By FRED OLUOCH

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Regional leaders head to Khartoum on August 5 for the signing of the final South Sudan peace agreement despite some opposition groups expressing dissatisfaction with the document.

The chapter on governance/power-sharing, which was resolved on July 25 in Khartoum, will be combined with that on security arrangements and parts of the collapsed 2015 agreement to form a comprehensive agreement.

But the issue of a referendum to decide on the number of states South Sudan faces serious logistical, security and funding challenges.

Elections are expected to be held within 180 days if the Independent Boundaries Commission does not reach a consensus, but the transitional government would be hard-pressed to mop up arms in the hands of civilians, repatriate refugees, issue identity cards and register voters within this period.

“We hoped that the interim period would be used for national healing but the referendum campaign will lead to division, violence and even fresh fighting. It was better just to leave that for the commission to decide,” said James Oryema, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) representative in Kenya.

But the power-sharing document shows that President Salva Kiir and the main rebel group led by Dr Riek Machar dropped some of their hardline positions that had held the talks dragging on for over a year.

The government conceded that the issue of the 32 states should go to a referendum; allowed the proposal of a lean cabinet of 35 ministers down from 55; allowed the proposal for five vice-presidents and accepted the federal principle by devolving more powers to the states.

Separate commands

But the government got its way by rejecting a powerful National Pre–Transitional Committee (NPTC), which initially was supposed to oversee the affairs of the country for the eight months before the onset of the 36-month transitional period.

However, the NPTC — which will comprise 10 members from the four groups — will still manage the funds for the implementation of various articles of the agreement drawn from oil proceeds and contributions from international donors, and report to the transitional government on a monthly basis.

The SPLM-IO dropped its push for 21 states and two armies with separate commands and accepted reunification of the fighting factions.

President Kiir will have 20 ministries, Dr Machar nine, the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) get three, Former Detainees land two and the rest of the opposition, one Cabinet post.

According to the proposals, parliament will comprise 550 lawmakers, 332 from Kiir’s side and 128 from Machar’s faction.

But the SSOA, comprising nine armed and unarmed groups, and the Former Detainees gained their demand for a lean government, but lost on their demand to revert to the original 10 states.

The issue of how many states South Sudan should have will be decided by the 15-member Boundaries Commission, who will study all alternatives between the current 32 created by President Kiir, the 21 by Dr Machar’s group and the 10 by the rest of the opposition.

The IBC will have 90 days to come up with the number states, failing which it will be automatically transformed into the Referendum Commission on Number and Boundaries of States to take the issue to a referendum in another 90 days.

Pagan Amum, the Former Detainees’ leader, said that allowing the issue of states to go to a referendum would be legitimising an illegality created by President Kiir, contrary to the 2015 agreement that was based on 10 states.

Challenges

Another challenge is whether Dr Machar will return to Juba despite being designated the first vice-president. While he had agreed to merge his forces into one national army, the chapter on security arrangements says that it will take four months to train an elite force to protect the VIPs.

Funding is also another challenge given that the US has declared that it will not fund an agreement that is struck between a few elite groups without including the views of the South Sudanese people and engaging civil society.

The White House says that the Trump administration remains sceptical whether President Kiir and Dr Machar are capable of overseeing a peaceful and timely transition to democracy and good governance.