Congo’s President Joseph Kabila is fresh off a regional victory tour that culminated on the December 12 with the signing of the Nairobi Declaration between Congo, the M23 rebel group, and representatives of the ICGLR and SADC.

However, uncertainty hangs over the ability of the signatories to monitor and implement the agreement.

Critical questions remain about the fate of senior M23 leaders, the disarmament and demobilisation of rank and file M23 troops, and the connections the rebel group has to the Rwandan and Ugandan government.  One thing is for certain — despite any temporary or rhetorical victory, peace is far from secured in Congo.

Leaders from the ICGLR and SADC will need to continue to work closely with the governments of Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, and representatives from the M23 to oversee progress on a vital set of issues negotiated through the Kampala peace process, which resulted in the Nairobi Declarations.

The same parties must then facilitate broader regional talks through the nascent UN Peace, Security and Co-operation Framework for Congo and the region, or UN PSCF, to address the core drivers of conflict in the region.

Leaders will need to grapple with such thorny issues as agreements on the elimination of armed groups and respect for national sovereignty, refugee repatriation, land rights and natural resource management, civilian protection, and security sector reform within Congo.

Nonetheless, recent gains in eastern Congo have brought renewed hope for peace and economic development:

• The fall of the M23 and conclusion of the Kampala process have created a new momentum, and local and international leaders are demonstrating a degree of political will for reform in the region not seen in more than a decade.
• A strong team of special envoys from the UN, US, EU, and AU are driving diplomatic processes towards peace in the Great Lakes in ways that were not possible a year ago. Many armed groups in eastern Congo are interested in demobilising after the military surge led by troops from the Force Intervention Brigade.
• Rwandan support for proxy groups in eastern Congo seems to have waned, perhaps due to diplomatic advances by the UN, US, EU, AU and the World Bank.
• The World Bank has pledged to release a $1 billion package to stimulate development and revitalise economic growth in the Great Lakes region. The package targets projects in energy, roads, agriculture, cross-border trade, health, and job creation to spur peace through economic development among regional actors that have eyed each other with suspicion.
• The government of Congo is beginning to gradually increase rule of law and security sector reform in the east while reclaiming territory previously held by rebel groups.
• Major mining areas in the Great Lakes region are beginning to increase production and are moving towards certifying mines and material as conflict-free under the ICGLR Regional Certification Mechanism, attracting renewed international investment and access to global markets.
• The UN peacekeeping mission to Congo, Monusco, is deploying unarmed surveillance drones to monitor contentious border areas between Congo and Rwanda and the movements of various armed groups.

Despite these gains however, major obstacles could easily derail the tenuous progress towards peace, stability, and economic growth. Nowhere were obstacles more apparent than in the dysfunction of the Kampala peace process between the Congolese government and M23.

Despite nearly a year of negotiations led the Ugandans on behalf of the ICGLR, no peace agreement was signed between the two parties.

Rather, each party signed a declaration of statement to the ICGLR and SADC that ultimately legitimized the M23 mutiny through conceding amnesty and reintegration into the Congolese army for M23 rank-and-file, and space for political representation for the group’s leaders within the Congolese government.

Further, Rwanda, a country that is inextricably linked to the conflict in eastern Congo — and will ultimately benefit from the concessions — was never overtly present at the talks in Kampala despite its clear stake in the outcome of any agreement.

The result is that, regardless of the recent declarations from Congo and M23, the fate of M23’s top leadership is uncertain. Questions surrounding M23 amnesty, disarmament and vetted reintegration into the Congolese armed forces have not been fully resolved. And, thousands of refugees in Congo and Rwanda continue to live in precarious conditions.

In the wake of the Nairobi Declaration, regional leaders must capitalise on the recent gains, move beyond the dysfunction of the Kampala process and begin to negotiate agreements on core issues involving broader regional peace, political stability, and economic growth.

Aaron Hall is a field consultant with Enough Project on the conflict in eastern Congo.