10 key issues where Uganda election will be won or lost going by recent trends
Sunday February 7 2016
This election is President Yoweri Museveni’s to lose. But with recent opinion polls showing Dr Kizza Besigye gaining ground, we explore some of the issues that will determine the outcome. PHOTOS | FILE
The February 18 election in Uganda is President Yoweri Museveni’s to lose as he seeks to extend his 30-year stay in office, but with recent opinion polls showing his main rival Dr Kizza Besigye gaining ground, we explore some of the key issues that will determine the outcome.
Voter turnout: This will determine not just who wins election, but also the legitimacy of the government.
Demographics: Whoever can get the young people on their side will gain a serious advantage.
Voter blocs: None of the three leading contenders is able to win a solid geographic bloc.
Money: If poverty is the question then to many voters money is the answer.
Two horses and a pony: A late surge by Candidate Mbabazi could lead to a run-off.
Fear factor: Fear factor brought on by possibility of violence undermines voter turn-out.
Election mechanics: The credibility of the outcome will be determined by the process.
Campaign mechanics: Candidate Museveni has covered more ground than rivals, but it is what happens afterwards that matters.
Incumbency: Whatever the opposition promises, the NRM candidate can counter promise.
Viability of change: It is the proverbial choice between the devil you know and the angel you don’t.