Survey shows older voters in rural areas more likely to vote CCM while the younger demographic in urban areas were likely to support the oppositon.
CCM presidential candidate Dr John Magufuli would win the election by 65 per cent if the election were held today, a new poll by Twaweza East Africa suggests. His closest challenger would be Chadema flagbearer Edward Lowassa with 25 per cent.
In the poll, 66 per cent of respondents said they would vote for CCM while 22 per cent said they would vote for Chadema. Only 10 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for the other six presidential candidates or were undecided.
Presenting the findings in Dar es Salaam on Tuesday, Aidan Eyakuze, Twaweza East Africa Executive Director said that 98 per cent of the respondents said they had registered to vote and 99 per cent said they intended to vote. However, 57 per cent of the respondents were not aware that October 25, 2015 was the election date.
Asked why they would vote for Mr Magufuli or Mr Lowassa, 26 per cent said Mr Magufuli was hard working while 12 per cent of Mr Lowassa’s supporters said he would bring change.
Mr Eyakuze said the poll was conducted between the months of August and September.
The research - “Let the People Speak: Citizens’s views on political leadership” – was based on data from Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative high-frequency mobile survey.
The poll results further showed that voters who were older and lived in rural areas were slightly more likely to support the ruling party's candidate while the younger demographic residing in urban areas were likely to support Chadema's Lowassa.
Voter education
The respondents’ responses also indicated that there was little knowledge of whether the opposition coalition Ukawa was a registered political party that would appear on the ballot papers.
Nearly half of the respondents (49 per cent) said that Ukawa was a registered political party and 57 per cent of the respondents said the name ‘Ukawa’ would appear on the ballot papers.
“There is a lot of work to be done to tell Tanzanians that Ukawa as a name or party will not be on the ballot but partner parties will be on the ballot box,” Mr Eyakuze said while presenting the outcome.
“As a away forward, the challenge for Ukawa is to rollout public education to their supporters,” Ms Maria Sarungi, a commentator added.