Rwanda’s dominant ruling party has started laying the groundwork to mobilise citizens countrywide to demand a third term for President Paul Kagame; his term in office expires in 2017.

In recent weeks, senior officials have openly called for a third term, with the apparent tacit permission of the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front — Inkotanyi (RPF) party.

Francis Karemera, a senior RPF member who has, for a long time, been reported to be part of a team of party cadres tasked by Mr Kagame in 2013 to find a formula to manage the transition after 2017, told The EastAfrican last week that the matter was in the hands of Rwandans.

“There are two sides of the coin. One side is of Rwandans who will say we want President Kagame to remain and lead us, and the other side is of President Kagame who will solely decide whether he will respect the demands of the people or step down,” Dr Karemera told The EastAfrican.

“There is no team put together to decide the fate of Rwandans. These reports of a team to find a formula for 2017 have not been true.”

A retired colonel, who has also served as a minister and as a senator, Dr Karemera said President Kagame, who is the RPF chairman, only gave party leaders “homework” to think about.

Sources who attended the RPF National Executive Committee meeting on February 8, 2013, said Mr Kagame tasked Dr Karemera, Tito Rutaremara and Antoine Mugesera, among others, to develop a formula to ensure “change, continuity and stability” after 2017, when his constitutional term as president expires.

It now appears that consensus will be generated from the public, possibly culminating in a referendum on the matter. The ruling party remains tight-lipped on its decision regarding 2017, but senior party officials, through opinions and commentaries penned in the media and radio talk shows, are increasingly calling on President Kagame to run for a third term.

On February 9, pro-government daily The New Times published an op-ed by Dr Karemera that sparked animated debate online between readers supporting the idea of Mr Kagame staying on, and another urging for the constitutional term limits being maintained.

Many readers and observers saw Dr Karemera’s article, A great leader with a great track record: A recollection, as reflecting the mainstream view in the RPF, given his influence in the party and high standing in the country’s politics.

In a lengthy piece recalling the Rwandan leader’s legacy and achievements, Dr Karemera summed it up by asking whether it was time for President Kagame to leave.

“While Rwanda has registered remarkable success, there are still looming threats and vulnerabilities,” Dr Karemera wrote.

“So is it time for H.E. Paul Kagame to leave office come 2017? The answer is no. It is important to remember that Rwanda has had unique problems, including decades of misrule, destruction and division that ended in the Genocide against the Tutsi.

“We cannot afford to mess around with achievements we have made under Kagame’s leadership. If we have to overcome the threats and vulnerabilities and strongly position our country in the current globalised environment, we need the continued visionary leadership of President Kagame,” he concluded.

Change of tactics

According to reliable insider sources, the ruling party has changed strategy, leaving the decision of Mr Kagame’s post-2017 role entirely to citizens, with RPF playing a detached role in the process to call for a constitutional amendment and a possible referendum on the matter.

“It is now no longer a matter of the party but the citizens. Whatever happens in 2017 will be led by the people themselves and not the party’s drive,” a senior party leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, told The EastAfrican.

Other party sources said this change in strategy could explain why the role of senior party officials in identifying a transition formula for 2017 could have been quietly shelved.

This newspaper also understands that a new body, the Rwanda Elders Advisory Council, created by the Cabinet last week, will play an active role in deciding the fate of the country in 2017.

The Council is officially described as an autonomous institution whose mission is to “advise the government on national topical issues, national political orientation and challenges pertaining to good governance, justice, economy and social welfare.” The Council is expected to advise on the management of the political transition.

Dr Karemera and former senator Antoine Mugesera, who were said to be on the 2017 transitional committee, have all been named to the Council, along with former Deputy Speaker of the Lower Chamber of Deputies Denis Polisi, also a senior RPF member.

Sheikh Abdul Karim Harerimana, a renowned RPF member and mobiliser who recently resigned from the East African Legislative Assembly, is also a member, as is Marie Mukantabana, a senior member of RPF’s Women’s League.

The Council’s head, Augustin Iyamuremye, and member Senator Agnes Mukabaranga are the only non-RPF cardholders.

President Kagame, serving the last of his two elected terms during which he has emphasised respect for the rules, is under pressure to respect the Constitution and retire at the end of his term, while supporters want him to follow the trend of many African leaders and change the rules to stay on.

The incumbent has not openly expressed desire to stay on but as calls for him to remain in office gain momentum, there is little or no opposition with elections only two years away.

Opposition in and outside Rwanda remains weak, with its leaders either in jail, in exile, or in alliance with the ruling RPF. Only the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda has announced that it will not supporting amending the Constitution to allow the incumbent stay in office.

The opposition in exile remains divided, with efforts to form a coalition unsuccessful thus far.

Exiled politician Paul Rusesabagina, whose character features in the highly controversial movie Hotel Rwanda, this week spoke out against plans to change the Constitution and called for the opening of political space and respect for human rights, including the freedom of expression and the media. Kigali accuses the philanthropist-cum-politician of having links to negative groups planning to destabilise the country.

Rwanda National Congress, the other credible opposition group, has, in recent days, been reportedly weakened by internal wrangles.

With little or no opposition, political analysts say RPF’s quest for a third term in office for President Kagame will most likely be met without notable resistance.