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2018 was big for tech innovations. Here are the predictions for 2019...

Friday January 18 2019
ai

A signage of Artificial Intelligence at the stand of Xiaomi at the December 7, 2018 China Mobile Global Partner Conference in Guangzhou. In 2019, companies are likely to accelerate their usage of cloud-based AI software and services. PHOTO | LI ZHIHAO

By PATRICK ADENGO

Every year new technologies are launched; existing technologies get smarter and savvier and more available in the market.

This will continue to happen at a rapid pace as technologies evolve. Just as 2018 was a big year for innovation in technology, that trend is expected to continue in 2019.

  • Artificial intelligence

Companies will accelerate their usage of cloud-based artificial intelligence software and services. Among companies that adopt AI technology, 70 per cent will obtain AI capabilities through cloud-based enterprise software, and 65 per cent will create AI applications using cloud-based development services and technology.

  • Smart speakers

Smart speakers — Internet connected speakers with integrated digital voice assistants and audio will be a new trend this year, where you ask the device many questions (things to do, recipes, the current time, restaurant location, etc) and order things in seconds. Voice and audio will be the next disruptor in this space.

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  • Blockchain comeback

Last year was a terrible one for blockchain, but 2019 will see new applications and possibly a breakout company or two offering more digital currency solutions through blockchain platforms.

  • Quantum computers

The predictions about quantum computers (QCs) for 2019 and beyond are not one, but four:

Quantum computers will not replace classical computers for decades, if ever. It is expected that 2019 or 2020 will see the first ever proven example of “quantum supremacy,” sometimes known as “quantum superiority” — a case where a quantum computer will be able to perform a certain task that no classical (traditional transistor-based digital) computer can solve in a practical amount of time or using a practical amount of resources.

But while this will indeed be an important milestone, the term “supremacy” may mislead. Yes, there will be certain useful and important computational problems that will be better solved by QCs, but that does not mean that QCs will be superior for all, most, or even 10 per cent of the world’s computing tasks.

The quantum computer market of the future will be about the size of today’s supercomputer market — around $50 billion. In contrast, the market for classical computing devices (ranging from consumer smartphones up to enterprise supercomputers) is expected to be worth over $1 trillion in 2019.

Even in 2030, none of the billions of smartphones, computers, tablets and lower level enterprise computing devices in use will be quantum-powered, although they may sometimes or even often use quantum computing via the cloud.

The first commercial general-purpose quantum computers will appear in the 2030s at earliest. The 2020s will be a time of progress in quantum computing, but the 2030s are the most likely decade for the larger market to develop.

The quantum-safe security industry is also likely to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars per year in the 2020s. One area in which large QCs will almost certainly deliver an exponential speedup is security and cryptography. A technique called Shor’s algorithm is known (when executed by a sufficiently large quantum computer) to be able to break many current public key cryptosystems, such as RSA (Rivest–Shamir–Adleman) and ECC (Elliptic-curve cryptography).

Enterprises and governments should start protecting against the threat of powerful QCs today, not when it happens, since by then it will be too late.

Although quantum supremacy will mark a conceptual turning point for 2019, the reality is that QCs will not be ready for the commercial market any time soon.

  • Upgraded cybersecurity

The technology world is focusing on cybersecurity and keeping up with adversaries by using machine learning and artificial intelligence to predict and protect against attacks. As these technologies learn and improve there will be much quicker, less costly responses to adversarial attacks.

  • Augmented reality of apps

Augmented reality has already hit the market and is available with mobile devices. Initially hitting mobile devices as games and fun activities, we will see continued growth in 2019, bringing it into practical everyday utilisation. As developers become more comfortable with the technical functions and allow their creativity to show, it will become integrated into most apps in the marketplace.

  • Higher e-commerce sales

We are going to see a continued rise in people purchasing everyday consumables online. Things like clothing apparel, electronics, cars, foods and beverages — all the things that would normally classify as an “errand” and a trip to the store will see a boost in online purchases.

  • Digital solar power hubs

We will see an increase in digital solar power hubs that have been designed to provide affordable solar energy that can power a variety of AC and DC electronics including lights, TVs, radios, fans, computers, medical devices and more using mobile payment functionality.

Additionally, digital financial services, that is, the use of mobile technology for payment functions will evolve to offering a wider range of financial and non-financial services — including digital savings, digital loans, digital insurance, digital retail payments, benefit transfers, digital tax payments, digital water, digital health or digital education or agriculture.

While there is continuity, the changes — often rapid changes — forecast for this year, are new, important, and usually counter-consensus. Organisations should understand and account for the emerging technologies as they evolve. I think this will matter in other industries as well, and they are important within East Africa and other markets globally.

Patrick O. Adengo is the managing director at Stalworth Consulting Group, LLC, a management and strategy consulting firm focused on digital strategy, emerging technology advisory and inclusive financial services.

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