By The East African

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The attempted ouster this past week of Dr Riek Machar from his perch atop the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) represents both his personal predicament and the fragile nature of the South Sudan peace process.

On August 4, ostensibly after a three-day meeting he was not part of, a section of the rebel movement’s armed wing announced Machar’s sacking. They accused their political head of deviating from the movement’s vision and failing to represent its interests in the transitional government.

Although Machar’s allies were quick to rally and denounce the coup plotters, the development is instructive. It highlights the subterranean fissures between the SPLM-IO’s political leaders and its armed wing. That might not be quite new since, in reality, Machar was simply adopted by the men in uniform and has never had firm control over them.

More fundamentally, however, the attempted coup represents the rising frustration in the South Sudanese society with the failure by both President Kiir and Machar to deliver a meaningful dividend from the 2018 peace accords.

The see-saw between progress and backtracking is becoming unbearable and the principals need to make visible movement in a direction that reflects positive change beyond mere sharing of positions.

Inclusivity needs to be defined in terms that go beyond ethnic accommodation, to restructuring the state to deliver on the social contract.

South Sudan is still deep in corruption and a contestation over who controls the jackpot of revenues from sales of crude oil. This only serves to perpetuate mutual suspicion and places a drag on key processes such as disarmament, resettlement and a sensible regimentation of the national army.

The country also needs to retrace its steps backward to start implementing the post-2011 agenda of writing a national constitution. For this to succeed, the incumbents need to avoid any moves that cast either party as seeking undue advantage in the post-transitional order.

President Kiir and his co-principal Machar also need to come to terms with the possibility that none of them enjoys credibility across the political divide to be trusted with taking the country to the next level.

Both are associated with the legacy issues of ethnicity and the catalogue of missteps that have plunged South Sudan into its seemingly unfathomable political crisis. Both are the faces of the legacy of injustice that continues to plague South Sudan today.

With access to economic power at the subconscious level of the present crisis, a first step might be for the liberation leaders to put the economy in the hands of a new cadre of South Sudanese who share a new vision of the future and can make rational decisions about the allocation of resources.

The attempt to fire Machar should be seen as a wakeup call. Similar tensions exist within the SPLM mainstream. What must be avoided is a situation where, in the face of an existential crisis, an embattled Kiir and Machar find unity of purpose against the broader interests of South Sudan.