The departure of wanted Congolese warlord Bosco Ntaganda for The Hague to face charges at the International Criminal Court has sent a wave of panic across regional governments over what the man nicknamed the Terminator will reveal in the dock.

The US and Rwanda eventually reached a diplomatic agreement, handing over Gen Ntaganda to ICC officials who arrived in Kigali on Friday morning, facilitating a safe exit for the indictee from the US embassy in Kigali, where he had been holed up for four days.

READ: US urges Rwanda to cooperate with ICC on Ntaganda's transfer

Mr Ntaganda was whisked away in a well-planned operation that left the media flatfooted, ensuring that no single photo of the man who surrendered at the US embassy on early Monday morning was taken.

Dozens of journalists who had camped at Kigali International Airport left in frustration after the Congolese warlord was whisked to the tarmac through a restricted military entrance and put on a chartered flight bound for The Hague.

As Mr Ntaganda heads to ICC, uncertainty looms about what he will say in his defence to the four counts of war crimes and three counts of crimes against humanity that were brought against him, that could prove damaging to Kigali.

Meanwhile, observers fear the prospects for peace and stability in eastern Congo have become murkier following the deadly falling out within the ranks of the M23 rebels who mutinied in April 2012.

READ: M23 split likely to impact the DRC peace talks

It is this split that precipitated Mr Ntaganda’s eventual defeat by his archrival Sultani Makenga, the rebels’ military head, his subsequent flight to Rwanda and surprise “surrender” to the American embassy. The split has also weakened the rebel movement and exacerbated existing tensions and suspicions.

READ: Congolese warlord surrenders at US embassy in Kigali

Sources within M23 said that members, particularly those who were aligned to Bishop Jean-Marie Runiga, hitherto the rebels’ political head, have been required to re-pledge their allegiance and will need to tread carefully not to arouse any suspicions.

According to commentators, Mr Ntaganda, a feared fighter whose notoriety earned him the Terminator tag, may have information that could rip Kigali’s reputation apart, owing to reports he fought alongside President Paul Kagame’s then RPF rebels before he went on to become Rwanda’s proxy in the 1998-2003 war in eastern DR Congo, in which the crimes he is accused of were allegedly committed.

Kigali has consistently battled reports by international agencies including the UN accusing it of committing heinous crimes of nearly equal measure as the genocide it suffered in 1994. But President Paul Kagame’s administration has repeatedly denied all such accusations including, most recently, that it instigated and backed the M23 rebels.

READ: Kigali ‘wants autonomous state’ in east DRC

Rwanda’s Minister of Justice Tharcisse Karugarama told said that Kigali had no worries over Mr Ntaganda’s transfer to The Hague.

“Why should we worry? Mr Ntaganda is not Rwanda’s problem. All that is speculation and Rwanda refuses to be drawn into this speculation,” Mr Karugarama said.

Mr Ntaganda’s bizarre appearance at the American embassy in Kigali on Monday morning followed a week of fierce fighting between forces loyal to Bishop Runiga and Mr Makenga.

The latter, at the height of clashes in February, dismissed the former, allegedly for committing “high treason.” The charges accrue from, among other things, his decision to offer especially Mr Ntaganda political leverage to influence the decisions of the Movement at the highest level, to divert finances to him, and to recruit political and military leaders for him.

Two theories have emerged to explain how Mr Ntaganda found his way into the American embassy, which is located only a stone’s throw away from the president’s office in the leafy Kacyiru suburb.

According to the first theory, having successfully been cornered in Kibumba where he, Baudouin Ngaruye, hitherto Mr Makenga’s deputy, Bishop Runiga, other senior officials and their rank and file had established their bases, Mr Ntaganda managed to escape into the Virunga National Park, even as the others were forced to cut and dash to safety in Rwanda. Here, the theory goes, he trekked through the park and eventually sneaked into Rwanda through Ruhengeri, from where he found transport to Kigali.

This theory, however, is implausible for at least two key reasons:

Firstly, Rwanda’s army has been extremely alert ever since the rebellion broke out to guard against any elements of their arch-nemesis FDLR, who might be tempted to use it as cover to sneak into Rwanda and cause havoc.

Secondly, this alertness must have been heightened, in the particular case of Ruhengeri, because that is where its cash cow — the mountain gorilla, Rwanda’s top forex earner — lives. It is hardly likely that anyone, let alone such a high-profile figure as Mr Ntaganda, could have come through this route and gone undetected all the way to Kigali by an intelligence network that is famed for its thoroughness.

The second theory according to Johnnie Carson, US Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of African Affairs, is that Mr Ntaganda is suspected to have crossed into Rwanda along with Bishop Runiga and the rest after Mr Makenga outgunned them.

By Gaaki Kigambo and Edmund Kagire