The Horn of Africa is facing another familiar and dangerous tension as Ethiopia and Eritrea spar in public.
Despite both countries saying they are not interested in war, the rhetoric from both capitals have not hidden the growing animosity between them.
Ethiopia and Eritrea may be rivals shaped by years of bloodshed. But this new tension has broken an environment of calm that had seen Eritrean forces even back Ethiopian troops in the Tigray war.
But after Tigray conflict was somewhat resolved, we have seen another slide toward the prospect of war. The border is tense, with both sides massing troops.
Old wounds, once papered over by a fragile peace, are reopening. The stakes go far beyond their borderlands — another full-scale war between these two countries could destabilise the entire region.
In the past, their friendship was on and off. By 1998, the two were fighting over a patch of contested borderland, dragging both nations into yet another brutal war.
The conflict killed tens of thousands and left both sides locked in hostility. It wasn’t until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s unexpected visit to Asmara in 2018 that the two began talking peace again.
Yet the peace never fully held. Eritrean troops backed Ethiopia in the fight against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), but when peace was brokered in Pretoria in 2022 by the African Union, Eritrea was left out of the deal. The fallout has strained relations ever since.
Now both sides have ramped up military deployments along their shared border, even though they officially vow to avoid war. Tigray is also unravelling from within, with rival factions turning on each other.
While Ethiopia accused Eritrea of fuelling the unrest, talk in Addis Ababa about reclaiming a path to the Red Sea has only heightened tensions in Asmara.
If fighting breaks out, it will not be a local affair. Both countries are militarised, and their history suggests that any border clash could escalate quickly.
Worse, this could draw in regional and global actors — from Egypt, Israel, Gulf States to Western governments with stakes in Red Sea security and migration flows.
A renewed war would come at a heavy price. Both sides are heavily armed, and given their history, even a small clash could spiral fast.
The danger goes beyond their border -Â Egypt, Gulf states, Western powers, and others with interests in the Red Sea could quickly find themselves pulled in.
Another war would be ruinous. Ethiopia is struggling with internal divisions, a weakening economy, and mounting unrest. Eritrea remains isolated, its people burdened by conscription and President Isaias Afwerki and his party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice—(Shabia)— are firmly in control. A new war would only push both countries closer to economic collapse and deepen the misery on both sides of the border.
The fallout wouldn’t stop at their borders. A war in the Horn of Africa will rarely stay contained. Another Ethiopia-Eritrea war would possibly unravel the whole region.
It would likely drag in neighbours such as Sudan and Somalia, displace thousands, fuel violent extremism, insurgency, guerrilla warfare, arms trafficking, and turn the region into a battleground for outside powers.
For the region to avoid this conflict, leaders should act now. The African Union and member states must urgently step in and bring both sides to the table before shots are fired.
The region should bring external players into line: Egypt, the Gulf states, the US, China, and the EU all have a stake in Red Sea security. They need to coordinate their influence and push both Ethiopia and Eritrea to step back from confrontation and commit to regional stability.
More importantly, Ethiopia should put its house in order: Addis Ababa must confront its internal fractures, starting with long-standing tensions in Tigray, before those domestic issues spill over and fuel external conflict.
While at it, the African Union should deploy a credible mediator: The African Union with the support of neutral member states should urgently appoint a senior envoy—someone with credibility and access to both sides—to broker talks, calm the situation, and open a path to long-term de-escalation.
This tension won’t end if both sides avoid dialogue. Ethiopia and Eritrea need to reopen military and political channels, pull troops back from the sensitive border areas, and take real steps to defuse tensions before they spiral out of control.
As this is a risk to the wider Horn of Africa, neighboring states like Sudan and Somalia would face spillover effects, including refugee flows, arms proliferation and the risk of proxy involvement by outside powers.
The Horn of has little room for another war. Both governments are under growing pressure — economically, politically, and socially — but renewed active conflict will only make matters worse. The question now is whether African and international actors can act quickly enough to prevent history from repeating itself.
