Al Shabaab shows potent threat after targeting convoy

The attack at Eel-Gaab junction was less than a kilometre from the president’s office, when President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates placed a call to President Mohamud to check on his health.

“In his conversation, he (Emirati President) wished the President well, reiterating his condemnation of all forms of violence, terrorism and hatred,” said a dispatch from Villa Somalia which also confirmed that the attack had targeted his convoy.

Photos shared on social media showed a badly damaged armoured car with scant detail on casualties. Al-Shabaab promptly took responsibility of the attack which was timed with President Mohamud’s departure to visit troops on the battlefield.

Yet, overall, Somalia’s war on al-Shabaab, which had seen vigilantes team up with Somali National Army troops, has faced challenges. In the weeks preceding this week’s incident, rumours of al-Shabaab retaking towns near Mogadishu swirled. And officials rebutted them.

“This is a propaganda and anybody circulating this notion will be held accountable,” Omar Ali Abdi, Somali State Minister Defence, told the BBC.

Some analysts like Mahad Nur, a political commentator in Mogadishu, however, argued that the minister had helped the rumours become believable.

“The minister’s remarks actually widened the possibilities that Mogadishu and Somalia as a whole are vulnerable to terror he told The EastAfrican.

After the attempt on the convoy, National Security Advisor to Villa Somalia, Hussein Sheikh-Ali initially refuted the claim the President had been targeted.

Read: Somali militants target presidential convoy in bomb attack, president safe

“Somali President is in a good state, conducting the visit to oversee the holy campaign by the Somali National Army that is wholeheartedly supported by the people in those areas.

“No amount of cowardly action, boosted by misinformation, can threaten this nation.”

The trip was important because the troops on the frontline in Aden Yabal district in the Middle Shabelle region, Hirshabelle State, has been an epicentre of conquests by the Somali forces, and retakes from the Shabaabs.

But it also came as Western embassies warned of imminent attacks in Mogadishu. Earlier in March, the United States Embassy issued security alert, warning of possible attacks against multiple locations in Somalia including Mogadishu’s Aden Adde International Airport.

“They (al-Shabaab) may conduct attacks with little or no warning, targeting airports and seaports, checkpoints, government buildings, hotels, restaurants, shopping areas, and other areas where large crowds gather and Westerners frequent, as well as government, military, and Western convoys,” the embassy stated.

Just three days later, President Mohamud spoke to a congregation at a mosque inside Villa Somalia, dismissing the threat.

There has been a general worry in Somalia that al-Shabaab could mimic the Taliban who retook Afghanistan after American troops and allies left the country in 2021. Recently, militants retook Syria after Basha al-Assad left.

For Somalia, the weakness is in the transitions by the African Union forces to a new mandate, which also saw Burundians depart the mission in December.

Mohamud asked the worshippers to ignore the rumours of such happening.

“Security is better than ever,” said Mohamud even though some airlines announced suspension of flights as the situation became uncertain.

Later, a massive attack on Balad town, 30 km north of Mogadishu, accentuated by Al-Shabaab fighters occupying the town hall and even recording militants in the district commissioner’s chamber, added to the growing vulnerabilities.

Within a few days, videos were circulated showing Al-Shabaab operatives moving about in Afgoye town, 30 km southwest of the Somali capital.

Reports of Al-Shabaab militants gathering strength around Mogadishu peaked when, last Saturday, they attacked an army security post, causing significant casualties in the early morning raid in Hawa Abdi Area, a settlement about 20 km south of the Somali capital.

Apart from Mogadishu’s port and seaport, areas indicated as possible terror targets included top hotels such as Elite, Jazeera and Afrik as well as the popular leisure area, Lido beach, and several important security checkpoints, warned the US embassy.

After the convoy attack most western missions, as well as the African Union “strongly condemned the deadly explosion.” It later emerged that four people had died, including prominent Somali journalist Mohamed Abukar Dabbaashe.

Somalia has over the past days taken steps to boost the anti-terrorist operation so far performed by Somali National Army, supported by local community volunteers known as Macawisleey (vigilantes wearing wrap-around garments).

Units of Somali Police Force and Somali Custodial Corps, traditionally engaged to keep public order, were dispatched on Tuesday and Monday respectively to Middle Shabelle region where Al-Shabaab are stronger.

Many Somali commentators are not surprised by Al-Shabaab’s strong showing in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle, however, the two regions immediately neighbouring Mogadishu to the north and south.

Read: Shabaab gunmen attack hotel in central Somalia

They assume that the group benefited from a long lull that followed the anti-terror war’s ‘First Phase’ (2022-2023) when enormous damage was inflicted on Al-Shabaab in Central Somalia.

The extremists took chance to regroup, becoming aggressive while the Somali leaders got entangled in squabbles over controversial constitutional and political issues.

Rashid Abdi, a Kenyan security analyst, predicts the worst thing to happen, if Somalia security is not improved.

“The militant Al-Shabaab group has in the last 48 hrs consolidated its march towards Mogadishu and overrun multiple villages and towns surrounding the city,” he commented on Thursday.

He proposes a nationwide consultation to save the country from terror victory, suggesting maximum collaboration between different levels of government.

Another concerned citizen, Ayub Abdirizak, reports of Al-Shabaab militants openly erecting a checkpoint to collect ‘illegal tax’ from motorists between Mogadishu and Afgoye town, supported by display of photos. They had extorted people before but had been overrun from these routes. Such blockades can imply a resurgence.