Northern Uganda has turned into the new political battleground from which frontrunners in the presidential race are looking to bolster their chances ahead of the February 2011 polls.

This is a result of strong undercurrents in Buganda, where there is agitation for federalism and regime change, all threatening President Yoweri Museveni’s dominance.

The incumbent has now set his eyes on northern Uganda — traditionally an opposition stronghold — to offset his losses in Buganda, where pro-monarchy pressure group “Suubi 2011” cut a deal with the Opposition coalition led by Dr Kiiza Besigye.

The deal is expected to divide the vote in the central region between the pro-Buganda monarchy-Opposition alliance and the ruling party, leaving Museveni in an unfamiliar tight corner, forcing him to look for votes elsewhere.

For the past two weeks, Museveni has been combing the villages of Lango and West Nile sub-regions in a desperate attempt to make early inroads.

The North, theatre of a two-decade insurgency by the Joseph Kony-led Lord’s Resistance Army, has traditionally voted against Museveni in all previous three elections.

It did not matter which way the North voted though, since in addition to what was termed vote fraud, Museveni retained massive support especially in his homeland of western Uganda, central and parts of eastern Uganda.

The Opposition coalition, well aware that the incumbent is this time round desperate for the northern Uganda vote, is on alert to counter Museveni’s moves.

Reagan Okumu, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) strongman in the Acholi sub-region says the fight for northern Uganda is on, but is certain his party will retain the vote in that area.

“The North is going to be a big factor,” said Mr Okumu. “But in terms of principle, it cannot be forced or bribed into voting for a certain candidate.

Because of this, it is the North that will determine the electoral outcome since Buganda is already divided between the Opposition and the [ruling party] National Resistance Movement.”

Museveni has been forced to go north by a number of factors.
First, the LRA insurgency of 1986-2006 which moved out of Ugandan soil, to pave way for the botched Juba peace talks, opened the way for the ruling NRM which started reconstruction and resettlement programmes for the formerly internally displaced persons.

NRM now believes that the Opposition no longer has a trump card with which to woo the voters and deny the incumbent votes.

Second, electoral victory being a game of numbers, the North suddenly becomes a battleground for the 2011 poll due to the changing population trends.

While the region has traditionally had the smallest population, it has had the fastest growth over the past decade.

According to the 2002 census, northern Uganda had the highest population growth of 4.6 per cent against the national average of 3.2 per cent.

But significantly, in the next three years, the population there has been projected to increase by 700,000 persons while the least increase of about 500,000 persons will be registered in Museveni’s stronghold — in central and western Uganda.

The trend has continued — an increase in the North producing the opposite effect in the more Central and West which are more conscious of the dangers of high population. Clearly, the North has been catching up in terms of voter numbers.

Downside

This does not augur well for Museveni, say political analysts. The North has never been his favourite hunting ground despite many promises.

“His manifesto has been objectionable to the people of northern Uganda for historical reasons. It will be interesting to see how he plays the peace dividend,” said Dr. Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, researcher and political analyst.

Critics say that the ruling party’s losses in the North reflect a rejection of a southern Bantu-led regime that has ostracised the Nilotic tribes of the North, which Museveni takes blame for, for his “attitude” to the people of northern Uganda, rather than because of the war.

The North, for instance, voted Paulo Ssemogerere in 1996 and in 2001 and 2006 Kiiza Besigye, who both hail from the central and western Uganda respectively.

“Because of his sectarian tendencies and his general attitude to people from the North, Museveni will always have a tainted name in the North just like Obote has remained with a tainted image in Buganda,” a source said.

Central Buganda — which also lies within the Buganda Kingdom — still holds a strong constituency for Museveni particularly within the cattle corridors, which the incumbent is projected to sweep in next year’s poll.

However, the urban population within this region tends to vote for the Opposition. Because of this divide, Buganda will cede its role as king maker to the Greater North — which comprises of Lango, West Nile, Acholi, Karamoja and Teso sub regions.

While the Opposition’s alliance with pro-Buganda activists will eat away a chunk of Museveni support in Buganda, it is the incumbent’s fortunes in Western Uganda that may dwindle unexpectedly due to experienced opposition forces, which in past elections have sat on the fence, now coming full swing into the picture.

“Western Uganda votes Museveni not because he has done anything spectacular there. It’s just that he is from there. But you have to look at how the FDC has been organising around seasoned politicians like Amanya Mushega, Richard Kaijuka and Yona Kanyomozi. So, expect Museveni to win in the west, but with lower margins,” he added.