Even after an unprecedented inter-party co-operation helped Uganda’s opposition parties win 12 of the 19 by-elections that the Electoral Commission has held since 2011, there is no indication they intend to extend this “ganging up” approach to the 2016 elections.

Curiously, the wins included two in Luweero, which is supposed to be the bastion of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).

Political analysts argue that the opposition needs to focus on the other races apart from the presidency, which a recent study concluded they stand little chance to win in current circumstances.

“There is something to be said for participating in the presidential race for purposes of not appearing to boycott or chicken out from the competition while putting more work into capturing the ‘base’ of your opponent,” said one of the peer reviewers of Elections in a Hybrid Regime.

The 495-page book presents extensive and varied analyses of the 2011 elections. It concludes about elections are unlikely to change the top leadership in Uganda under the existing institutional framework.

Only smaller parties — two of six opposition parties that fielded candidates in the last presidential race — Uganda Federal Alliance and the People’s Progressive Party appear to be focused on investing more of their resources in parliamentary and local council seats.

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This, they say, aligns them to their core strategy to grow the parties from the grassroots upwards. 

“Instead of using my one or two billion shillings for the presidential race, to escort President Yoweri Museveni up to the gate of State House, if I use that money and get some 10 MPs in parliament, the party is growing, our ideology is growing,” said Beti Kamya, the president of UFA.

“A political party is a living entity that evolves and a strong one must ultimately outlive its founders. That is why we believe the people should own the party. When you build from up to bottom you are likely to build powerful parties,” said PPP secretary general Alira David Opii.

“So our intentions and interests are to field candidates in sub-county, district and parliamentary races while we keep our interest open to compete in the presidential race,” added Mr Alira.

The Democratic Party on its part is contemplating a boycott. It sees little hope in the absente of a level playing field. Uganda’s oldest party lost the LC V by election in Busia district on January 21. It insists it was grossly rigged out, which the Electoral Commission denies.

“We shall not immediately consider a boycott when our national executive council meets next month. But we will present a timeline against which our demands should be met. If that does not happen, then we will decide,” said Mathias Nsubuga, the party’s secretary general.

“We are competing with a general, a commander of the army he formed, which he remains in firm control of and uses for his purposes; a man who has refused to transition from a military to a civilian leader. This is the person we are accused of not doing enough to dislodge,” added Mr Nsubuga, who is the Bukoto South MP.