.

The reported choice of President Museveni to make a speech on behalf of invited dignitaries at the inauguration ceremony is being read by analysts as having to do with more than the fact that he is the chairman of the East African Community.

The Ugandan leader is said to have been one of Mr Kenyatta’s strongest supporters in the run-up to the elections, when Western leaders were expressing reservations over his candidature.

President Museveni’s ties with Mr Kenyatta are said to go back a long way.

In October 2008, President Museveni toured Kenya and visited a milk plant owned by the Kenyatta family — Brookside Dairy Ltd, outside Nairobi. He extended an invitation to the Kenyatta sons to start a similar enterprise in Uganda and assured them of his support should they take up the idea. The Ugandan president also toured Gicheha farm, another Kenyatta family enterprise.

A Ugandan newspaper, the Observer, on March 17 quoted President Museveni’s presidential press secretary Tamale Mirundi as saying that although Uhuru’s main challenger Raila Odinga’s visits to Kampala had been more visible and better publicised in the Ugandan media, Kenyatta had also been there. Mirundi was quoted as saying, “Uhuru has investments [in Uganda]”.

The ICC case

It was also reported that prior to the Kenyan election, Museveni met Kenyan leaders at his Kisozi country home — key among them being Mr Ruto.

Museveni’s political adviser told The EastAfrican he was approached by the United Kingdom to distance himself from Mr Kenyatta because of the latter’s ICC case, but the president rejected the idea, saying Britain only wanted to ostracise Uhuru because of his historical connections to Mau Mau. But he also stated that in any case, both Raila and Uhuru were East Africans and Museveni would not choose either.

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This position was also stated by Uganda’s Foreign Minister Sam Kuteesa at a meeting in Bujumbura, according to a source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

However, a close associate of Ruto in Kampala says their camp was “aware” that Museveni all along supported Raila and even funded his political campaign. Which would suggest that Uhuru’s invitation to Museveni is a sort of olive branch to test Museveni. In which case, Museveni’s presence at Uhuru’s inauguration is due to his being the oldest EA leader, but not necessarily a sign of his support for the new presidency in Nairobi, a scenario that points to mutual discomfort between Uhuru and Museveni, sources said.

With Tanzania’s President Kikwete, the friendship stretches back to Mr Kenyatta’s tenure as Kanu chairman. Sources in the country’s leadership hierarchy told The EastAfrican that Mr Kenyatta is viewed as the last “leader of former ruling party Kanu, which was in the past invited to CCM meetings as ‘Chama Rafiki’ (friendly party) and Mr Kenyatta represented the party at these meetings.”

In the heat of the presidential election campaigns late last year, Mr Kenyatta called on President Kikwete “after realising that some of the Chama cha Mapinduzi top brass were openly supporting Mr Odinga.”

And the deputy president-elect and his family were at the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania for the just-ended Easter holiday, where he reportedly met President Kikwete.

According to Prof Peter Kagwanja, the chief executive officer at Africa Policy Institute, the investment in shuttle diplomacy by Mr Kenyatta paid off with President Kikwete telling the world to respect the decision of Kenyans. He added that the Jubilee strategists had realised that for them to have a global influence and acceptance, they must start at home with the East African Community.

READ: Uhuru toured region seeking allies over ICC

“In 2008, the main political lifeline for President Mwai Kibaki was the voice of the vocal African leaders and regional bodies such as Igad that forced the African Union to initiate a political settlement. Mr Kenyatta knew that for him to be heard globally, he must have regional backing,” said Prof Kagwanja.

President Kikwete played a role in crafting the road map to the coalition agreement that restored peace in Kenya in the aftermath of the 2008 post-election violence.”

As part of his diplomacy shuttle in the region, Mr Kenyatta last November led eight MPs to Burundi where they met President Nkurunziza and discussed what was described in a media statement as “a wide range of issues of mutual interest touching on regional co-operation and development of the EAC.”

Early last month, Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Coalition signed a partnership agreement with the Burundi ruling party, the National Council for Defence of Democracy-Forces for Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD). Johnson Sakaja, the chairman of the National Alliance (TNA) — which is part of Jubilee — alluded to this when he said that they had picked CNDD-FDD because “President Nkurunzinza has been supportive of our cause and our co-operation is based on mutual interests.”

Analysts see Mr Kenyatta’s efforts to reach out to regional leaders as a way of solidifying local support ahead of the ICC trials where both he and Mr Ruto face charges of crimes against humanity.Mr Kenyatta’s trial is set for July while Mr Ruto’s begins on May 28.

Mr Kenyatta is said to be banking on the fact that most African leaders are uncomfortable with the ICC over allegations that The Hague-based court is targeting Africa while ignoring human rights abuses in other continents.

Of concern to regional leaders has been the scenario of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto being found guilty by the ICC, and how the international community would deal with this. For EAC leaders, the collective damage to the EAC of a Kenya under Western sanctions would be felt deeply, given that the country is the region’s largest economy.

READ: Will Kenya’s Western allies abandon strategic interest?

The election of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto presents a diplomatic dilemma for Western countries. European countries and the United States of America had, in the run-up to the elections, said they would be limiting contacts with Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, if elected. But in the recent past, they have seemingly changed tack.

The unspoken fear in diplomatic circles was that the pair would refuse to co-operate with ICC if elected. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have consistently stated that they intend to co-operate with the ICC to the end.

The Western countries face the dilemma of balancing between their policy on “essential contact” and their strategic interests in Kenya, seen as the most influential ally in the East African region.

On Friday, President Barack Obama sent a congratulatory message to Mr Kenyatta, which was delivered to the president-elect by US ambassador Robert Godec.

President Obama said the electoral process and the peaceful adjudication of disputes that ensued are testaments to the progress Kenya has made in strengthening its democratic institutions.