CCM flag-bearer Samia off to early start but did she flout party rules?

Both were surprise appointees, handpicked by President Samia as CCM chairperson, and their elevation gave further credence to speculations that she was bent on forming her own campaign team of trusted lieutenants from within the party for the election.

Samia will be defending her incumbency through the ballot for the first time, having inherited the seat by constitutional decree after John Magufuli's death in 2021. She is eligible for at least one full five-year term in office up to 2030.

Compared with her predecessors, she has handled the job pretty well so far, but has also been under constant pressure to prove herself as not just an “accidental” president in the face of gender-based stereotyping and her Zanzibar roots, even from within the party.

Although CCM has a tradition of always endorsing sitting presidents for second terms, many of Samia's actions over the past year have appeared to reflect a sense of angst on her part as the October election approaches.

Particularly, the dismissal in July 2024 of Cabinet ministers January Makamba and Nape Nnauye, both of whom have strong influence within the party, was a major sign of her determination to crush potential challengers inside the party.

The two were part of a three-man CCM core team that orchestrated victories for Magufuli and preceding president Jakaya Kikwete in the 2015 and 2010 elections, respectively.

Less than a week after they were sacked, the party's then vice-chair Abdulrahman Kinana - the third member of that kingmakers squad - resigned somewhat abruptly.

The president was in no hurry to pick a replacement, and the position remained vacant for five months until she eventually settled on veteran CCM cadre Wasira as her new deputy and chief campaign coordinator.

Wasira turns 80 in July and has been in and out of the loop of top-level party affairs for more than half a century, making him an unexpected choice over touted candidates such as ex-prime minister Mizengo Pinda.

But Samia is counting on his vast experience in negotiating the factional politics of a party known for frequent in-fighting behind its veneer of secretiveness to get her across the line.

Caught off-guard

Delegates to the CCM assembly held on January 18 and 19 were caught off-guard when the president named Nchimbi, currently the party's secretary-general, as her running mate in place of current vice-president Philip Mpango.

Read: CCM picks veteran Wassira as deputy chair

She sprung the surprise during her speech closing the meeting, saying Mpango had asked "to be relieved of his duties for various reasons, none of them being work-related.”

“He (Mpango) told me that his mother lived to be 88 and he wants to surpass that age, but with all the work of being vice-president he can hardly see himself getting there,” Samia said.

Mpango, 67, was Magufuli's Finance minister until the president's demise, and initially showed reluctance when Samia picked him for the VP position on her ascendancy to the top seat.

Being a finance and economy technocrat with no political experience before joining Magufuli's Cabinet as a nominated MP, he has never looked entirely comfortable with being involved in CCM's often rough internal politicking, a necessity that comes with the role of No. 2.

On the other hand, Nchimbi's positioning as the country's next vice-president, in the likely event of Samia winning the election, has somewhat changed the dynamics of CCM's succession battle once her tenure ends in 2030.

At 53, he will have a big head-start over other future candidates for the top seat within the party, a prospect that political pundits believe should be enough to ensure his unwavering support of Samia's candidacy against potentially disruptive pre-election manoeuvres within the party.

Despite being named running mate, Nchimbi will continue in his role as secretary-general for the time being, while Mpango remains VP until the election.

For Nchimbi, the latest appointment is a turn-around in his own political fortunes after being side-lined by the party for several years as a consequence of openly supporting the late Edward Lowassa's failed bid to be CCM's candidate in the 2015 election.

Along with Adam Kimbisa and Sophia Simba, Nchimbi clashed publicly with CCM, which at the time was chaired by Kikwete, over Lowassa's shock exclusion from the final nomination list as the party chose to go with Magufuli instead.

After he took power, Magufuli packed Nchimbi off to Brazil and later Egypt as ambassador. Samia brought him back into the fold, appointing him to the top party executive position in January 2024.

Meanwhile, in what appeared to be a move aimed at killing off any chances of an internal challenge gathering steam in the remaining months leading up to October, the CCM meeting also passed a controversial resolution endorsing the Samia-Nchimbi ticket without going through proper procedures.

The move was not part of the original meeting agenda but initiated by several influential party members led by Kikwete. Critics have noted that it was the first time CCM has flouted its constitutional requirements for presidential candidates - including incumbents - to fill nomination forms for official approval.

This is normally been done three or four months to the election, never as early as January.

Tanzanian political commentator Luqman Maloto described the decision as "undemocratic" and set a bad precedent that CCM could come to regret in later years.

"As has happened this time, any future CCM president who fears internal opposition to being re-elected may decide to call a similar meeting and force through his or her candidature without adhering to the party's own constitution," Maloto pointed out.

Hussein Mwinyi was also endorsed to defend his Zanzibar presidency as CCM's candidate in the semi-autonomous archipelago.