Ruto’s game of chance in solving Sudan crisis

Nairobi had initially told the Sudan military government that it had no intention of supporting such an arrangement.

On January 26, Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ali al-Sadiq Youssef Ahmed travelled to Nairobi, where he was given the assurance.

“Nairobi has reconsidered its position towards Sudan based on new developments in the war,” Youssef told local media in Port Sudan. “The idea of RSF taking power in the country is over for Kenyan President William Ruto.” 

A statement from Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs avoided direct mention of the parallel government, but did pledge to “maintain dialogue” on issues of regional peace and security with Sudan.

Yet some officials see this move as ingenious in a crisis many peace bids have failed to solve. 

Some diplomats told The EastAfrican that President Ruto has long argued that a third track of political solution could force the warring sides to cease fire. 

Under the RSF structure of parallel government, each of the groups will have a role, with a Cabinet of up to 17 ministries. The EastAfrican understands the authority will be headed by RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemedti’. 

Such a structure would be the culmination of what Kenya has pushed behind the scenes, according to two diplomats who spoke in the background. 

While his spokesmen did not respond to our inquiries, President Ruto has in the past spoken of dialogue and a new type of government.

When he met with junta leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in November 2023, they issued a joint statement on “a framework for an all-inclusive Sudanese dialogue”. This was a meeting meant to ease tensions, but that didn’t last.

“It is important for civil society and organised groups to be part of the process that will culminate in not only peace but also the creation of a civilian government,” Ruto said last year in May, after some movements signed a “Nairobi Declaration”.

The Declaration promised to establish a federal civilian rule that could allow full participation of all and ensure the separation of cultural, religious and ethnic identities from the state. It also said parties would confront threats to peace in Sudan, and called for the “unity of Sudan, its sovereignty over its land and resources and the voluntary unity of its peoples and decentralised governance”.

That declaration pooled groups such as the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdul Wahid Mohamed Nur, which controlled large swathes of Jabel Marra region on Western Darfur, and the Sudan Liberation Movement-North led by Abdelaziz Adam al-Hilu, which controls parts of Southern Blue Nile and Blue Nile provinces. It also included the civil democratic forces, referred to as Taqaddum, led by former prime minister Abdalla Hamdok.

Yet the war has morphed and parties have changed positions. And President Ruto himself has a long-time friendship with the RSF leader, something that could be a risk.

“Effective diplomacy requires a balance between personal rapport and institutionalised, principled foreign policy. Leaders must ensure that personal relationships complement, rather than replace, formal diplomatic processes that align with the broader national interest,” Dr Cavince Adhere, an international relations scholar who studies China-Africa relations, told The EastAfrican.
“By maintaining this balance, countries can build sustainable and mutually beneficial international relationships without compromising their sovereignty or strategic priorities and long-term national interest.”

Indeed, on Tuesday, Sudan accused Kenya of “an act of hostility” in hosting the RSF and allied groups. A spokesperson from the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Khartoum would seek avenues to address the matter. 

Kenya’s President, however, doesn’t need to be neutral in this conflict, some senior officials say.

“There is a direct impact on Kenya if this war goes on, so it matters for us. There is also a massive failure of all external peace processes on the conflict. It hasn’t worked. So, we are providing an opportunity for Sudanese themselves to get a solution,” said a senior diplomat in Nairobi, who asked not to be named to speak freely.

That position is controversial, as it is against the regional position adopted by the African Union for dialogue between RSF and SAF without outside interference, but now officials say the new RSF outfit won’t be closed to any group in Sudan. 

But the RSF and the SAF leaders have also been sanctioned by the US for genocide and other war crimes, making them a publicity problem for Nairobi. And Taqaddum has since splintered, with Hamdok walking away with one faction known as Civil Democratic Alliance for the Forces of the Revolution (Somod). 

Al-Hilu arrived in Nairobi this week to negotiate a role in the “government of peace and unity,” which the RSF is pushing, and which could include Umma Party. Sources told The EastAfrican that the original signing date on Monday was postponed twice as the sides haggled over roles, structure and transition period.

The other side of Taqaddum indicated they would be signing on the charter on Friday, signalling the divisions.  

The charter, says the new coalition, aims to “restore the legitimate government that was overthrown by remnants and militias of the Islamic Movement, and to reinstate the democratic path through a national consensus that includes all political, civil and social forces, laying the foundation for a new phase of stability and sustainable peace.” 

“We are going to unveil a new charter that will government the country as we await the enactment of a new constitution,” said RSF head of communication Muhammed Nizar.

Yet that may not be a guarantee. Alan Boswell, project director for the Horn of Africa at the Crisis Group, said things could get worse.

“Sudan’s war is pushing the country to the brink of dissolution,” he told The EastAfrican. “The creation of an RSF-aligned government pushes Sudan further down the path of Yemen or Libya. The country is also sinking deeper into a regional proxy war pitting the UAE (United Arab Emirates) against Egypt and others for influence over Sudan.” 

The UAE, accused of fanning the RSF, last week turned around and called for ceasefire. It organised a humanitarian pledging conference with Ethiopia and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), featuring UN chief Antonio Guterres and AU leaders. 

“Kenya continues to urge warring parties to recognise that military solutions if any do not bring sustainable peace,” Kenya’s President William Ruto told the conference, on the sidelines of the African Union summit.

“We encourage all Sudanese stakeholders to commit to a political solution through genuine dialogue.”

Some $216 million was raised, including $200 million from the UAE, which urged a “Ramadhan ceasefire.”

“We urge the warring parties to honour this sacred period by implementing a humanitarian ceasefire to ensure the safe, urgent, and unhindered access of essential humanitarian aid to those most in need, in particular women, children, and the elderly,” said Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan al-Nahyan, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. 

This gesture was unwelcome and the Sudan Sovereignty Council led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said it violated the country’s sovereignty.

That said more about suspicions that exist between Sudan and Kenya, and the UAE, than whether the gesture was well-intended. Gen Burhan had previously opposed Kenya’s role in mediation, accusing Ruto of bias. Kenya dismissed these claims, but then President Ruto rolled the red carpet and hosted Hemedti at State House, Nairobi.

The real problem, some analysts argue, is the see-saw in the war, with the warring factions hedging their contacts abroad to secure legitimacy.

“At the moment, there has been winds of change in favour of Burhan and his de facto government in Sudan. Since September last year, the SAF, the allied armed movements and militia of the former Bashir regime, have retained the initiative over Hemedti and his allies,” said Dr Jihad Mashamoun, a researcher on Middle East Politics at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter, UK.

“Some of Hemedti political allies want to create a government in order to give the RSF legitimacy and stake in the transition process that Burhan and his allies won't give them. If this pro-RSF government is created it will encourage regional and international powers to prolong the conflict in Sudan similar to what is happening in Libya and Yemen.”

It could be worse if the civilian movements don’t organise themselves democratically, as it could give the SAF an opportunity to discredit them.

Meanwhile, the UAE, working on the opposite ends of the Saudi-Egypt axis, may find it harder to expand global support for the pro-RSF. On Monday, Burhan downplayed the significance of the proposed parallel government, arguing that the move is already unpopular in the country.

“Anyone who wants to rule Sudan must first come to the country and fight alongside the Sudanese people to defeat the rebellion. There is no place for foreign agents among us anymore.”

Additional reporting by Mawahib Abdallatif