Kenya, on the other hand, has maintained unchanged pump prices for four months in a row.
Border tensions involving Russia and Ukraine are sending oil market shocks in East Africa even as Russia President Vladimir Putin assured the world of no war, just mutual assurance of security.
Russia’s demands have been to ensure that negotiations that will assure Moscow that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) does not expand and recruit Ukraine as a new member.
For example, Uganda, which is recovering from a fuel crisis that hit the country six weeks ago, shortages of petroleum products and high fuel prices may persist on the back of international oil prices that continue to soar.
Kenya, on the other hand, has maintained unchanged pump prices for four months in a row, but industry experts argue that this will change amidst the impending Russia-Ukraine/Nato confrontation and dynamics in the sourcing of crude imports.
“It will surely disturb the flow of fuel, our imports and exports will be hurt,” said Paul Kurgat, a former Kenyan ambassador to Russia, now Deputy Head of Mission to Malaysia, explaining how a breakout of conflict could hurt the region.
All east African countries are net importers, and import all their oil products.
In January, motorists in Uganda saw a 50 percent fuel price surge, with a litre of petrol reaching Ush10,000 ($2.51) in some towns.
The price surge was a result of the gridlock created at the Malaba border post between Kenya and Uganda, with truck drivers protesting $30 Covid-19 mandatory test imposed by Uganda.
This week, motorists were being turned away at fuel stations that ran out of petrol.
In the last 10 days, market leaders Vivo Energy, which distributes Shell branded fuels, oils and lubricants, and TotalEnergies announced increases in pump prices, a move that other players have also followed, defying a directive of the Ministry of Energy issued last month, that a litre of fuel should not cost more than Ush5,000 ($1.25).
“The price has not come down to expectations,” said Frank Tukwasibwe, the Commissioner for Petroleum Supply in Uganda’s Ministry of Energy.
According to Boniface Kipchirchir, the head of operations at Stabex International Uganda, when Russia issued a number of demands to be met to lower tensions in Europe, there was a spike in oil prices.
Platts – the price benchmark for oil – rose from an average of $648 per metric tonne of crude in December 2021 to $820 metric tonne in February, which translates into an increase by over Ush600 (15 US cents) per litre, Mr Kipchirchir said.
This week, crude prices rose to nearly $100 a barrel, up from below $80 at the start of this year, and analysts predict that the price will soon hit $120 if Putin gives his forces the order to invade Ukraine.
“Russia is the major supplier of the Far East countries such as China, New Zealand and Australia among others,” said Mr Kipchirchir.
“The war is an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and other potential suppliers. Thus this increase in demand due to the crisis will affect East Africa and Africa, thus we expect the speculation to cause price increases,” he added.
Additional Reporting by Aggrey Mutambo