The more Bashir runs, the tighter ICC’s noose will get around him

Ever since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant of arrest for President Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese leader has been remarkably — nay, impressively — defiant.

Bashir, who is wanted to stand trial for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur, has taken to travelling, it would seem, even more than before he was put on the ICC wanted list.

The African Union, a club that has some leaders who are responsible for more murders than Bashir is being blamed for, has rallied to his defence and resolved not to co-operate with the ICC.

Bashir is no fool, though. I suspect he no longer sleeps with both eyes closed.

Though he is flying around, he has been careful to stick mostly to dictatorships and countries that have not signed up to the ICC.

In Africa Botswana, one of the continent’s more democratic nations, is Bashir’s leading critic.

Bashir is not about to stop in Gaborone even for a refuelling stop on his way from Zimbabwe.

And, don’t expect that any of these days he will show up in New York to address the United Nations General Assembly, because he can easily be grabbed and whisked off to The Hague.

African leaders and apologist intellectuals might whine all they want about how the ICC is another neo-colonial instrument that is mainly targeting African butchers, but it wont be enough to save Bashir.

First, precedent is not on the Sudanese president’s side.

There is no one who has been indicted by the ICC in its relatively short history, and been able to carry on a normal life openly as Bashir is trying to do.

Most of them have eventually woken to the midnight knock on their door, or had to surrender at a roadblock laid to trap them.

So, knowing the risks, they live in hiding, shielded by the forest and hundreds of heavily armed and dangerous men as is the case with Uganda rebel leader Joseph Kony or those indicted warlords in the Balkans.

Secondly, being an African leader actually increases the possibility of his capture.

In that sense, the critics who say the ICC is anti-African are right, but the reason they are correct is entirely different.