The refusal by embattled DR Congo President Joseph Kabila to relinquish power on December 20 has plunged the country into a crisis. 

By Friday, the United Nations was accusing security forces of shooting dead some 40 civilians as they tried to quell anti-Kabila protests.

Yet many more of such fatalities are expected in a dangerously unfolding crisis, which observers say will be determined by who, between the opposition and government, marshals more strength in the streets.

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The opposition has been preparing for this confrontation for two years now, beginning in January 2015 when President Kabila first attempted to change the electoral law to postpone the elections. 

Kabila, too, has remained hell bent on extending his rule beyond December 19 – when his second and constitutionally last term ended – mostly through increasing reliance on military force.

In major protests in September, state security agents reportedly killed at least 48 people, injured 143 others, and arbitrarily detained up to 300. Protesters were calling on Kabila to respect the constitution and step down once his mandate ended. The UN said defence and security forces used excessive force in response to unarmed civilians.

Congolese political struggles

As they bear down on each other once more, both sides face serious challenges. According to the non-profit International Crisis Group (ICG), although streets protests have a long history in Congolese political struggles, they are prone to manipulation and seldom shift political dynamics.

“Protests also have had a dark side. State actors have often used and sometimes instigated violent street movements to discredit foes and allow poorly paid security forces to loot,” said ICG in its analysis of the role of street protests in Congolese politics released on October 13.

Moreover, ICG adds, lack of cohesion has made it doubly difficult for the opposition to mount and sustain public protests. This is without saying the biting economic situation, which makes only a few people able to participate. 

For Kabila, any further coercive measures against civilians are likely to amplify criticism against him and trigger more pressure from Western governments, which they have promised.

READ: France likely to seek EU sanctions against DR Congo's Kabila

Already, the European Union and United States have targeted sanctions at nine senior government officials. According to the EU, these have obstructed “a consensual and peaceful solution towards elections in DRC, including by acts of violence, repression or inciting violence, or by undermining the rule of law; planning, directing, or committing acts that constitute serious human rights violations or abuses in DRC.”

They are Évariste Boshab, Vice Prime Minister and Interior Minister, Kalev Mutond, director of the National Intelligence Agency, Delphin Kaimbi, the head of Military Intelligence, and Roger Kibelisa, an Interior Director of the National Intelligence Service.

Others include John Numbi, former National Inspector for the Congolese National Police and reportedly an influential Kabila advisor, Celestin Kanyama, the Kinshasa Police Commissioner, Ilunga Kampete, a commander of the Republican Guard, Maj. Gen Gabriel Amisi Kumba, a commander in the Congolese Army, Ferdinand Ilunga Luyoyo, a commander of the Congolese anti-riot body.

Rebel groups

According to some activists, such and more especially financial sanctions targeted at more persons in President Kabila’s inner circle have the ability to increase pressure on him to respect the Constitution and mitigate any further violence.

“You have the power and the chance to change the current situation in order to avoid Congo being the next Burundi, the next South Sudan, the next Central African Republic,” Fred Bauma, a member of Lutte pour le Changement (Struggle for Change, or Lucha), recently told the American Congress.

Lucha is at the heart of the “Bye Bye Kabila” campaign that has been most vigorous in the restive eastern part of the country.

Observers fear Kabila’s insistence on hanging onto power carries the risk of stimulating the political agendas of hundreds of armed groups that are domiciled there.

They add how this would drag DR Congo back to prolonged periods of plunder and instability that it had begun to emerge out of and spill over to the whole region as has happened before.

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Already, remnants of the M23 rebellion, who have been kept in Uganda since the outfit was defeated in 2013, have resumed their agitation to be returned home.

Recently, its military chief Sultani Makenga was rumoured to have vanished from Kampala and shown up at his bases around Goma, the capital of North Kivu. Although the Ugandan army, under whose auspices he lives, dismissed as false his rumoured disappearance, they did not prove that he was still around.

According to some humanitarian reports, eastern Congo is already jittery after renewed fighting reportedly broke out on Monday, December 19, when an armed group attacked government military positions.

The UN has pressed it upon the government, especially its security forces, to avoid in all ways turning on the people they are obliged to protect.

“We call on them to exercise restraint in line with their obligations under international human rights law related to the use of force during demonstrations. All responsible, at any level, for human rights violations must also be held accountable,” said Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, on December 17.

Like most of its neighbours, DR Congo has never known a peaceful transfer of power since gaining Independence in 1960.