By OTIENO OTIENO

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President William Ruto started his two-day tour of three counties in Nyanza on Friday, pledging support for government programmes and other initiatives meant to grow the economy of a region that has historically complained of marginalisation.

It is the second time Ruto is visiting the region as president, having attended a church service and addressed roadside meetings in Homa Bay County on October 2 – less than three weeks into his presidency.

The official State House statement announcing his itinerary during the latest trip that will also take him to Kisumu and Siaya counties portrayed it as fairly routine, mirroring those he has recently made to other regions.

But the Nyanza tour has received highly disproportionate attention in the local media amid speculation that it is part of an intricate political scheme by the president to consolidate power, cushion himself against possible fallouts within his Kenya Kwanza coalition, expand his support base and enhance chances of re-election in 2027.

Long considered the bedrock of Kenya’s opposition politics, Nyanza like the neighbouring former Western Province, has largely voted for former prime minister Raila Odinga in the past four elections.

Political force

The disputed outcome of the 2022 election, in which Odinga once again claimed his victory was stolen, heightened the sense of grievance in the region predominantly inhabited by the Luo community.

The community’s sizeable urban diaspora, its loyal support for Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party and its mobilisation feeder lines for many of Odinga’s anti-government campaigns also often make it a political force to reckon with.

Although Ruto has ruled out the possibility of a formal cooperation deal with the opposition, similar to the one his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta struck with the ODM party leader in 2018, the Kenyan leader would no doubt relish the slightest opportunity to keep the restless political base quiet.

The deal popularly known as the Handshake helped defuse political tension then building up in the country after Odinga called for civil disobedience to protest the outcome of the 2017 presidential election. The poll was repeated after the Supreme Court nullified Kenyatta’s first victory over irregularities in results transmission and vote tallying.

Kenyatta, who broke with tradition to endorse the opposition leader to succeed him in the last election, also praised the deal for having enabled his administration to survive an internal party rebellion fomented by a faction loyal to then deputy president Ruto during their second term in office.

Read: How Uhuru ditched buddy Ruto and turned to 'enemy' Raila

Ruto, only five months in office, has yet to experience any internal party threats to his leadership.

But political coalitions in Kenya, loosely built from ethnic-based parties and beholden to personalities with clashing ambitions, are often only one major grievance away from trouble.

Reports of an unravelling tension in the Kenya Kwanza coalition between Mt Kenya and Western Kenya factions loyal to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi have exposed a fragility that could take a life of its own.

The Mt Kenya group feels it is entitled to a bigger voice on decisions in the coalition by virtue of their community having given the most votes to the president outside his Rift Valley backyard.

The simmering tension recently boiled over in Nairobi where Gachagua publicly opposed Governor Johnson Sakaja’s ban on nightclubs operating in residential estates and passenger vehicles entering the central business district.

Read: Nairobi governor Sakaja walks a tightrope

Meanwhile the Western Kenya group has rallied behind the governor, terming the deputy president a tribalist.

Balancing act

Ruto has appeared to be keen to keep both Gachagua and Mudavadi happy by assigning their respective offices seemingly powerful roles in government through recent executive orders.

But his persistent courtship of the Western Kenya voting bloc – including Nyanza and the former Western Province – also suggests he wouldn’t mind building a counterweight to the Mt Kenya influence in the coalition.

The populous Mt Kenya, which has produced three of the country’s five presidents and is home to some of its top campaign financiers, voted overwhelmingly for the president in 2022 but could also pose the greatest threat to his stranglehold on power in case of a fallout in the ruling coalition.

With Odinga approaching the twilight of his political career and a sixth bid in 2027 – when he will be 82 – looking unlikely, Ruto also sees an opportunity to expand his support base in areas that have traditionally voted for the veteran opposition leader.