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With little opposition, Kagame to win in 2017

Saturday June 18 2016
green party

Leader of the Green Party Frank Habineza with his lawyer Antoinette Mukamusoni in Rwanda’s Supreme Court on October 8, 2015 after losing a case to challenge plans to change the constitution. PHOTO | CYRIL NDEGEYA |

As Rwanda prepares for the 2017 presidential election, there is little political activity on the ground.

President Paul Kagame and his ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF)-Inkotanyi party are expected to win another term in office as opposition voices are limited, with only one recognised opposition party, the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR). Others are in exile.

With just over a year to the elections, the government maintains that the allegations of rights abuses and intolerance to dissent are unfounded. Appearing on Al Jazeera’s Upfront show which aired on June 10, the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Government spokesperson Louise Mushikiwabo said the criticism levelled against Rwanda by rights groups is mainly unfounded and does not take into account the country’s way of doing things.

“Everybody knows Rwanda’s history, the genocide, the recovery, but we have made some choices as a nation and as a country that are not typical, which fit our own desires that we have for our country,” Ms Mushikiwabo said, adding that Rwanda has deliberately opted for consensual rather than confrontational politics.

“When there is no confrontation or big fights in politics, there are critics who think that there is repression and people cannot speak out; but those were really our choices from the beginning,” she said.

Rwanda remains in the spotlight for allegedly crushing opposition voices, which has left the government with few critics. With the election nearing, the lack of opposition is seen as a major factor on the outcome of the 2017 presidential polls.

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Only the Green Party says it will participate in the elections, as the other parties, which are allied to the ruling party, have already endorsed President Kagame to continue.

Several other parties and opposition politicians operate outside the country and are not recognised: Victoire Ingabire, seen as the voice of the opposition, is serving a 15-year sentence for genocide ideology and threatening state security.

READ: Jailed Rwandan opposition leader in plea to Arusha court

Frank Habineza, president of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda, admits that the opposition in Rwanda is weak, and that little has been done by politicians to challenge the government.

“The opposition in Rwanda is still fragile. DGPR is the only legally registered opposition party in the country. The opposition groups of FDU and PS Imberakuri, of Bernard Ntaganda, are fading away. They are extremely divided."

FDU is led by Ms Ingabire.

“We need to strengthen ourselves to reach out to all of them. The room for opposition is there, but it has to be demanded. We have to ask for it. No one will give it to us on a silver platter,” Mr Habineza told The EastAfrican.

Increased tolerance

Mr Habineza said that the RPF has, in recent years, become more tolerant to the opposition, even though it appears to be too late for them to reorganise and take part in the 2017 elections.

Opposition politicians like former prime minister Faustin Twagiramungu, and former allies of President Kagame like Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa and former secretary general of RPF Theogene Rudasingwa, continue to operate in exile.

The latter two formed the Rwanda National Congress, seen as the strongest opposition group outside Rwanda, but with the duo already sentenced in absentia by a military court, there is little chance that they can return to the country to participate in elections.

Mr Habineza said the ruling party RPF and the incumbent should not be allowed to sail through the 2017 elections without any challenge.

The other parties that are considered formidable, including the Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Party have already endorsed President Kagame to continue come 2017, and campaigned for the lifting of term limits.

“We will not allow RPF’s candidate to just sail through. It is not fair for the country. We are working on strategies of presenting a strong manifesto and a big opposition voice,” Mr Habineza said.

The Greens however say that they remain constrained by the country’s prohibitive electoral laws, which limit opposition or independent candidates on what they can do or achieve.

READ: Rwanda’s Green Party pushes for reforms ahead of polls

They have since petitioned Prime Minister Anastase Murekezi to influence the Cabinet to come up with reforms in electoral laws and laws governing political parties. The petition followed a previous bid which was turned down by parliament.

Under the current law, opposition political parties are barred from receiving external support, a law which the Green Party says limits parties that are constrained in terms of resources.

For parties or independent candidates to be represented in Parliament, they need to garner at least a 5 per cent vote countrywide, a threshold opposition and independent candidates say favours only the ruling and a few established parties.

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