By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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The EastAfrican reports that noises about tinkering with term limits are refusing to die down.

It noted that “the wave of electoral law changes sweeping across East Africa and meant to favour incumbents appears to be gathering speed in Tanzania”, and that “Chemba MP Juma Nkamia is next month expected to table a motion before Parliament to extend presidential terms from five to seven years, as is the case in Rwanda”.

The story came as ruling NRM party in Uganda, wielded their majority to vote through a constitution amendment deleting the 75-year age limit for president, allowing Yoweri Museveni, already in power for 31 years, to run again, again and again.

Barely half-way into his first term, some of Tanzania President John Magufuli’s most fervent supporters in recent months have been targeting the country’s two-term limit for president.

Two months ago, crisis-riddled Burundi’s cabinet approved a constitutional change that would allow President Pierre Nkurunziza to stay in office until 2034.

Interestingly, 2034 will be the year that Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will also be ending his presidency, after a constitution change opened the door for him to run for a third term. (His current term ends in 2024, after which he would be eligible for two five-year terms).

South Sudan is, well, a lost cause.

Though in Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta’s critics say he is harbouring third term ambitions, no insider in his camp has openly hinted at the possibility.

With Tanzania, the popular view is that the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is too strong and historical a party to cave in to Magufuli’s supporters’ appetite for a third-term.

Imperial presidency

Maybe not. If the imperial presidency project in East Africa has taught us anything, it is that often the most important step is broaching the subject.

Once a loud-mouthed party official, or even a clown in the city market, utters the words “the country still needs the president, we should abolish the term limit” and gets into the media, it is done. From then, the job is to normalise the idea, and all it takes is enough people to repeat it.

It is a lesson that boys with political ambition learn in high school. During school balls, there are always the very posh girls whom most lads avoid asking for a dance, fearing they will be rejected because they are not fashionable enough and aren’t wearing expensive cologne.

But then a scruffy fellow, having found courage from a shot of gin, will amble up to the posh girl and ask her for a dance without fear. And lo and behold, to everyone’s surprise, she will say yes. This term limit thing is a little like that.

So Tanzania, watch out.

Extended presidential rule

But perhaps the really bad news for term limits, is that there is a convergence toward extended presidential rule.

From Tanzania all the way to Egypt, on this side of the continent there is no democracy outlier, in the sense of a country that is dramatically expanding political space and other freedoms.

The only near-exceptions are the most unlikely candidates — the autonomous territories of Somaliland and Puntland. But they are too fragile, and could very easily be consumed by the many crises in the Horn of Africa.

This is a good time to be a strongman and aspiring dictator in eastern Africa.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is publisher of data visualiser Africapaedia and Rogue Chiefs. Twitter@cobbo3