The Nairobi High-Level Mediation on South Sudan, known as Tumaini, took a Christmas break on December 14 after 10 days of inconclusive talks, raising doubts that it will resume as planned on January 15, 2025.
The talks resumed on December 4 after a three-month hiatus, but the newly formed government delegation and the South Sudan Opposition Movement Alliance (Ssoma) failed to agree on how to proceed.
There are doubts within Ssoma that the government delegation, which flew back to Juba on December 14, will return to the negotiating table early next year after ignoring an appeal by the main mediator, President William Ruto, not to adjourn the talks without tangible results.
Opposition organisations say that the new meetings were meant to validate the eight initialled protocols before moving on to discussing responsibility-sharing and signing a final agreement, but the new government delegation was unable to reach a consensus on how to proceed.
“The leadership of Ssoma and other opposition groups would like to inform the people of South Sudan, the region and the international community that the Tumaini negotiations are deadlocked,” Lual Dau, spokesperson of the opposition, said in a statement.
“The new government delegation came with a new position denying agreed Tumaini protocols as indicated in the November 6, 2024 Juba Joint Communique. It is clear that the government did not only change the delegation but it has also changed its position.”
Mr Dau said that instead of focusing on negotiating the power-sharing protocol – the only outstanding issue – the government wanted to reopen all eight initialled protocols and renegotiate the consensus from scratch.
But the new government delegation argued that it had reservations and observations on the initialled protocols and wanted them opened for discussion and also aligned with the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) to avoid duplication.
Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, who is also deputy head of the government delegation, denied that the talks had failed, saying the delegation had returned to Juba for consultations.
He explained that the government had asked to be allowed to present its reservations on the initialled protocols first in order to move the talks forward, but the opposition insisted that only responsibility-sharing and the conclusion of the talks should be discussed.
“We made observations that there are repetitions and there are mechanisms and structures that are parallel to and contradict R-ARCSS,” Mr Chol said, adding that it was President Salva Kiir who reached out to President Ruto to host the talks and therefore the government delegation has no power to scuttle them.
But when the talks resumed on December 4, Pagan Amum, leader of the Real-SPLM, raised the alarm about the problems ahead, saying that Juba had brought in an entirely new team that had not been involved in the previous negotiations.
“The talks are dead because the government delegation walked out,” said Mr Amum.
Opposition leaders claim that the new delegation includes several anti-Tumaini figures who have been pressuring President Kiir to abandon the talks.
Dr Mohamed Guyo, deputy chief mediator, said the talks had made significant progress and that the government delegation had requested an adjournment to return to Juba for further consultations before the talks resume in mid-January.
“The Tumaini Initiative remains committed to fostering an inclusive and lasting peace for the people of South Sudan. We urge all stakeholders to maintain momentum and prioritise the aspirations of South Sudanese citizens for unity, stability, and development,” he said.
He said the mediation had reviewed the government's position paper, identified the issues it raised, consulted the opposition and stakeholders and incorporated their position into four agenda items from which a bridging proposal had been developed.
Dr Guyo said the parties agreed that the January talks would focus on four key areas: the relationship between the Tumaini Initiative and the R-ARCSS; the repetition, mechanisms, structures and contradictions between the Tumaini Initiative Protocols and the R-ARCSS; the sharing of responsibilities; and the conclusion of the Tumaini Initiative, the signing date of which will be jointly decided by President Ruto and President Kiir.
“The framework for the single negotiating text was developed taking into account the position of all parties and, during the initial phase of the Tumaini Initiative, the parties submitted their positions at the beginning of the negotiations from which the eight protocols were developed,” he said.
But the general mood among those close to President Kiir is one of pessimism.
John Anduga Duku, former South Sudanese ambassador to China and a close Kiir ally, said Tumaini would not bring peace to the country because the people still fighting, such as General Thomas Cirillo, leader of the National Salvation Front, and General Simon Gatwech Dual, leader of the SPLM-IO Kitgwang faction, were not involved.
“Tumaini is being portrayed as the last chance for peace in South Sudan, and yet the people with the guns are not in Nairobi. It is fine if Tumaini is about incorporating the opposition negotiating in Nairobi into government, but it gives false expectations that the Nairobi talks are the answer to ultimate peace,” Mr Duku said.
After considering the positions of both parties, the mediation led by General (Rtd) Lazarus Sumbeiywo has produced a new document, "Draft Framework for the Tumaini Complement to R-ARCSS", which it hopes will address the concerns of all parties.
The document recognises that the Tumaini Consensus Protocols and the R-ARCSS are complementary and that the protocols strengthen the provisions of the R-ARCSS by filling in the gaps and strengthening the implementation mechanisms and institutions so that they are empowered and adequately resourced.
The framework states that, “The parties and stakeholders agree that there is a need to increase the pace of implementation of R-ARCSS and that there shall be established a National High-Level Leadership Council (NHLC) reporting to the Presidency and shall be part of the extended Presidency on matters relating to the implementation of the Agreement.”
The parties are expected to negotiate on the composition, roles and responsibilities, and the chair and vice-chair of the NHLC, which establishes a National Implementation and Oversight Commission as a Secretariat, and whose chairperson will not be from the same party chairing the NHLC.
“Upon signing, the Tumaini Complement to R-ARCSS shall transition to the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad). The presidents of the republics of Kenya and South Sudan shall decide the date for the official signing of a final Agreement,” the draft says.
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