The Horn of Africa region is among the worst hit by climate change as drought, floods, and pests become common amid higher temperatures of 32 degrees Celsius.
After a terrible heatwave that saw temperatures soar to 42°C in countries such as South Sudan, the month of March is expected to bring rains. And it may not be a blessing to cool off the region, but bring with it disastrous floods.
A heatwave is a hot period of at least three consecutive days when temperatures exceed the normal range, usually reaching the highest 10 percent on record.
The first months of 2025 have been very hot. Most affected countries, such as South Sudan, were forced to close schools for two weeks in February due to extreme heat that caused pupils to collapse, with an average of 12 pupils per day in the capital Juba alone.
The World Meteorological Organisation and other regional weather agencies attribute the heat wave to changing ocean temperatures, which they predict will continue to be responsible for the heavy rains.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) said in its latest report that parts of central and northeastern Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania would experience unusual conditions.
Releasing its seasonal forecast, ICPAC said that parts of South Sudan, Uganda, and northern and western Kenya are experiencing persistent warmer than normal temperature anomalies with extreme temperatures, with daily maximum temperatures likely to reach 40 degrees Celsius in parts of South Sudan and Kenya.
ICPAC data indicate that torrential rains could occur in southern Tanzania and parts of southwestern Uganda in March, leading to flooding in these areas. Southwestern Uganda, particularly Kisoro, Kabale and parts of Kasese, is prone to flash floods and landslides when rain hits baked soil.
ICPAC says the heatwave can be partly explained by the rising levels of in greenhouse gases, which are reported to have reached record highs in 2024, with Africa warming faster than the global average, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
Uganda’s meteorological department said on Thursday that rains could arrive next week, although officials added that there could be a delay until the end of the month, explaining that a tropical cyclone currently present over the southern Indian Ocean was affecting the onset of rains in the country.
“This cyclone is pulling in moisture that would have otherwise been carried by the southeast winds into East Africa, including Uganda. As a result, rainfall formation is suppressed, delaying the onset of the March-April-May rainy season and extending the dry and hot conditions across the region,” said Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, Uganda’s Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Water and Environment.
“A delayed onset of rains is anticipated due to the tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean, with the rains establishing around mid to late March in most areas. The peak rainfall is expected between April and early May in most parts of the country. The temperatures, however, are expected to be warmer than average across the country during the period,” he added.
Uganda’s highest temperature was recorded in Kampala at just over 30 degrees Celsius, and according to the experts, cities and towns are experiencing higher temperatures than rural areas due to more surfaces that absorb and release heat, such as paved roads, and greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and factories.
“Fellow Ugandans, to stay safe and reduce the impact of the current extreme heat, my ministry recommends you stay indoors in the shade so that you reduce direct exposure to sunlight, especially during the peak hours; Take frequent showers so that you cool and regulate the body temperature; stay hydrated by drinking plenty of clean water during the day, limit physical activities, especially during the very hot periods,” Dr Okidi said, adding that the expected rains will have significant implications.
Uganda’s Parliament Committee on Climate Change raised its voice in the House on Wednesday, expressing concern about the coming rains. The legislators on the committee urged the government to prepare for the heavy rains and flooding.
“At the end of the dry season will come a lot of rain with floods because of the evaporation on open water such as Lake Victoria, the heat is boiling water, we must be disaster prepared, rather than waiting for relief support after the disaster,” the chairperson of the committee, Lawrence Biyika, said.
Debating a presentation on the weather patterns by the Minister of State for the Environment, Beatrice Anywar, on Wednesday, Mr Biyika, a graduate in environment and natural resources, said the government needed to consider adaptation measures to such climate change impacts, proposing a firm fight against deforestation and wetland destruction, which he said were on the rise.
Ms Anywar explained that according to meteorological reports, the current heatwave is expected to subside by the end of March 2025, ushering in the rainy season.
The heatwave in the region is not new. In March 2024, extreme heat forced schools to close in South Sudan after temperatures reached 45 degrees Celsius in Juba. The heatwave also affected southern African countries such as Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
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