A parody circulating on social media among President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee party supporters mourns that the president has been reduced to an opposition leader leaving nothing to chance on the campaign trail, while Nasa candidate Raila Odinga makes the headlines from calculated media appearances and statements.

The apparent reversal of roles is born out of frustrations that while the opposition has had a clear game plan — push for reforms, litigation and street protests — the governing party has not been proactive enough and has been playing catch up on an agenda scripted by the opposition.

Yet discussions with insiders and strategists suggest Jubilee is happy to play along in this dovish role in the hope that it will endear its presidential candidate to the electorate come the October 26 repeat election ordered by the Supreme Court.

The party also hopes that this will score it crucial points on the diplomatic front with the international community expected to play the arbiter should the stalemate on whether to hold the fresh poll escalates to levels that threaten Kenya’s and the region’s stability.

READ: Diplomats in efforts to unlock Kenya's political impasse

“They look more statesmanlike by respecting institutions like the Supreme Court and the electoral body even when decisions go against their wishes,” said Michael Chege, a consultant on development issues.

The grounds for this approach were laid at a meeting of party followers and leaders held at the Sagana State Lodge in central Kenya soon after the initial period of annoyance with the Supreme Court evident in the criminal epithets the President and the deputy threw at the judges.

Three-phase strategy

At the meeting, the game around the repeat election was agreed on and was to be played in three phases.

The first, the source of the parody, was that Jubilee would go out to win the election at whatever cost. This explains the campaigns especially in swing areas where Jubilee’s improvement in presidential votes won and number of seats garnered are still the subject of debate.

In these areas of Western Kenya (Bungoma and Busia), lower Nyanza (Kisii and Nyamira), Coast (Mombasa and Kwale), Kajiado and Narok in the Rift Valley the President and his deputy William Ruto would drive the campaigns through public rallies and closed door meetings with local leaders.

These have been marked by defections of politicians who previously identified with Nasa but the jury will pass a verdict on their influence at the grassroots after the election.

In party strongholds, the meeting resolved that elected leaders led by governors would drive the mobilisation of voters to turn out in large numbers on Election Day.

Committees of 17 campaign movers from each county were formed and presented to the party secretariat where they report on their activities on a weekly basis. With governors leading the teams, the meeting resolved it was essential for dissenters to be brought on board with the promise of future state largesse.

In this subset falls the closing of ranks by bitter political rivals like in Meru, Embu who have pledged to join hands for President Kenyatta’s re-election.

A third facet for winning the poll has been rendering unequivocal support to the IEBC to conduct the election in the face of body blows from Nasa on the electoral agency’s composition and credibility. When deputy President visited the IEBC two weeks ago he reinforced this, saying Jubilee had no conditions for the conduct of the poll and was ready to run with the arrangements put in place.

Jubilee’s dovish stance, however, flies in the face when the second phase of play comes into view. Using its numbers in Parliament, the party resolved to push through amendments to electoral laws that hold hamstring the Supreme Court were a petition on the outcome of the October 26 election brought before it.

In the majority decision, the judges annulled the election for illegalities and irregularities and warned that they would not hesitate to invalidate the presidential elections again if similar lapses were presented. This laid the foundation for the controversial amendments to Elections Act and the Elections Offences Act.

In a nutshell, the changes that passed in Parliament last week and are waiting for presidential assent to become law seek to seal the loopholes exploited to annul the election or gaps that would allow the opposition to delay the election any further.

Poll changes

Among the key changes are assigning criminal liability for presiding and returning officers who mishandle election materials, making results transmitted electronically secondary to the ones announced at the polling station, declaring the remaining candidate the winner if rivals pull out and  allowing the deputy IEBC chairperson to declare the winner of a presidential election if the chairman is not available.

At the heart of the changes were suspicions by Jubilee that some elections officials were compromised so as not to process forms as is required to give grounds for the petition and angst that the election was annulled on technicalities.

Other concerns were that having an IEBC with no contingency plan at the top was foolhardy and that elections could be jeopardised in cases where rivals just pulled out as Mr Odinga has threatened to until grievances are addressed.

Under the existing law a withdrawal or death would necessitate rewinding the election cycle to zero. While the laws received broad support for being well intentioned, questions about timing and their passage without the participation of opposition legislators who are boycotting House business have undermined their force with President Kenyatta understood to be having second thoughts on assenting to them.

As we went to press a meeting of Jubilee legal and strategy advisors was expected to chart the way forward on the changes. The proposals were later presented to the president who has 14 days to make a decision.

“Jubilee should be advised that the laws will hurt them as a win reinforced by the changes will leave them vulnerable in the court of public opinion,” said Prof Chege.

Post-win housekeeping

Until the meeting on the changes was called, party insiders were confident President Kenyatta would assent to the laws.

The party also anticipated that Nasa or any aggrieved citizen would go to court to challenge their validity and application in the October 26 election. Insiders said the party would react to this based on the court ruling, which would usher in the third phase — post-win housekeeping.

“They are betting that Nasa is going nowhere based on four factors: Resources, control of seats, defections and incumbency,” said Julius Kuria, an advocate and a political commentator, on why Jubilee was taking the win as a foregone conclusion.

“We will revisit,” the ominous words uttered by President Kenyatta in a fit of anger after the Supreme Court decision now come into play. Although Deputy President Ruto explained the words as expressing a desire to seek a recount of the August 8 presidential votes once the repeat election is done, talk is rife of a purge in the judiciary and other institutions that may be perceived as having played a partisan role during the electioneering period.

“Expect surgery of the Judiciary deeper than Ringera’s (in reference to the 2003 vetting of judges by a commission chaired by Justice Aaron Ringera),” one party insider said on condition of anonymity.

This means allegations made of unethical contacts between senior figures in the opposition and judges which were quickly passed as propaganda have stuck with Jubilee. But like with all good plans, it takes an unforeseen to prop them up or bring them tumbling down.

Jubilee has already received a good omen from the High Court decision that other candidates can participate in the scheduled election besides President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga.

This means there would be an election even if Mr Odinga made good of his rallying cry: No reforms, no elections.

However, if President Kenyatta won against fringe candidates by virtue of the main challenger keeping off the fray, his victory would be soiled by the loss of legitimacy at home and abroad; plunging the country into instability.