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Last Chance: Door is closing on South Sudan cabals

Monday June 25 2018
By Charles Onyango-Obbo

South Sudan’s two warrior “princes,” President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar, arrived in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to try to salvage a moribund peace deal. It was their first meeting in nearly two years.

South Sudan, which became the world’s youngest country in 2011 when it gained Independence from Sudan after three decades of a bloody and devastating war, has paid a dear price for the Kiir-Machar feud.

In 2013 Kiir fell out with Machar, then his vice president, over the spoils of Independence and plunged the country into war again, complete with some of the worst ethnic cleansing Africa has ever seen.

Some estimates put the number of South Sudanese killed since 2013 at 300,000. Over four million people have been displaced from their homes, and up to 2.5 million have fled to neighbouring countries. With a population of 12 million, this means that, essentially, South Sudan is a dead country walking.

Both Kiir and Machar, and South Sudan’s myriad factions, have proved thoroughly unreliable. There’s almost no truce or peace agreement they will not break.

This time, the Kiir and Machar talks happened in a very changed environment and provided probably the last chance of peace.

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Global currents have favoured post-war reconstruction in Africa; the end of the Cold War enabled countries like Uganda and Ethiopia to capitalise on the wave to rebuild. Post-genocide reconstruction in Rwanda caught the tail end of that wind, then got propelled in the current of optimism and a global love affair with the continent that generated the Africa Rising wave.

The advantage those countries had was leaders who exploited the opportunity.

Becoming independent in the rubble of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and a backlash against globalisation, South Sudan needed wiser men to lead it.

It lost the opportunity with the death of its charismatic leader John Garang in 2005 following the peace deal that ended the civil war.

Today, though, some favourable regional currents are welling up. Somalia, despite continued deadly attacks by Al Shabaab, is in the best shape it has been in over 25 years, and it is no longer deluded to bet that it will be fully stable in a few years.

But perhaps most dramatic was the arrival on the scene of the youthful Abiy Ahmed Ali as Ethiopia’s new prime minister in April.

Apart from a list of domestic economic reforms and the olive branch he has extended to the opposition, Abiy has acted to finally end the 18-year-long bitter standoff with Eritrea.

Baby reformist steps

To the north, President Omar al-Bashir is moving to end Sudan’s international isolation, and has made baby reformist steps with the release of political prisoners. As his grip weakens, a more broadminded leadership will probably emerge in Khartoum.

Kiir’s main military backer, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, has his hands full at home, as he heads into what surely must be his sunset years.

Kenya is already in election mode for 2022, and a last-term President Uhuru Kenyatta is unlikely to spend much of his political currency on South Sudan.

The door is closing on Juba’s political cabals. Surely, even in their most insular moments, Kiir and Machar can still see that.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is publisher of Africapedia.com and explainer Roguechiefs.com. Twitter@cobbo3

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