Uganda’s major dilemma on rebel battle in Congo

Ugandan army soldiers deployed in Mahagi last Saturday, a town of more than 150 kilometres north of Bunia on the Ugandan border. The Ugandan forces (UPDF) had previously deployed to Bunia, the capital of Ituri province in eastern DRC. They are now expanding their operational area.

This new deployment is different from Operation Shujaa, which was launched on November 30, 2021, involving the Ugandan and Congolese armies against the Ugandan Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels.

Currently, the Ugandan army has been deployed in an area where ADF extremists are not operating. The arrival of Ugandan troops in Mahagi at the end of last week was a signal on M23 war.

“The aim of the Ugandan army’s arrival is to protect the people. An agreement has been signed to extend the area of operations,” confirmed Lieutenant Jules Ngongo, spokesman for the Congolese army (Fardc) in Ituri.

On Tuesday, March 4, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni received Catholic priests and pastors of the Protestant Church of Congo to discuss peace in the DRC, and reassured them that “everything is being done in collaboration with the Kinshasa government.”

However, the Ugandan head of State had also warned long ago that the Ugandan army would not fight the M23. There was no clarity on what happens if the rebels escalate the violence, however.

“The border between the DRC and Uganda is our zone of influence. Nothing will happen there without our permission,” said General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Ugandan Chief of Defence Forces, who is also the son of President Museveni, on his personal X account.

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Last weekend, Gen Muhoozi announced a new Ugandan army operation in the DRC.

“Our new operation against Codeco in the DRC is called Operation Fred Rwigyema Gisa. We won’t let him down,” said Gen Muhoozi.

The UPDF Chief of Staff named this “new operation” after Fred Rwigyema, one of the founders of the Rwandan Patriotic Front rebellion launched from Uganda in 1990, who was killed at the very start of the rebellion.

“In the DRC, many fear a repeat of 2000, when the Ugandan and Rwandan armies fought in Kisangani, in northeastern Congo,” notes Nicaise Kibel Bel, an expert on military issues.

In 2022, the International Court of Justice even ordered Uganda to pay the DRC $325 million, including $225 million for damage to people, including loss of life, rape, recruitment of child soldiers and displacement of civilians, $40 million for damage to property and $60 million for damage to natural resources.

Mr Kibel added: “Uganda has always been with Rwanda against the DRC. But the interests of nations can evolve.”

He argued that beyond ideological or hegemonic positioning, Kampala has an interest in keeping conflicts at bay in the area where “the stakes are high: oil in the Semliki River, whose reserves are estimated at over 400 million barrels,” mainly in the Lake Albert area on the Ugandan side.

Read: DRC treads carefully not to antagonise Uganda

But despite these assurances, no one knows how the Ugandan army might behave if the M23 approaches. The Ituri area is particularly sensitive. It is a zone where there are also armed groups who fuel or profit from bloody conflicts between communities. Codeco and the Zaïre group control part of Ituri, particularly in the Djugu territory. As well as getting their hands on mining sites, these gangs also attack civilians. Codeco killed 80 civilians on the night of February 10-11. These incidents are almost routine in Djugu territory in Ituri.

According to the peacekeeping mission in the DRC (Monusco), this attack was part of “a long cycle of reprisals, since it followed an attack by the Zaire militia on February 9 in villages in the Djugu territory, which left five people dead”.

The killings perpetrated by Codeco irritate General Muhoozi, who has often made threats against this group.