Arusha, the seat of the East African Community, will be in the spotlight this week as political tensions deepen ahead of a by-election that has divided politicians and tested Tanzania’s electoral discipline. 

With just over one week to go before the Arumeru East by-election is held on April 1, the opposition Chadema party and the ruling CCM have been trading accusations over the management of the election, denting the credibility of the country’s electoral process.

The accusations of electoral misconduct ahead of the by-election — a trend political analysts see spreading across Tanzania in coming years — have rekindled calls for constitutional reforms. Opposition leaders supporting a change in the constitution want to curtail presidential powers and introduce electoral reforms that among other things would allow presidential results to be challenged in court.

“The by-election in Arusha renders a noxious situation more so, and the bitter rivalries among the heavyweight men of straw in the ruling party is perhaps more acute than that between it and the opposition. The poison secreted by these mindless squabbles — in Arusha and elsewhere — will find its way into the body politic,” writes political commentator Jenerali Ulimwengu in his column.

“The Tanzanian political scene has seen serious deterioration of late, with reason taking the backseat and an assorted legion of shadowy interests taking command of the political processes,” he adds. While the 2010 polls were peaceful, they were far from perfect, with a low turnout and an opaque vote counting process.

In the Arusha by-election, opposition leaders are accusing the police of acting as agents of their CCM rivals, and the latter are reiterating their role as an impartial organ committed solely to law enforcement. Chadema  through secretary-general Willibrod Slaa, has levelled similar accusations against the National Electoral Commission.

Within his own CCM party, President Jakaya Kikwete –– who is set to pick a team to spearhead the constitutional reforms — faces opposition as some party heavyweights are said to be opposed to the political reforms. The divisions are likely to grow as the 2015 elections approach.

The CCM and its next presidential candidate — Mr Kikwete cannot stand again — are expected to win the 2015 elections, but with the opposition securing greater representation, said the Economist Intelligence Unit, a London-based forecasting firm, in its latest report on Tanzania. Political analysts said the acts of hooliganism and violence witnessed in the country and allegations of conspiracies could wreak more havoc within the country’s political parties.

Political analysts are watching to see how President Kikwete will handle the twin challenge of overhauling CCM to rein in on the factions within it and managing the country’s politics. Having been liberated from the constraints of pleasing different factions in order to maintain support, Kikwete is expected to pursue reform more vigorously in his final term in office.

However, since the start of 2011, it has become increasingly clear that there will be a background rumble of discontent as Chadema, which emerged as the main opposition party at the 2010 elections, seeks to establish a more high-profile political role.

The outcome of the by-election is also likely to be a gamechanger in Tanzania’s land policy as politicians have put land redistribution at the top of their agenda in the Arumeru East campaigns, which could see large tracts of land owned by big horticultural investors seized and reallocated to poor households.

(Read: Dar’s horticultural sector at stake over land reforms agenda)

Inaugurating the CCM campaign three weeks ago, former president Benjamin Mkapa announced that he was going to advise President Kikwete to undertake land reform in Meru. Mr Mkapa said that the land reform will see the seizure of big tracts of land owned by rich individuals and their transfer to poor, landless people on the slopes of the Mount Meru.

(Read: Arusha, central govt clash over pledged land)

Chadema’s flag bearer in hotly contested by-election, Joshua Nasari, has vowed to repossess land if elected.