Egypt rallies Somalia, Eritrea to new alliance amid Addis tensions

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is welcomed by his host President Isaias Afwerki in Asmara, Eritrea on October 10, 2024. 
 

Photo credit: Eritrea Foreign Minister via X

Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea this week cemented their unity to address what they called peace and security issues in the Horn of Africa. But observers reading between the lines said the common enemy in Ethiopia had necessitated the alliance.

Presidents Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia and Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea met in Asmara in a unique, tripartite summit, coming after weeks of tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, which is also not in good terms with Eritrea and Egypt over varied reasons.

After the summit, a joint communique referred to their territorial integrity and condemned any interference in one another’s internal affairs, but mostly pledged to support Somalia’s nascent security agencies.

“The leaders agreed to develop and deepen co-operation and co-ordination among the three countries to enhance the capacity of Somali state institutions to address various internal and external challenges, enabling the Somali National Army to counter terrorism in all its forms, protect its land and maritime borders, and maintain the unity of its territory,” the statement said.

They said they would adhere to the fundamental principles and tenets of international law as the foundation for relations between states and stability.

“This includes, most importantly, absolute respect for the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of countries in the region, opposing any interference in the internal affairs of these nations under any pretext or by any means, and supporting joint efforts to achieve regional peace, combat terrorism, and create a conducive environment for sustainable development.”

Egypt’s coming to the shores of Somalia raised tensions as Ethiopia protested its delivery of arms to Mogadishu. But Somalia also protested Ethiopia’s delivery of arms into Somalia around the same time. Somalia now wants Ethiopia dropped from future military engagements against al-Shabaab, accusing Addis Ababa of territorial violations.

Their tensions first arose in January after Ethiopia signed a controversial MoU with Somaliland, which Mogadishu considers a part of its territory.

The joint communique did not mention Ethiopia by name, nor the MoU that has raised tensions.

“It is quite clear here that there is a problem, and the common denominator is Ethiopia. That is because Ethiopia seems to be a problem for Egypt, it is a problem for Somalia and it is a problem for Eritrea after the falling-out,” Dr Hawa Noor, author of a new book, Mobilization for Violent Politicized Islam Motivations of Former Participants in al-Shabaab, told The EastAfrican.

She argued the new unity was for convenience -- to gang up against Ethiopia, with which each of the trio has an axe to grind.

“But it is not the only thing,” said Dr Noor, who is also an independent researcher affiliated with the University of Bremen’s Institute for Intercultural and International Studies. “It is the latest development but you have to remember that relations are always fluid. Alliances, coalitions or cooperation are often based on new developments. This is part of the usual developments based on what countries do.”

Egypt has long opposed the building of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (Gerd) on the Nile and which Addis started to fill against Cairo’s protestations. Somalia’s beef with Ethiopia over the MoU and Eritrea’s falling-out with Ethiopia after the war in Tigray, in which they fought on the same side, completes the issues each side has with Ethiopia.

Abdisaid Muse Ali, a former Somalia Foreign minister and now Chairperson of Lomé Security and Peace Forum, says Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s “reckless decisions” are driving this coalition. The Ethiopian leader publicly declared Ethiopia’s intent to have access to the sea and went ahead to sign a deal with Somaliland to establish a naval base on its shores. But he also said this would mostly be done through peaceful means.

While that has raised the stakes, there is also no guarantee that the newest alliance can hold for long after the issues at stake are solved, or the administrations change.

“What happens if Abiy Ahmed is not ruling Ethiopia? Will this alliance exist? It is hard to see any concrete plans coming out of this,” Mr Ali said.

From 2018 to 2022, Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea were in an alliance, at that time united by a common goal of eliminating elements targeting their administrations. Which is why Eritrea and Ethiopia collaborated to fight the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). When Ethiopia signed a truce with TPLF, Eritrea fell out, seeing the move as protecting an old enemy of Asmara.

On Thursday, the three countries were talking tough, vowing to stay united to tackle overall issues of security beyond al-Shabaab.

“We also agreed on the seriousness of the ongoing situation that has disrupted international navigation in the Red Sea, negatively impacting global trade,” President al-Sisi said.

“We emphasised the importance of enhancing cooperation among Red Sea littoral States and developing institutional coordination frameworks to secure international navigation in the Red Sea and to enhance cooperation among these states to maximise the benefits of its natural resources.”

By that, he also brought in the new aspect of the Red Sea security and its importance to Egypt. Cairo relies on the Suez Canal to support its economy, charging fees to ships using the route to cross between the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea. They formed a tripartite committee of their foreign affairs ministers to come up with a joint strategy on security and regional cooperation.

Eritrea has been training some of the Somali National Army troops for the past three years. But it is the entry of Egyptians that have roiled the waters in the Horn of Africa. Egypt earlier signed a defence cooperation deal with Somalia, offered to train latter’s troops and equip them, and pledged to send men to be a part of a new African Union mission meant to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), whose mandate ends this December.

But Somalia did so while seeking to exclude Ethiopia from the next security arrangements, accusing Addis Ababa of trying to dismember Somalia’s territory. Ethiopian troops are a part of Atmis, and also serve in Somalia as part of a separate bilateral deal. Somalia has said it will end the arrangements.

The alliance could have different significance. For Somalia, it could offer more sense of security support against Ethiopia, now declared public enemy; for Egypt, it could provide assurances on the Red Sea security and isolation of Ethiopia; and for Asmara, it could offer it a way to get back at Ethiopia with whom they fought the TPLF but immediately fell out after truce was signed in November 2022. Eritrea has since stopped direct flights between Asmara and Addis Ababa.

Turkiye had been trying to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia over the controversial January MoU. The alliance may also reduce possibility of those talks continuing.

Ahead of the trip to Asmara, Egypt’s Foreign minister Badr Abdelatty on Wednesday met with African ambassadors accredited to Egypt to explain the moves in the Horn.

“He outlined Egypt’s position on a number of African and regional issues and their impact on the security and stability of the African continent,” a dispatch said.

Egypt relies to the traffic in the Red Sea to utilise the Suez Canal, one of its revenue generating facilities over the years. The can has already been rendered uncertain due to Houthi attacks on ships using it. But Egypt may have become more alarmed by Ethiopia’s plans to build a naval base on the coast of Somaliland.

Aggrey Mutambo and Abdulkadir Khalif