Kenya is upending strategy and involvement in the Sudan peace process, adjusting to deflect pressure and criticism over hosting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Nairobi now says it was not for the parallel government when it allowed the RSF to gather in Kenya and sign a charter with allied armed and political groups.
The RSF and most of the groups left Nairobi on Wednesday after nearly 10 days of haggling over positions in the Sudan Foundation Alliance.
While political figures in the alliance have told the media they are ready to form a parallel government, The EastAfrican understands Nairobi is not endorsing the move. Kenya, instead, wants the group to front its position, demands or proposals to other players, including the junta.
Two diplomatic sources in Kenya indicated this position is not entirely new, but admitted the RSF Nairobi gathering gave the wrong impression.
“The idea of RSF and other groups agreeing to a political charter was to establish a starting point. We understand these groups aren’t the only stakeholders in Sudan,” an official familiar with the matter said.
“From the beginning, Kenya has been of the view that these movements are free to enter discussions with every other Sudanese.”
The apparent change of tack, however, came on the backdrop of pressure, warning that a parallel government could make it harder to achieve peace in Sudan.
The UN Security Council on Tuesday raised “grave concerns” about attempts to form a parallel government, saying it could lead to the break-up of Sudan.
But the 15-member UN council called on RSF and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) to cease hostilities and “engage, in good faith, in political dialogue and diplomatic efforts towards a durable ceasefire.”
The council said genuine national dialogue would lead to a free, fair and democratically elected national government “following civilian-led transitional, to realise the aspirations of the Sudanese”.
It also cautioned that such dialogue must be for all Sudanese. Nairobi banks on this latter part, as well as on apparent splits in the African Union (AU), to argue that the war has spawned atrocities from both factions and that no side can point the finger at the other.
The African Union has not issued a statement, although individual countries have.
Kenya says it is illogical for the military government under Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to insist on preconditions for dialogue. Burhan refers to the RSF as a rebel militia.
“The roadmap signed in Nairobi provides a framework for further negotiations, and it is our firm expectation that the signatories will engage with their fellow citizens and other parties to the conflict, ensuring that the interests of Sudanese are fully represented as they move forward,” Musalia Mudavadi, Kenya’s Prime Cabinet Secretary and CS for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs said last week.
“The steps are welcomed and encouraging in a journey towards the restoration of peace, stability and democratic governance in Sudan.”
The statement added that the peace roadmap signed in Nairobi is a testament to the willingness of the Sudanese political and civil society groups to prioritise the future of their country over divisions.
‘Sudan needs help’
Sudan had lobbied allies in the region and beyond to isolate the RSF. It got assurances against a parallel government from Uganda, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Russia and the United States.
These countries, however, did not side with the junta’s call to refuse talks with RSF.
The United States State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs said attempts to establish a parallel administration by the RSF are “unhelpful for peace and security in Sudan”.
“Efforts to create a parallel government undermine peace and security in Sudan, posing a significant risk of further instability and the potential de facto division of the country,” it said.
Some experts argue that Sudan needs help from the international community but there are risks if seen as taking sides.
“Any external involvement that supports one faction over the other could escalate the conflict, potentially destabilising not just Sudan but the broader region,” argued Esther Nyonje, a political risk analyst at Nawiri Strategies Consulting in Nairobi.
“In summary, Kenya’s assistance to the RSF in forming a coalition during Sudan’s military unrest could have significant implications on regional stability. The situation is highly complex, and any external intervention or support could lead to unintended consequences within Sudan and for Kenya’s broader international standing.”
The RSF and several Sudanese political groups and armed movements aligned with it endorsed the transitional charter in Nairobi on March 4, which, among other provisions, calls for a secular, federal state.
Jordan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Sufian Qudah, stressed the country’s support for initiatives aimed at achieving a peaceful resolution to Sudan’s crisis while preserving its security, stability, sovereignty and the welfare of its people.
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