Rising meat demand and prices amid weakening feed and fodder systems
Sponsored by AU-IBAR
By David Maina Thuita and Sarah Ashanut Ossiya
The Subject of meat and its attendant discourses was brought to the fore by the Kenya Meat Expo 2024, the third episode of a growing initiative of Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development in collaboration with private sector and development partners.
Key among the recurring discussions are about the rapidly rising consumption of meat and meat products manifested in the rapidly growing demand as Kenya’s urban populations swell and the middle class expands. Paradoxically is a parallel narrative of rising meat prices, further emphasizing that meat for most Kenyans remains a highly desirable but luxury commodity, and the gap in meeting nutritional targets also prevails.
Feeding cost in livestock production constitutes over 70% of the total production cost. The recent drought, the unprecedented floods and the disruptions of global feed supply chains, have raised serious reflections on whether Kenya’s feed and fodder sector can sustainably support the livestock sector.
The unmet demand for meat in Kenya is estimated at 398,232 metric tons annually (ILRI, 2019). Eighty (80%) of the meat consumed in Kenya is produced by the pastoral communities in the ASAL areas which are home to 36% of the countries’ population. Livestock production is the most significant economic activity in the pastoral communities, constituting up to 95% of their household income.
According to a report presented by the President’s Economic Transformation Secretariat (PETS) showing the sources of livestock for meat by Counties, Turkana, Garissa and Mandera were the leading sources at 16.8%, 9.63% and 5.92% respectively, accounting for a third of the total volume of livestock sourced for slaughter, yet in a worrying coincidence, Mandera and Turkana were top among the counties that registered the highest numbers in livestock deaths during the 2021-2022 drought. Additionally, they rank top on the list of the Food Poverty Incidence level at 65% and 63.4% respectively. This raises an acute concern, as to why the most significant sources of meat in Kenya, have the weakest livestock feeding systems and are the most vulnerable to drought and related climatic externalities.
On one hand, there is a growing demand for meat and meat products with some studies projecting over 170% growth in demand in the next two decades, while on the other hand is an escalating level of vulnerability as witnessed in ASALs. According to the analysis presented by PETS, beef contributes 74% of all the meat consumed, with mutton and chevon having a market share of 4% and 22% respectively. Meat from ruminant livestock accounts for 75% of all meat consumed (excluding fish) with poultry, pork accounting for the remaining 25% (FAO, 2019).
Considering the significance of feeding cost in the livestock production economics, the rising consumption pattern should be a pointer to the country’s priority action if the economic targets across the meat supply chain, are to be met and sustained. Even more worrying is the long-term negative consequences of unmet nutritional targets which are evidenced by malnutrition and stunting especially in children. Kenya’s per capita consumption of meat falls 25% below the recommendation of World Health Organization which stands at 20kg.
These gaps underscore the huge opportunity to address upstream livestock feeding systems that can be achieved through deploying Kenya’s strengths including a robust private sector, a vibrant financial sector including the mobile money technologies, and a skilled workforce. End to end contracting in the feed and fodder supply chain needs to be embraced as a best practice, and mainstreaming secondary beef production in the place of emergency off-take approaches, will enhance confidence in and de-risk pastoral and other production systems. This, in effect, will stabilize downstream processing and marketing, and with increased efficiency, can better optimize meat prices making meat more affordable for the majority [of the population.
The winning formula globally for achieving human food and nutrition security is that sixty percent (60%) of all the grain produced is used as animal feed, and two-thirds of all land resources are managed for livestock production. Unless investments are made towards these thresholds, the country remains exposed to underperformance of the livestock sector which manifests in perennial incapacity to address food and nutrition security, vulnerability and instability of livestock systems with a cyclic loss of youth employment, and higher meat prices as some of the negative consequences.
The Kenya Meat Expo 2024, is yet another opportunity to reflect, re-strategize and resolve to build a robust livestock sector by fixing the feed and fodder sector first due to its strategic importance. This will call for a coordinated and sustained action from multiple actors aimed at transitioning the sector into an economic sector.
David Maina Thuita is the Feed and Fodder Business Development Expert and Dr. Sarah Ashanut Ossiya is the Team Leader, Resilient African Feed and Fodder Systems Project, African Union – InterAfrican Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR)
