High level corruption in Burundi’s private and public sectors is likely to trigger a new wave of political instability in the fragile country that will disrupt intra-East African Community trade.

A new analysis by the peace monitoring group Intentional Crisis Group (ICG) blamed ethnic-led corruption perpetuated by the Tutsi elite, which may lead to another round of civil war.

“Since Burundi became a republic in 1966, state capture, mostly by the Tutsi elite, has been at the centre of politics,” said Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director Thierry Vircoulon.

The Tutsi community makes up 14 per cent of the population, but controls political and economic power, a cause of regular conflict with the majority Hutu.

The most recent conflict ended in 2004 in a peace deal brokered by retired South African president Nelson Mandela. The subsequent elections brought to power a political party known as CNDD-FDD led by President Pierre Nkurunziza with a promise to transform the country through equitable distribution of resources including political representation. However, this has not happened.

The ICG analysis cited the case of a $500 million contract in 2010 for communications equipment for the presidency, the provinces, the army and Bujumbura airport that was reportedly signed in secret without involving the Minister for Communications.

Question of integrity

Although the contract was later cancelled, it raised governance integrity issues especially because it was worth more than the country’s revenue collection for 2011.

CNDD-FDD intended not only to transfer political power from the Tutsi’s to the Hutu’s but also to improve governance.

Corruption scandals involving CNDD-FDD dignitaries and state officials have watered down hope of a change in governance and more equitable wealth distribution. The deepening corruption crisis is discrediting post-conflict institutions and fuelling social and political resentment, notes the analysis titled Burundi: A Deepening Corruption Crisis.

Renewed instability in Burundi will be a blow to the progress of realising a fully functioning EAC common market. It will slow intra-regional trade, deny other countries access to its 8.4 million strong market, affect the country’s ability to contribute to the EAC Secretariat, precipitate a refugee crisis and open up new routes for illicit arms trafficking.

The country is already facing tough economic times with the inflation rate at 22 per cent in February up from 21.6 per cent in January.

On Wednesday, the country’s labour unions threatened to call a national strike to protest over 400 per cent increase in the prices of electricity and water.

The analysis by the ICG recommends strong political pressure to force governance reforms. Now that the anti-corruption agenda has become public policy, civil society should also actively pursue its watchdog role and organise mass mobilisation.