The big victory of Tanzania’s main opposition party, Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo, in the Arumeru East by-election has sent early warning signals about the future of the political landscape in the country.

Chadema’s 26-year-old candidate, Joshua Nassari, was declared the winner last weekend, garnering 32,972 votes — 54 per cent of the vote. Mr Nassari’s closest rival, the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi’s flag bearer, Sioi Sumari, got 26,757 votes, or around 44 per cent.

Arumeru East constituency returning officer Trasias Kagenzi said while more than 120,000 people registered for the by-election, only 60,696 voted. Eligible votes were 60,038 while 661 votes were spoilt.

(Read: Dar’s electoral discipline on trial in Arumeru)

There were eight candidates running for the seat, but the remaining six did not even manage three figures.

Political pundits say the Arumeru-East by-election signals that the 2015 general election will be an unprecedentedly competitive one.

“The era of CCM landslides is gone. Chadema is emerging as a serious threat to the ruling party’s dominance while small political parties seem to be fading away,” said Gasper Mpehongwa, a lecturer at Tumaini University in Kilimanjaro. Dr Mpehongwa added that the highly contested by-election also showed the increased political awareness in both rural and urban areas.

Dr Kitilya Mkumbo of the University of Dar es Salaam said the result of the vote showed CCM is losing popularity ahead of the big battle in 2015. “This was a key opener for the 2015 general election.”

Whereas Chadema does not have the countrywide reach of CCM, analysts say it is only a matter of time before the main opposition party gains national recognition.

“Chadema has now secured victory in all strategic constituencies in northern Tanzania, from Karatu and Arusha Urban to Arumeru, Hai, Rombo and Moshi Urban. What this translates into in political terms is that the party will gain visibility and attract more voters,” said Paul Sarwatt, a senior political journalist.

A young political analyst, Ian Mbaya, argued that one of the contributing factors to the declining popularity of CCM is poor governance. “Government officials are not accountable and transparent,” Mr Mbaya noted. The 50-year-old party is that it has failed to adequately respond to the allegations leveled by Chadema that the country’s poverty is linked to the corrupt practices of some CCM officials. In 2008, Chadema released a “list of shame” of CCM members allegedly responsible for grand corruption. Up to now, not a single person has taken Chadema to court for defamation. 

CCM’s ideology and publicity secretary Nape Nnauye however said: “We have made radical reforms to check our weaknesses, including unethical conduct among the rank and file.”

Mr Nnauye said his party had had reduced the problem of unethical conduct “by 50 per cent.”