President Yoweri Museveni may have won the 22 year-old war against northern Ugandan rebels, the Lord’s Resistance Army, but another, much more complicated war is afoot — with pro-monarchy supporters of the Buganda kingdom.

Analysts say the “war” took a new turn on December 17, the day Kabaka Ronald Muwenda Mutebi II, traditional king of the over five million Baganda, called a conference in the heart of the city to denounce opponents of his demands for poltical power.

Baganda are Uganda’s largest and most influential tribe. They live on the northern shores of Lake Victoria — the country’s most fertile belt.

Baganda kings, who had reigned in almost unbroken succession since the 1300s, had almost absolute sway and could demand death on the spot, as they did for the 22 world-renowned Uganda Martyrs in 1884.

Ugandan legislators began debating a new Bill in parliament mid-December aimed at allowing disparate districts to come together and form regional blocs that would resemble the old kingdoms, albeit without political power for the monarchies.

Titular heads

Where kingdoms existed —Bunyoro in western Uganda, Busoga in the east, Lango and Acholi in the north — the traditional leader would be titular head of these regions.

But his role would be limited to appointing at least 15 per cent of his own representatives to a regional legislative assembly, purely to oversee cultural matters.

“That is not the federal system we are demanding,” said Betty Kamya, Member of Parliament for the strategic Lubaga North constituency southwest of Kampala.

“What we are asking for is a full-fledged federal system of government that will allow the regions to plan and execute their own development,” she said.

Museveni was warned by analysts in 1993 when he allowed monarchies to once again practise — 27 years after they were brutally abolished by former leader Milton Obote of the Uganda People’s Congress.

The war in the north of the country has all but ended after a lengthy process of peace talks with LRA boss Joseph Kony, although the elusive rebel leader is yet to pen the accord brokered by former Mozambican president Joachim Chissano.

“It is the new war that he has to brace himself for,” said Isha Otto, whose northern Ugandan Oyam South constituency neighbours Obote’s political cradle.

“It is much more complicated. It is in the capital,” added a political science lecturer at Makerere University.

The September 2009 riots, in which a police station was set ablaze and scores of people killed brought Kampala to a standstill for three days after the government blocked Kabaka Mutebi’s representative from accessing a region the Kabaka wanted to visit.

It was the worst challenge in a long time to President Museveni, a former guerrilla leader.

“He has to redefine his weapons,” said a Baganda politician. “These could involve boycotts — and that’s a lethal economic weapon,” she added.

Ugandan laws do not proscribe boycotts. One called by the Buganda kingdom earlier this year throttled the operations of The New Vision, forcing them to ask for forgiveness from the king, after the profitable government daily alleged he had mortgaged a key kingdom property for cash.

Front-page apology

The paper was forced to run a front-page apology — a thing it has done very rarely since Museveni came to power.

Demanding a full federalism for Buganda, Kabaka Mutebi pointed to the outcome of a nationwide exercise to draw a new constitution that ended in 1992.

The Constitution, which was debated before coming into force in 1995, however deleted this clause on federalism. Instead, the government handed down decentralisation, with power and budget control being given to districts, leading to many new ones being created after local politicians demanded them.

“The small districts are not viable; which is why we need the regional tier system being proposed by the government,” said Oyam legislator Otto.

“That, we in Lango support; federalism, we do not,” he added in an interview.

Lango — the birthplace of Obote— is viewed with suspicion by the Baganda after Obote abolished the kingdoms in a 1967 constitution.

But the Baganda need all such big ethnic groups to support its quest for a federal system of governance, analysts say.

All round support

The kingdom would need the support as well of Bunyoro — which has consistently been a key Buganda opponent from the times of colonial rule; Busoga, a traditional ally and Acholi. Recent moves by these tribal groups have tended to isolate Buganda, seen as an arrogant partner.

All Uganda’s traditional leaders met in the country’s west recently to agree a common development goal, officially dropping demands for full-blown federalism and forming a business wing to invest money for profit to run their kingdoms.

Buganda says the president is fronting these groups to weaken Buganda. He is also accused of encouraging tiny clans to break away from the kingdom. Two of these — the Baruuli and Banyala, central Ugandan districts — have done so and been recognised by the president as legitimate kingdom entities.