The looming contest for the new Secretary-General of the East African Community, is throwing the spotlight again on the complex relations between Rwanda and Kenya and Uganda.

For over a decade, relations between Kampala and Kigali had mirrored what you would expect of two jealous siblings in a big family dynasty struggling to hide its divisions.

Uganda and Rwanda share a common history and blood, with the former acting as the big brother to the latter providing a home for decades to millions of its displaced families.

From the time the Rwanda Patriotic Front took power in 1994, Kampala and Kigali became strong allies.

Their security and strategic interests were woven in the same ideology of military conquest, embedded in guerrilla wars that had deposed governments in Uganda, Rwanda and DR Congo.

The two countries who went into the DR Congo fought two wars inside eastern DR Congo, and accused each of supporting their rival dissident group.

As relations soured between Kampala and Kigali, they warmed up between Kagame and President Mwai Kibaki who came to power at the low point in Museveni and Kagame’s relations.

Nairobi became the sponsor of Rwanda’s Finance Minister Donald Kaberuka to be president of the African Development Bank. Soon, Rwanda built a spanking new and impressive embassy in Nairobi, one of the largest.

Kenya was also seen as the warmest old EAC partner to Rwanda joining the EAC.

With Rwanda moving to enter the EAC, the diplomatic relations between Museveni’s government and Kagame warmed up again, and today they look like they wouldn’t be warmer.

While Rwanda is historically and cultural close to Uganda, its deepest economic links are with Kenya, which is the biggest source of its imports and exports within Africa, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Data from Kenya’s annual Economic Survey shows that Kenya exported goods worth $118 million to Rwanda in 2009, and imported $3 million dollars worth of goods, having in its favour a trade surplus worth $115.

Trade between the two countries has expanded significantly since Rwanda joined the EAC in 2006 as Kenyan firms have rushed to invest in the country.

However, analysts point out that lately, this relationship is getting more complicated by day as both Kagame and Museveni are staring at the sunset years of their rule as demonstrated by the current fight over the succession of the seat of the East African Community Secretary-General, currently held by Tanzania’s Juma Mwapachu, which falls vacant in April.

And Kenya, it would seem, might well abandon the “special relationship” with Rwanda and throw Kigali under the bus.

To begin with President Museveni, many expect him to win and start his final term in less than month, and which ends in 2016.

President Kagame is serving his last term as well, which will end in 2017, the same year that Kenya goes into a presidential election.

Though the matter has not been discussed officially by the member states, in the past one month, President Kagame has launched a high profile media campaign -- by a head of state -- saying that plans to get a Kenyan to take over from Mr Mwapachu will not go down well with Rwanda and Burundi.

“What is official is that the post is falling vacant in April but what I haven’t been told officially is that there is a dispute...But if we were to go by what is in the news, I think there are certain things that are clear. This is not an elective office — it is rotational country by country.” President Kagame told journalists in Rwanda at a monthly press briefing he hosts: “I don’t know how this (the rotational process) is going to change even when there haven’t been discussions to change. My expectation is that rules will be followed, and to my knowledge it is the turn for Rwanda or Burundi.”

Kenya’s position however is that the East African Community effectively came into force at the end of four years of that interim period in 2000.

This would mean that Francis Muthaura, the current head of Public Service and Secretary to the Cabinet in Kenya, served as Secretary-General for one year.

Officials argues that this was a transitional position.

Muthaura who’s the current Head of Civil Service held the position from March 1996 to March 2001 at a time when representatives from the region were trying to revive the EAC. Uganda maintains the same position.

A big question that emerges, is why the position of Secretary-General of the EAC, which would not ordinarily be an issue that would raise heads because of Arusha’s marginal influence in the regional political capitals, is now a political hot-button issue?

Analysts are now beginning to connect the dots to the succession politics at the national and regional level as we near 2017 when four of the five current presidents will be retiring from power, and Kenya’s incumbent-post Kibaki head of state will be seeking a re-election.

At a regional level, President Museveni is said to be the force behind Kenya’s bid to get its own national picked to take over after Mwapachu.

President Museveni once publicly declared that wants to be first president of EAC political federation, which is mooted around 2017 or thereabouts.

According to analysts, consolidating Museveni’s then three decade rule into a regional — or even pan-African — elder statesman status would be an enticing retirement package.

This is especially if it would also coincide with a time when Uganda would have been pumping oil out of its Lake Albert basin for at least five years, meaning that he could back his desire to be a regional hegemony with growing petrodollars treasure.

Museveni’s profile in Arusha would transform its political profile, where it would start exerting some influence in member’s capitals.

If Kenya succeeds in getting one of its won to succeed Mwapachu, it would serve Museveni’s ambitions better by providing a predictable ally who would spearhead the most difficult transformation of the EAC into a Monetary Union with a single currency and a political federation with a popularly-elected leader.

Creating both a Monetary Union and political federation will be both a monumental task that will require a great deal of political and public goodwill and sacrifice if it is to be achieved in the next decade.

The fight about who becomes the next head of the EAC is both linked to the pace and depth of integration that the members want and linked to the political ambitions of some of the leaders.

Big Brother

Both Uganda and Kenya are also very keen to get Southern Sudan admitted to the EAC even though it barely exists as a viable state.

For Southern Sudan’s EAC project to stay on track, its leaders believe that they would need a big brother from the bigger members, which in this case naturally falls on Kenya, because Uganda is self interested in the matter, and has already served in the position. Hence the reason for Uganda’s proxy fight for Kenya.

Kenya’s EAC Permanent Secretary David Nalo has maintained that Muthaura would technically not have been selected to head the body he steered into formation.  

“One cannot become the head of a body whose formation he has been involved in,” Mr Nalo noted, saying that the argument that Kenya had its time at the helm of the regional body lacked credibility.

He added that since The EastAfrican broke the story two months ago, he has spent a lot of time making people understand “where we are coming from.” 

He said it was important it be understood that the first Heads of State Summit sat in 2001, a year after the Treaty establishing the Community was ratified and set the terms of service for the Secretary-General, the most visible being a non-renewable five-year contract, on rotational basis.

“Kenya, having steered the process leading to the rebirth of the bloc, could not have taken the seat, which went to Amanya Mushenga of Uganda, who handed over to the incumbent, Juma Mwapachu, in 2006,” he said, adding that this makes the country a contender for the position, together with Rwanda and Burundi.

The same argument has been fronted by Uganda’s EAC Minister Eriya Kategaya.

Mr Nalo however downplayed  reports that the situation was dividing the region between Rwanda and Burundi on one hand, and Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya on the other.

“There is nothing that can sharply divide the EAC, I am certain the Summit will end this debate for the satisfaction of all the five partner states,” he said.

Burundi and Tanzania have been quiet as Rwanda comes out guns blazing laying what it calls its legitimate claim to the seat.

Kenya has not come out as forcefully but all indications are that the country is selling its case, while Uganda has only said that the three are in the race.