Ethiopia and Eritrea have seemingly been on the mend about their ties. But things have started to unravel again in what experts warn is a longtime sign of unfinished reconciliation between the two countries that were once one.
Last week, former Ethiopian president Mulatu Teshome, a close ally of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, accused Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki of "working to reignite conflict in northern Ethiopia and he must be stopped."
He accused Eritrea of involving “in almost every major conflict in the Horn of Africa,” and engaging in actions that could “reignite war in northern Ethiopia."
The beef from the ex-President is that he and most of the political elites in Addis Ababa, believe Eritrea, once an ally of Ethiopia, is now fueling divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), an armed political movement that had gone to war with the government of Ethiopia in 2020.
TPLF later signed a peace deal with the government in November 2020. But it caused allied armed groups that had supported the government forces, especially in Amhara state, to start fighting the government, disagreeing over the proposal to disarm.
“War is the main business and preoccupation of the Eritrean state. Stirring conflict here and there, supporting rebels, insurgents, or governments seeking war and division throughout the region seems to be the raison d’être of the Eritrean state,” added Mulatu who specifically accused the Eritrean government is supporting one faction of the TPLF and a militia group operating in the Amhara region.
Eritrea has immediately dismissed the accusations, accusing Ethiopia of “externalizing” its internal issues.
Yemane GebreMeskel, Eritrea’s Minister of Information, described Mulatu’s claims as “audacious…precisely intended to conceal and rationalise a war-mongering agenda,” adding that that Eritrea has acted in accordance with international law and has no interest in interfering in Ethiopia’s internal matters.
Eritrea and Ethiopia haven’t always been in good terms, and had gone to war in the past in 1998, a conflict that ended in 2000 on the mediation of Algeria. However, some pending issues including border demarcation and institutional transfer of resources remained sticking points.
The two neighbours formally restored relations in 2018 shortly after Abiy Ahmed assumed power as Ethiopian Prime Minister. He personally flew to the Eritrean capital, Asmara, where he signed a Peace agreement with president Isaias Afeworki to end 20 years of diplomatic and armed tensions.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki celebrate the reopening of the Eritrea's embassy in Addis Ababa on July 16, 2018.
Photo credit: File | AFP
However, the details of the 2018 peace deal remain unclear as it lacked institutional arrangement nor were they endorsed by parliament, something experts say is returning to haunt the ties.
The cracks had first appeared in June 2021 when Abiy withdrew his troops from Tigray unilaterally without informing the Eritrean military that was backing him against TPLF.
TPLF and Abiy government would sign the Pretoria peace deal, known as the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) on November 22, 2022 that ended the bloody Tigray war in northern Ethiopia.
But the deal left out the key protagonists to the conflict, including Eritrea itself and the Amhara defence forces.
The latest spark emerged in 2023 when Abiy declared access to the Red Sea is an existential matter to Ethiopia and said Ethiopians should at least start discussing the red sea. Eritrea used to be Ethiopia’s access to the sea. But after it seceded in 1991, Ethiopian became landlocked.
"Ethiopia will secure direct access to a port, either peacefully or, if necessary, by force,” he said.
"By 2030 Ethiopia will have 150 million people. A population of 150 million can’t live in a geographic prison.”
Addressing MPs, Abiy said if the Nile is an existential issue for the Egyptians and the Sudanese while originating from Ethiopia and discussing it openly isn’t a taboo, discussing the red sea shouldn’t be a taboo for Ethiopians.
“The thing that saddens me the most and pains me, is that discussing the Red Sea agenda even at the level of parliamentarians is considered a taboo,” he added.
According to Metta-Alem Sinishaw, an Ethiopian political analyst, Abiy’s statement targeted Eritrea.
“Abiy’s subsequent rhetoric over the Assab, assertion that the Red Sea is Ethiopian natural boundary together with Marshal Birhanu Jula’s (Ethiopia’ military chief) classification of Eritrea as adversary made military confrontation the most likely outcome," he told The EastAfrican.
At the end of 2024, Eritrea forged partnership with Egypt and Somalia and emerged as a key regional player to the chagrin of Ethiopia.
At the time, Ethiopia’s relations with Somalia were tense over Addis Ababa’s proposal to lease a naval base in Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia. The two sides have since walked back on their risky rhetoric. But Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt are still committed to their alliance.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (left) with Presidents Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea (right) and Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed of Somalia sit in a helicopter during their visit to Gondar, northern Ethiopia, on November 9, 2018.
Photo credit: File | AFP
Between Eritrea and Ethiopia, the two sides had, however, intentionally avoided official statements directly pointing fingers. Yet absence of war hasn’t meant peace.
“Eritrea has already started supporting Ethiopian opposition groups in a bid to hinder Pretoria peace agreement which ended the Tigray War," Yonas Asmerom, an Eritrean political analyst told The EastAfrican.
"President Isaias sees the Pretoria peace deal as an obstacle to his desired influence in Ethiopia and the region, and he wanted the Tigray war to continue as he initially wanted his long-standing foe, TPLF is eliminated and never comes back to the Ethiopian or regional politics."
Divisions in TPLF, he argued, will ensure the deal doesn’t last, providing a new headache for Ethiopia.
Metta-Alem argues that Eritrea won its political independence in 1991 through armed struggle, its cultural ties and economic interdependence with Ethiopia were never negotiated through institutional arrangement, he said.
"The lack of legitimate settlement made Ethiopia landlocked that prompted a need for access to the sea which in turn makes Ethiopia a perpetual threat for Eritrean security and sovereignty," he said.
The Tigray war sort of provided opportunity for both sides to deal with a common enemy. But as Eritrea mobilises its army reserves, he warned there is now a serious sign that the two sides could clash in a conflict likely to be exploited politically.
“The war offers Ethiopia to strengthen its severely weaken army and galvanise public support in the face of dwindling popularity for the ruling Prosperity Party (PP).”
"Public sentiment will shift away from the upcoming Ethiopian election in which PP can easily manipulate the outcome, as it did in 2020 during the Tigray war."
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