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‘Tyranny of numbers’ in Kenya parliament agenda

Saturday August 19 2017
jubilee

President Uhuru Kenyatta, his deputy William Ruto and other Jubilee Party members in Nairobi. FILE PHOTO | NMG

By FRED OLUOCH

The 12th Parliament will be constituted on August 22, with a long list of delayed legislation including the implementation of the two-thirds gender rule topping the agenda.

The Leader of the Majority in the 11th parliament Aden Duale, said that the Jubilee Party — which has the majority seats — will use its numbers to push for the relevant law to implement the constitutional gender provisions.

Article 81(b) of the Constitution states that “Not more than two-thirds of the members of elective public bodies shall be of the same gender,” but the 11th parliament failed to implement the provision three times due to lack of consensus on how to go about it.

President Uhuru Kenyatta unsuccessfully tried to push the last parliament to pass the two-thirds gender rule before breaking for the August elections, after MPs in May last year failed in their second attempt to pass the constitutional provision.

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But now that the Jubilee Party has increased its numbers in the National Assembly and has a slight lead in the Senate, the 12th parliament is likely to be a rubber-stump parliament where the government agenda carries the day.

Tyranny of numbers

Already, Mr Duale has said the party has a chance to push government agenda at will, in what is seen as a repeat of the 2013 “tyranny of numbers” — a hypothesis that political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi used to explain how President Kenyatta would win in the first round of voting with a substantial majority.

But Makueni Senator, Mutula Kilonzo Jr told The EastAfrican that the Jubilee numbers are not a concern to the opposition because they only come in handy when the government wants to pass a law that is against the interest of the people.

Jubilee has 164 MPs, with a chance of getting an additional six of the 12 nominated members. Jubilee also has the support of Kanu, which won 10 seats, the Economic Freedom Party with five seats and Maendeleo Chap Chap which got four.

In the Senate, out of the 36 elective posts, Jubilee got 23 seats while opposition party the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) got 13. 

A total of 16 senators will be nominated by political parties, two members — one man and one woman, representing the youth; two members representing persons with disabilities; and the speaker who will be elected from outside the senate, but sponsored by a political party.

With a clear Jubilee majority, it is expected that the outgoing Speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi will retain his seat while the party will have to shop for another candidate since the former deputy speaker Dr Joyce Laboso won the Bomet Governor’s seat.

With the National Assembly having a total of 349 elected and nominated MPs, Jubilee would need to muster at least 232 MPs — both from within and from the independent and small parties — to reach unassailable majority capable of amending key provisions of the 2010 Constitution.

In the 11th parliament, Jubilee had 167 MPs compared with the opposition’s 141.

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