By EMMANUEL ONYANGO

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The surprise return of ex-prime minister Edward Lowassa to the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi after a failed stint in the opposition may have further tilted Tanzania’s political landscape firmly in favour of President John Magufuli who will be running for a second term in office during next year’s general election.

Mr Lowassa finished second to President Magufuli in the 2015 election as the preferred candidate of a powerful opposition coalition, having defected from CCM after his name was dropped from the party’s list of presidential aspirants in the run-up to the election.

Despite concerted, state-orchestrated efforts to cut the opposition down to size ever since, he has retained a strong support base among Tanzanians discontented with the president’s leadership style, particularly the political and business establishment, who have felt the pain of his austerity and anti-graft measures.

This was seen as an indication that Mr Lowassa still nursed ambitions to once again challenge Mr Magufuli for the presidency in 2020. But then he returned “home” to CCM at a crucial stage when the race to Ikulu is just beginning.

Mr Lowassa has chosen to keep his cards close to his chest regarding his game plan after the March 1 move.

The consensus among pundits is that the ex-premier is now a spent force with more interest in protecting his business and investment interests than aspiring for high office.

Campaigns for the election scheduled for October 2020 are already well underway, despite the National Elections Act allowing such campaigns to begin not more than three months before the polls — or right after each participating party has registered its nominated candidate with the electoral authority.

The Economist Intelligence Unit, a UK-based international think-tank, predicts a Magufuli re-election with big CCM victories in the parliamentary polls, which would allow the country to remain broadly stable for more years.

Part of the reasoning is that despite periods of uncertainty, CCM has managed to maintain its supremacy since the introduction of political pluralism in the early 1990s.

No Tanzanian leader running on the party’s ticket has ever failed to complete two full terms of five years each, as stipulated in the Constitution.

Nothing on the ground appears to suggest that this tradition is about to change going into the 2020 elections.

Although President Magufuli appeared to add teeth to the Elections Act’s campaign period restrictions by imposing his own ban on political rallies in general before election time way in June 2016, he has allowed himself to become the focal point of an ongoing CCM campaign to publicly reiterate its commitment to fulfilling promises made to the electorate during the 2015 campaign.

On the other hand, a well-oiled state machinery appears intent on shutting down, both openly and subtly, all avenues for the opposition to mount a credible challenge against Magufuli for the presidency.

Legislator Tundu Lissu inadvertently became perhaps President Magufuli's main threat to retaining the presidency after he survived a mysterious assassination attempt in September 2017.

Mr Lissu is presently nearing the end of a prolonged period of medical treatment abroad for the multiple gunshot wounds he sustained.