On August 10, 2015, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni told his smiling Kenyan counterpart President Uhuru Kenyatta in a fully packed Ugandan Parliament that his mission upon securing a fifth elective term in office was to “wipe out” the opposition.

President Museveni spoke with confidence, his own smile appearing to mock the scattered opposition that at times attempted to heckle him — both sides apparently oblivious of the gruelling battle that was to follow in the campaign period in September.

President Museveni was to face his toughest battle in elective politics, as a resurgent Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), a three-time challenger, gave him a run for his money.

While President Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) camp took advantage of long stay in power and incumbency to pour money to voters, Dr Besigye was receiving crumpled notes and coins from his supporters.

Dr Besigye managed to increase his vote tally from a paltry 2.1 million (29 per cent) five years earlier in 2011 to 3.5 million (35 per cent) this year, but President Museveni won by 61.7 per cent.

More importantly however, the NRM party gained significantly against the opposition in both parliamentary and local government seats, meaning that while as an individual Dr Besigye gained, the opposition party lost.

Four days after he was declared winner, President Museveni told a press conference at his Rwakitura country home in Kiruhura District describing himself as “mission oriented” while the opposition was “not serious.” At that time, Dr Besigye was being held under an informal house arrest at his house in Kasangati, near Kampala.

President Museveni added that, “We don’t need these individuals. They should go to their homes and do other things.”

'Degenerating democracy'

Morris Ogenga Latigo a former opposition leader in the eighth parliament thinks the political crisis is even worse.

“It’s not just the opposition but our democracy that is degenerating. We thought we would have parties created on the basis of issues but we don’t,” said Prof Latigo.

Going into Uganda’s February General Election, the opposition boasted of having five political parties represented in parliament and about seven within local government structures. However, after the polls, two parties that each had an MP in parliament were knocked out while the others had their numbers either decline or remain stagnant.

FDC, the main opposition party, lost one parliamentary seat and prominent seats like that of secretary-general and leader of opposition to NRM opponents. Overall the party won 36 parliamentary seats.

The Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) party of two-time former president and independence prime minister Apollo Milton Obote retained its 10 members in the house but a faction led by Obote’s son Jimmy Akena campaigned for President Museveni.

READ: Museveni-Akena deal makes a case for Besigye-Mbabazi alliance

Mr Akena could formally work with the government and he claims to be the legitimate leader of the UPC party, but a faction allied to former UN ambassador Olara Otunnu is opposed to his leadership.

The Democratic Party (DP), the only other opposition party to retain a presence in the parliament, only managed to win 10 parliamentary seats. The Justice Forum Party (JEEMA) and the Conservative Party (CP) both lost their seats.

The current situation is a far cry from the eighth parliament where the opposition had about 60 MPs and several independent but opposition-leaning legislators.

As if in a bid to fulfil his mission, President Museveni appointed four opposition members to his new cabinet.

Betty Kamya, a presidential candidate in 2011 and leader of the Uganda Federal Alliance party was appointed Minister for Kampala; Betty Amongi, the wife of UPC’s Jimmy Akena and a strong UPC member, was appointed Minister for Lands; Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi of DP was appointed State Minister for Youth and Children Affairs; Jane Acheng, also of UPC, was included in the Cabinet.

“I am no longer sure if I can count UPC as opposition,” said Prof Latigo

'Economy drives politics'

Retired politician Edward Rugumayo sees no hope for the opposition in the current circumstances but expects a rebirth in the future.

The former member of the famous “Gang of Four” — made up of professors Yash Tandon and the late Dani Wadada Nabudere and Omwony Ojok — said “It is now politics of money, it is no longer politics of principle and these politicians in the opposition are generally poor so some or perhaps a bigger proportion of them will tend to follow the money, which is with the ruling party and the government.”

“When poverty reigns in a multi-party dispensation, political parties tend to shrink because they can’t sustain themselves, the economy drives politics,” he added.

Prof Rugumayo said parties will only begin to remerge and get stronger as the economy grows, a middle class forms and individuals are not swayed by financial considerations.

The advantage of incumbency, a history of militarism and dominance in parliament seem to have conspired against the opposition in Uganda.

From 1967, Obote ran a de-facto one-party state especially after he declared a Republic Constitution, then in 1971, Idi Amin overthrew Obote and ruled by decree. An attempt at resumption of multi-party democracy following the fall of Amin stuttered on amid a civil war and upon takeover, in 1986, President Museveni restricted political party activities. This meant that old parties only survived in name while new ones could not be registered for a full 20 years.

The Political Parties and Organisations Act provides for funding for political parties but in accordance with numerical strength of the party in parliament.

Towards the February elections, NRM received the lion’s share of party financing from the Electoral Commission at Ush8.2 billion ($2.4 million), the FDC, the majority opposition party received Ush1.4 billion ($417,000), UPC and DP received Ush309 million ($92,000) and Ush464 million ($138,000) respectively, while Jeema and CP got Ush30.9 million ($9,000) each. The next distribution will even be more skewed as NRM controls over 72 per cent of the 10th parliament.